Sioshansi F.P. Smart Grid: Integrating Renewable, Distributed & Efficient Energy

continue to come down—possibly to less than half the current

cost by 2020.

A recent NERC reliability assessment [28] forecasts that

nearly 230 GW of new wind generation may be added across

the United States in the next decade—almost ten times the

total current installed capacity. The same report estimates that

over 30,000 miles of high voltage transmission will be needed

to support all new power plant additions, largely driven by

wind. NERC identifies the need for this transmission as one

of the biggest challenges facing the industry, along with

operational challenges such as the need for additional

ancillary services to manage the variability of wind resources.

New technologies will help to optimize the design, siting, and

operation of transmission lines to maximize utilization.

Studies are underway to explore methods for using both local

load control and storage to reduce the problems of wind

power's variability.

The power industry is beginning to carefully analyze the

barriers to rapid scale-up of wind, solar, plug-in electric

hybrid vehicles, and other clean technologies and the barriers

to managing distributed (e.g., rooftop solar) power sources.

Parallel impacts on transmission and distribution operations

must be evaluated to determine their true value in reducing

carbon emissions. Most studies indicate that when the

percentage of renewable sources on the grid reaches 15% or

more, substantial operational changes become necessary [37].

Reaching national goals of more than 30% still seems

daunting, but grid operators in other countries are already

gaining experience operating under these conditions.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is

working with the U.S. power industry to explore these issues

131

through formal stakeholder engagement with groups such as

the Western Governors Association, the U.S. Offshore Wind

Collaborative, the Global Wind Energy Council, the Great

Lakes Wind Collaborative, and many others. Recent reports

summarized comprehensive and detailed analysis of wind and

solar integration for both the Western and Eastern

interconnections [38]. The studies indicate that higher

penetrations of renewable generation are possible with

additional transmission infrastructure and various operational

changes. Several chapters in this volume examine the impact

of renewable energy generation and distributed generation.

Distributed Energy Resources

During this next decade the drive toward consumer-centric

energy systems, as well as expected cost reductions in PV,

will accelerate installation of rooftop solar systems. This may

also drive the move toward direct current “personal grids”

that, combined with local network batteries, will give

consumers the opportunity for clean critical power systems. A

recent study analyzes the full benefits of locating PV systems

at the edge of the grid, integrating them with smart grid

systems and capturing these additional benefits by increasing

predictability, reducing capacity requirements, and improving

distribution level operations [39].

For the smart grid, the ability to store electricity may be as

significant as the availability of information. For decades the

holy grail of engineers—the practical and cost-effective

storage of electricity—has been as elusive as any aspect of the

industry. However, recent breakthroughs in materials and

materials processing have shown promise in reaching this

challenging goal. With the investments currently being made

132

globally, storage, both mechanical and thermal, will likely be

a foundational component of the smart grid.

Although a few years old now, the Pearl Street report on

energy storage [40] is one of the most comprehensive

descriptions of both the technologies and markets for

electricity storage. The Pearl Street report looks at each of

these applications in detail and estimates a value for each. It

shows clearly how important it is to capture multiple value

streams. Storage devices that are networked and flexibly

dispatched for a variety of applications have the potential

both to drive down costs and increase value. This is one of the

main reasons why plug-in vehicles have received so much

attention: they eventually should be able to provide electricity

storage for their own use, as well as the grid, providing

opportunities to create other markets and applications. PJM,

the largest grid operator in the United States, has recently

proposed a demonstration project that will “grid-connect” up

to 1,000 electric-hybrid school buses, allowing them to be

charged off-peak and potentially to discharge to the grid

while sitting idle during the middle part of the day [41].

Historically, storage has been focused on individual

applications such as vehicles or bulk storage to ease the

variability of renewable resources. The economic value has

always been difficult to demonstrate, even with costs of the

technology projected to go down. The real value of storage is

much broader to grid operations: it may lead to improved

asset utilization for generation, improved provision of

ancillary services, better integration of renewable resources,

and congestion relief for transmission and distribution. Many

studies are exploring the value of storage [42].

133

Electric Vehicles

Chapters by Hindsberger et al. (Chapter 18) and Armstrong et al.

(Chapter 19) cover the issues involving penetration of large number of

EVs and intermittent renewable generation.

Depending on the design of the charging stations, a typical

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) or Electric Vehicle

(EV) could require almost as much power as a typical home,

meaning that neighborhoods that have several electric

vehicles may require upgraded infrastructure, especially in

densely populated urban and suburban areas with older

infrastructure. New, smarter infrastructure will give utility

operators more freedom to manage these new loads optimally

and minimize negative impacts. In late 2009, a coalition of

companies that support an aggressive move toward electrified

transportation published a report [43] outlining the benefits of

and barriers to rapid electrification of transportation in the

United States. While their position may not be entirely

neutral, the report gives a fairly complete and balanced

analysis of the benefits and impacts. They propose a realistic

scenario that shows 25% of all new light-duty vehicle sales

comprised of either EV or PHEV by 2020, with sales ramping

up quickly by that time (Figure 1.9). Their plan targets

approximately 90% of new vehicle light-duty sales being EV

or PHEV by 2030, which would require consideration of

serious policy changes to incentivize rapid switching by

consumers. This would also have a huge impact on utilities,

increasing the amount of energy required in 2030 by 10–15%

for transportation alone. In this scenario, the smart grid will

allow utilities to use primarily off-peak power for battery

charging, increasing asset utilization, and absorbing excess

renewable energy.

134

Figure 1.9

U.S. passenger vehicle sales by technology.

Source: Electrification Coalition, 2009

We Would Want the Smart Grid to Be Reliable

Despite its shortcomings, the existing grid—at least in

developed countries—provides nearly ubiquitous power with

reasonable quality and reliability to every consumer and every

load. This universal standard of service has been essential

over the last several decades, as consumers increasingly

added devices and equipment that are designed and built to

this standard. Our increasingly digital economy already

requires higher levels of reliability and power quality [44].

Yet the cost of providing this service will be prohibitive if

applied universally, as is common. To continue this universal

service paradigm, and to provide the level of power quality

and reliability needed to meet future loads, will necessitate

the construction of expensive “super grids”[45]. These “super

grids” will substantially increase the sophistication of

135

transmission and distribution equipment to maximize power

quality and minimize disruptions. A few countries, such as

Singapore and Japan, have moved in this direction more

rapidly than the United States and as a result have much more

expensive electricity. China now touts its “strong grid”

national strategy, which is similar in its objective to provide

universal quality and reliability to its rapidly growing

economy [46].

The alternative is a more market-driven paradigm in which

reliability is modulated to match load: high levels of power

quality and reliability are not universal, but are focused on a

very small percentage of consumer loads that specifically

require this level of service. In the smart grid, reliability

represents the initial foray into highly differentiated services

to consumers, which no longer represent broad ratepayer

classes, but rather are based on sophisticated classification

using diverse factors. This heterogeneous grid can provide

highly differentiated service to consumers, with value and

costs better aligned. Power quality and reliability could even

vary by location,

with each utility finding the appropriate

level for its varied groups of customers. Of course, electricity

prices would need to be structured to correspond to the

various levels of power quality and reliability that consumers

desire. One would also expect a basic level of power quality

to be provided. In this future world, consumers would pay for

these services as we now do in the highly differentiated

telecommunications industry that we've become accustomed

to, where everyone's “plan” is different.

Brandstatt et al. (Chapter 13) discuss varying network access prices by

location and its implications for the future smart grid.

136

Microgrids are increasingly being discussed as one innovative

technology that could support such a shift.

The Departments

of Defense and Homeland Security are also beginning to

drive more serious efforts to increase the reliability of loads

that are critical to national security. Certain communications

systems, for example, require essentially 100%

reliability—which is impossible to guarantee with the current

grid infrastructure. A grid that operates with heterogeneous

reliability might ensure that traffic lights and emergency

facilities would still function during a typical power outage or

a natural disaster.

Platt et al. (Chapter 8) discuss microgrids.

We Would Want the Smart Grid to Continue to

Support Our Economy and Society

The smart grid must enable every consumer—large and

small—to participate in optimizing the cost and performance

of their own use and of the entire grid. As with other industry

transformations, a fundamental challenge is engaging the

consumer in the transformation. The typical residential

consumer today adds new loads to the grid with little

understanding or regard for the production and delivery

required to supply the electricity for that new load. Whether

to power a new TV, computer, or electric car, consumers

view their electricity demand to be incidental (at best) to their

local utility's business or plans for expansion. Therein lays

one of the basic paradoxes that plague the power industry: no

single consumer, except for a few large industrial consumers,

has much impact on how the system operates, but consumers

137

collectively dominate the system design and operation. In

other words, a utility cannot afford to pay much to affect one

consumer's behavior, yet it is only by affecting each consumer

that the system can be changed.

As the power requirements evolve with the economy of the

twenty-first century, the simple distinction between

residential, commercial, and industrial consumers becomes

both less accurate and less convenient. Businesses are run

from homes with increasingly sophisticated electronics and

associated power needs. Health care occurs in homes

demanding higher reliability. Commercial buildings become

more sophisticated in their design and operation, demanding

more customized power supply and often including their own

local power supplies. The result is the emergence of new

markets for electricity technologies, solutions, and services,

and economic opportunities for innovative companies ready

to meet these diverse requirements.

Fortunately, technologies that already engage consumers in

other aspects of their lives can easily be adapted to manage

their electricity use. This is evidenced by companies like

Google, IBM, Cisco, and others finding new markets in the

power sector. Gadgets that are commonplace for

communication and entertainment can also inform us about

options for reducing our electricity use. Availability of

information on consumer use will also allow utilities to

analyze and segment users to better frame service and price

offerings.

Some predict that hundreds of market segments

will emerge with unique and highly customized

requirements—and hence highly customized products and

services. No longer would residential consumers be viewed as

one generic and homogeneous market. Rather, one can

138

imagine consumers being differentiated, for example, by

whether one has a preponderance of energy-efficient

appliances; whether one conducts business at home; or

whether one has critical medical devices in the home. The

line between commercial consumers and residential

consumers may become blurred as homes become more

differentiable, like businesses.

Hamilton et al. (Chapter 16) cover the consumer side of the meter, while

Harper-Slaboszewicz et al. (Chapter 15) discuss behavioral aspects of

getting consumers to engage with variable prices and react to

information provided through the smart grid.

In the transition to the smart grid, consumers will have the

opportunity to move from being passive participants to active,

interactive, and even trans-active customers, as their level of

sophistication increases. This does not mean that they will be

forced to make numerous decisions about energy use, but that

they will possess intelligent software that understands their

preferences and acts on their behalf. With richer information

that is easy to interpret, consumers will be able to tailor their

energy use to their needs and save money.

The Path to the Smart Grid

Smart grid concepts and technologies are increasingly being

considered as tools that can be used to achieve important

national, state, and local goals for energy efficiency,

renewable energy, and demand response while supporting

economic and societal needs. Changes will be based more on

experiment than on edict, more on emergent processes than

on engineering practices. Change—particularly change as

sweeping and promising as the smart grid offers—is neither

easy nor free. While these forces for change are largely

139

organic and uncontrolled, it does not excuse any of us from

thoughtful planning, careful anticipation, and assertive

leadership. Creating a clear vision for our electricity system

for decades ahead will force strategic decisions—ones that are

essential to our prosperity. Results will point to the best

paths—ones that enable power system builders and operators

to provide, and consumers to use, electricity more efficiently,

with large savings for the economy and the environment.

A spark of innovation has become more and more obvious

across the industry. New ideas, new technologies, and new

projects have emerged to push this innovation toward real

impacts. Traditional power sector vendors such as GE,

Siemens, ABB, Alstom, and Schneider Electric all have

announced smart grid initiatives as evidenced by a significant

increase in marketing efforts in the popular

media—highlighted by GE's scarecrow dancing along the

wires during a 2010 Super Bowl advertisement. Similarly, IT

companies such as IBM, Accenture, Cisco, Google, and

others are expanding traditional back-office products and

services into more comprehensive smart grid solutions, often

acquiring new companies and launching new product

offerings. And new startups such as Tendril, GridNet, Silver

Spring Networks, Smart Synch, GridPoint, eMeter, and others

are growing steadily. Of course many other companies—both

old and new—are providing storage devices, roof-top solar

panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles and charging

infrastructure, building automation, and on and on. All have

thoughtful business plans, good technologies, and staff with a

wealth of experience. They also have strong marketing

programs that reach utility executives and the average

consumer alike.

140

Sioshansi F.P. Smart Grid: Integrating Renewable, Distributed &amp; Efficient Energy

Подождите немного. Документ загружается.

Sioshansi F.P. Smart Grid: Integrating Renewable, Distributed & Efficient Energy