Sioshansi F.P. Smart Grid: Integrating Renewable, Distributed & Efficient Energy
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As highlighted by Bartels in the book's Preface, one clear and
common theme animates the vision of the
twenty-first-century grid: Information. Hence, the smart grid
is often used as the term for the twenty-first-century grid.
Over the past two decades, we've seen almost every industry
change radically. From package delivery, to consumer
banking, to retail sales, to airline travel, all have seen
substantial changes in their infrastructure—the way they
deliver services, the way they interact and engage consumers,
and the way they conduct business. The changes in these
industries rely not just on more information, but on better
information—more accurate, more timely, and two-way
communication that allows the “system operator” at the
enterprise level to plan, design, and operate faster, smarter,
and more efficiently. The end result is improved services,
more convenience, lower costs, and happier customers.
Customers’ engagement with the service provider—whether it
is the bank, the airline, the shipping company, the online
retailer—frequently results in improved relationships that are
win-win. The result is a stronger, more productive, and more
robust economy. Despite the occasional misuse of
information, whether intentional or inadvertent, the basic
underlying changes have been a driving force fueling
economic growth and prosperity.
The same principles apply to the electric power sector. With
better information comes the opportunity for rapid innovation
in utility operations. As described in other chapters of this
volume, utilities can plan future requirements much more
accurately, can design the system more efficiently and with
closer tolerances, and can operate it in entirely new and more
efficient ways. It also enables the option of empowering
consumers by providing information on when and how they
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use energy, and gives them the ability to align their use with
optimal system performance and diverse personal
preferences.
Of course with greater information comes the need for a
massive new information infrastructure to collect, transport,
manage, store, analyze, and display this information. Such a
nontrivial undertaking and investment require new thinking
and new processes, raising issues that the power industry has
only begun to understand and appreciate. Fortunately, other
industries have already addressed and solved much of these
issues for their own purposes, and the power industry can
build on this experience.
This chapter offers a brief overview of the changes we can
expect to see in the power industry over the next decade or
two. The section “An Inevitable Evolution” provides a
glimpse at the current state of the grid followed by the section
“Envisioning the Smart Grid: What Do We Want From It?”
laying out a vision of what a smart grid should include. The
section “Path to the Smart Grid” describes some of the key
efforts that are enabling the change and discusses efforts
going forward. The “Conclusion” provides a final view of the
expected changes.
An Inevitable Evolution
The electricity industry has done a superb job of building,
operating, and maintaining a complex infrastructure that
transports trillions of kWh of electricity across thousands of
miles at the speed of light. Adequate and reliable electricity
has been essential to creating economic prosperity.
Worldwide, it has made us healthier, safer, and more
comfortable by supporting innovations like indoor lighting
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and refrigeration [1]. The National Academy of Engineering
named electrification of the United States the greatest
twentieth-century engineering achievement—above the
airplane, the internet, the computer, and television [2]. The
same is true across the globe where economies and societies
have prospered in large part due to the availability of
electricity.
It's difficult to argue for a fundamental change to a system
that has served so many so well for so long. Yet for decades,
grid operators have run the system based on good estimates
from years of experience, rather than on real-time
information. This is not a criticism—it is the practical and
economic reality of operating such a complex yet delicate
system. Estimates of demand are often based on surrogate
measurements of production, accurate in the aggregate but
with little detail. At best consumer-level information was, and
in many places still is, measured monthly by manual readings
on the dials of analog meters.
Many studies over the last few years have described the need
to transform the electricity industry. These studies often talk
about the lack of investment in basic infrastructure, including
the transmission and distribution network, the need for
innovation, the aging equipment and workforce, the cost of
power interruptions, the need for emission reductions, and
more. All paint a dire picture in the hope that a “burning
platform” argument will create a mandate for action among
politicians and industry leaders. Undoubtedly, our needs for
electricity are shifting in certain ways. We rely on electricity
to fuel our increasingly digital economy and society—our
massive data centers, our industrial processes, our gadgets,
and the way we communicate with each other. Our demand
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for energy is increasing worldwide [3] as shown in Figure 1.2
and that energy must be reliable to a higher degree than ever
before to meet our manufacturing, information and
communication needs [4]. However, when the lights, heat, air
conditioning, and television all come on nearly 100% of the
time, it's hard to feel a sense of urgency for change.
Figure 1.2
World energy consumption 1990–2035 (Quads).
Source: International Energy Outlook, 2010
In fact, we are at a stage where the global movement toward a
smarter grid has already begun. Change is coming, perhaps
not so much by national mandates and policy changes as by
focused technology evolution and market forces. While
various forms of government mandates have forced
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technology changes, they are often short-lived and can have
unintended negative effects. Technological progress continues
apace—entrepreneurs and researchers are eager to transform
the power sector with innovation [5]. Technology and
manufacturing advances are now making it cheaper and easier
to install sensors throughout the electricity infrastructure with
inherent communication capabilities—providing more, better,
and closer to real-time information. The energy efficiency of
household appliances like refrigerators and air conditioners
has increased considerably in the last few decades [6]. The
cost per watt of installed photovoltaics (PV) continues to
fall—as shown in Figure 1.3—in many locations approaching
grid parity with traditional power sources [7].
Figure 1.3
Decrease in PV module price and cumulative manufactured capacity,
1976–2009.
Source: Mints 2009 and Mints 2010
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These incremental improvements in the efficiency and cost
effectiveness of using electricity are bolstered by rare but
influential disruptive technologies—and occasionally new
business models—that change markets and expectations,
sometimes meeting unknown needs and creating entirely new
markets [8]. Electric vehicles might be considered a
disruptive innovation, and cost-effective, large-scale energy
storage—when commercially viable—most certainly will be.
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The combination of incremental and radical improvements
will lead to sweeping changes across the power sector.
Moore's Law [9] and the Law of Accelerating Returns [10]
both predict exponential growth in evolutionary processes, as
the products of each stage contribute to the next. In other
words, innovations like microgrids, covered in Chapter 8, by
Platt et al., and electric vehicles, Chapter 18 and Chapter 19,
may be only the beginning. Our power ecosystem is evolving,
inevitably, to offer us more information, more options, and
more choice. We can only dimly see the future state from
where we are now.
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Chapter 5 by Wang and Wang covers storage in more detail.
In the coming years, aging grid components will need to be
replaced, and new generation and transmission infrastructure
will be built to meet increasing demand and clean energy
goals [11]. Unconfirmed stories tell of utilities
special-ordering discontinued parts at high cost in lieu of
investing in newer technologies. Yet shifting priorities,
evolving technologies, and the experience of other industries
suggest that we won't replace old systems with old systems.
Additionally, new innovative companies are finding
increasing value in meeting consumer diversity with
customization [12]. Industries from package delivery to
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airline travel are being infused with more and better
information. And pilot projects worldwide are beginning to
demonstrate both a vision for, and the potential of, the
twenty-first-century grid [13]—exemplified by one such pilot
project for the Sydney metropolitan area in NSW, Australia.
Envisioning the Smart Grid: What Do We Want
From It?
As described in the following chapters of this book, the
twenty-first-century grid—hereafter referred to as the smart
grid—will include a complex network of technologies and
systems, hardware and software, communications, and
controls that taken together will provide both producers and
consumers a high level of visibility and control. Being
inherently flexible and adaptable to unanticipated future
changes, it will include technologies that we already know
and technologies yet to be created. Much of our efforts to date
have focused on technologies and not on broader questions
about energy management solutions—because we understand
technologies better, because both vendors and utilities tend to
gravitate to technologies, and mostly because we lack a robust
vision to serve as a framework for meeting comprehensive
goals.
It is less useful to prescribe the technologies of the smart grid
than to describe what this new infrastructure and ecosystem
must accomplish. One can refer to previous studies by NETL,
DOE, EPRI, and many others for detailed descriptions of
technology solutions. It's difficult to predict details of what
changes will take place, in what time frame, and with what
results, but it's extremely important for us to have a vision of
where we want to go. By focusing on these priorities, we can
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create concrete goals and metrics while providing vital
directional and correctional guidance to early deployments.
As consumers we all have a rich set of expectations for our
electric power service. We want it to be always available and
inexpensive. We want it not to pollute our cities or
neighborhoods and would prefer not to see power lines. If we
see ourselves as “green” consumers, we also want our
electricity use to have limited impact on the global ecosystem.
If we are on fixed incomes, we want costs to stay the same or
go down. And if we are operating a business, we want 100
percent reliability without exceptions.
In other words, if we envision a grid that will meet our needs
in the twenty-first century, we would want it to be:
• Affordable
• Clean
• Reliable
• Capable of supporting our evolving economy and society
Exactly how these priorities will shape the smart grid will
vary based on factors like geography, generation profiles,
building and user characteristics, economics, innovation, and
policies.
We Would Want the Smart Grid to Be Affordable
Across decades and continents, the electric industry has
effectively created an implied contract that obligates utilities
to provide as much electricity as consumers desire—at a
reasonable cost. Consumers and their advocates worry about
who will bear the risk of smart grid and clean energy
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investments: utilities, governments (taxpayers), or ratepayers
[14]. The chapter by Felder (Chapter 4) covers these issues at
length. The question is, how do we add information and
communications technologies, new energy technologies, and
better service to the grid, but still make power less expensive?
The short answer is by using those new technologies to
provide more capabilities optimized for energy efficiency,
operational efficiency, and demand management.
Energy Efficiency
From sweaters in the 1970s, to double-pane windows and heat
pumps in the 1980s, to LEED standards and Energy Star
appliances in the 1990s, conservation and energy efficiency
have been with us since President Nixon declared his goal for
“Energy Independence” in his 1974 State of the Union
address [15]. And yet the typical U.S. consumer is still very
wasteful in the use of electricity. Many of us now have more
efficient appliances and relatively well-insulated homes, but
most still use incandescent lights and have added a variety of
power-hungry digital appliances that are often left on even
when not being used. A recent study by the American Council
for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) showed that
average or better economic growth could be supported for the
next 20 years and beyond with little or no increase in energy
consumption [16].
While the concept of energy efficiency is understood by many
consumers, their use of energy tends to be driven more by
their desire for comfort and convenience than by concern for
its effect on system costs or emissions reductions. Various
campaigns for higher efficiency in homes, businesses, and
transportation, like Energy Star [17], have had noticeable
impact, but there are still millions of homes, businesses, and
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public buildings that use significantly more energy than is
needed to maintain their comfort, health, security, and
productivity [18]. Most consumers are still unlikely to pay $5
for a light bulb when they can get one for $1, let alone pay
thousands of dollars for a heat pump when they can get a
good furnace plus air conditioning for much less. And they
are certainly more likely to pay to re-carpet their house or add
a new deck than to add insulation to their walls and ceilings.
McKinsey & Company [19] found that nontransportation
energy use could be reduced by more than 20% over the
projected demand by 2020 (Figure 1.4), and that energy
management systems are low-cost, high-impact players in the
efficiency supply curve. Smarter technologies and a smarter
grid are critical to unlocking this great potential—the smart
grid should actively identify and mine energy efficiency
opportunities throughout the entire system, using better
information for better decisions. The ACEEE estimates that
smart technologies saved 775 billion kWh in 2006 alone [20].
The same study shows that existing and near-commercial
semiconductor-based appliances would support an economy
in 2020 that is 35% larger than it is today, while using 7%
less energy.
Figure 1.4
Energy efficiency supply curve.
McKinsey & Company 2009
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