16.4
Nonlinear Considerations
531
potential energy into eddy kinetic energy enables a baroclinic system to in-
tensify and eventually attain finite amplitude. Finite horizontal displacements
then invalidate the linear description on which Eady's model is based and
which predicts exponential amplification to continue indefinitely--analogous
to vertical displacements under hydrostatically unstable conditions (Sec. 7.3).
Second-order effects then modify the zonal-mean state, which in turn limits
subsequent amplification of the baroclinic system.
As a baroclinic disturbance amplifies, horizontal displacements (e.g.,
Fig. 16.3b) become increasingly exaggerated. Warm tropical air is eventually
folded north of cold polar air, as is revealed by the distribution of potential
vorticity on March 2, 1984 (Fig. 12.10). Deformations experienced by those
air masses steepen potential temperature gradients separating warm and cold
air (e.g., Fig. 12.4), which intensifies the accompanying fronts. Continued ad-
vection leads to warm and cold air eventually encircling the low, with the
warm sector overturning at the junction of the warm and cold fronts. (Cloud
cover in Fig. 9.21 provides a textbook example.) The cyclone in Fig. 16.5 then
occludes,
with warm and cold fronts overlapping in the center of the system.
The occlusion actually develops when the surface trough (not shown) sepa-
rates from the junction of warm and cold fronts and deepens farther back
into the cold air mass (see, e.g., Wallace and Hobbs, 1977). This structure
marks the mature stage of the cyclone's life cycle because the surface trough
is then positioned beneath the upper-level trough, which eliminates the sys-
tem's westward tilt and hence its release of available potential energy--now
analogous to a neutral Eady mode with c~ > c~ C. Cold and warm air drawn
into the occlusion are then wound together and mixed horizontally.
Figure 16.6 shows sequences of IR and water vapor imagery while the
disturbance in Fig. 16.5 matures. At 1500 GMT on March 2 (Figs. 16.6a
and b), the cold front is approaching the warm front near their junction,
with the warm sector clearly defined. Twelve hours later, the 700-mb trough
has deepened (not shown). The warm sector in IR and water vapor imagery
(Figs. 16.6c and d) has then been sheared to the northwest, where cold dry
air is being entrained with warm moist air in the occlusion that has formed.
This process culminates in cold and warm air at the occlusion winding up
into a spiralbsimilar to behavior in a cylindrical annulus at high rotation
(compare Fig. 15.7f). By 1200 GMT on March 3 (Figs. 16.6e and f), air inside
the occlusion has wound up into a vortex, which is seen to separate from
the remaining warm sector to its south and east. Interleaving bands of cold
and warm air that are apparent in both cloud cover and moisture symbolize
efficient horizontal mixing. One day later (Figs. 1.15 and 1.23), that mass of
air has become nearly homogeneous. The 700-mb trough has then weakened
and high cloud cover that developed earlier through sloping convection is
dissipating. Only a broad spiral of equatorward-moving air remains, drawn
cyclonically around the now-diffuse anomaly of potential vorticity, in which
cold and warm air have been mixed.