140 5 Shallow-Layer Clouds
minutes to an hour of when they are created. After this brief look at the role of
turbulence, we will consider the problem of forecasting the formation, persis-
tence, and dissipation of fog. The forecasting problem is concerned with the
grosser aspects
ofthe
fog, such as its depth and total water content, on time scales
of an hour to days. In Sec. 5.1.3 we consider the forecasting offog formation over
underlying soil undergoing nocturnal radiative cooling and its dissipation as the
sun rises and solar insolation increases. Then in Sec. 5.1.4 we examine arctic fog
and stratus formation, which illustrates what happens if the diurnal variations are
removed and the fog layer evolves into steady-state fog or stratus under the
conditions of a constant lower-boundary temperature and constant weak solar
heating.
5.1.2 Turbulent Mixing in Fog
The strong role of turbulence in fog is illustrated by the problem of attempting to
modify the local visibility in a warm fog consisting entirely of small nonsuper-
cooled drops.
114 In this problem, the thermodynamics and dynamics are greatly
simplified. The thermodynamic equation is completely ignored and replaced by
the simple assumption that the mean temperature is constant over the time scale
of interest
(~1/2
h). The effect of turbulence is represented by a constant mixing
coefficient
(K
= 4 m
2
S-I).
Except for the turbulence, the air is assumed to be
almost calm. Thus, the equation of motion is replaced by assuming all the mean
wind components are constant and so small that advection terms are negligible in
all the equations. With these assumptions, the only predictive equations are the
water-continuity equations, which must be written in a form that allows the effects
of artificial seeding to be represented.
The water-continuity equations are formulated in very explicit form, taking into
account both nucleus size and drop size [as in Eqs. (3.58) and (3.59)]. We consider
an example in which a hypothetical pre-existing fog occurs in a 100-m-deep, 300-
m-wide region. The pre-existing natural fog drops are assumed to contain conden-
sation nuclei small enough that their composition is irrelevant. The liquid water
content of the initial fog is 0.3 g
m-
3
•
The temperature is assumed to be
lOoC.
The
assumed size spectrum is such that the horizontal visibility is initially 85 m.
It
is
assumed that over a volume 50 m wide by 40 m deep an aircraft distributes 0.35 g
m
? of droplets containing very large NaCI nuclei. According to the diffusional
114 Here, we take as an example the study of Silverman (1970), who was looking for a technique for
artificially clearing fogs from airport runways. In a paper presented at a conference on weather
modification, he reported on efforts to find a theoretical basis for such a technology. A somewhat
similar effort was reported by Tag
et al. (1970) at the same conference. This type of research was
abandoned shortly thereafter and never formally published. Perhaps the explanation for the abrupt
termination of work on warm-fog seeding is the preliminary result that the technique would not have
been effective since a hole created in a warm fog by artificial seeding would be filled up as a result of
the natural turbulence almost as fast as it could be created. The termination of the research would thus
appear to be a further effect of the turbulence.
It
should be noted that this discouraging result applies
only to warm fogs. As will be pointed out later in this section, seeding of cold (i.e., supercooled) fogs
turns out to be more effective because it is aided by the glaciation process.