Potter T.D., Colman B.R. (co-chief editors). The handbook of weather, climate, and water: dynamics, climate physical meteorology, weather systems, and measurements

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DEDICATION AND

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Many people have assisted in the production of this Handbook—the Contributing

Editors, the Authors, our editors at Wiley, friends too numerous to mention, and

our families who supported us durin g the long process of completing this work.

Professor Peter Shaffer, University of Washington, is owed deep appreciation for his

untiring generosity in sharing his experience and talent to solve many problems

associated with this large project. They all deserve much credit for their contribu-

tions and we want to express our deep thanks to all of them.

Finally, we want to dedicate this work to Tom Lockhart, the Contributing Editor

of the Measurements part of the Handbook. Tom passed away in early 2001 and we

regret that he will not be able to see the results of his efforts and those of his

colleagues in ﬁnal form.

To m Potte r

Brad Colman

xxi

CONTRIBUTORS

STEVEN A. ACKERMANN, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostic Center, 1225 West

Dayton Street, Madison, WI 53706-1695

MANDA ADAMS, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Atmospheric

and Ocean Sciences, 1225 West Dayton Street, Madison, WI, 53706-1695

W. D . B

ACH, Jr., Army Research Program, AMXRL-RO-EN, P.O. Box 12211,

Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211

R. A. B

AXTER, 26106 Alejandro Road, Valencia, CA 91355

RAIG F. B OHREN, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Mete orology,

College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, 503 Walker Building, University

Park, PA 16802-5013

ORDON BONAN, NCAR, Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000

RED V. B ROCK, Oklahoma Climate Survey, 100 East Zboyd Street, Room 1210,

Norman, OK 73019

H. B

ROOKS, NOAA/NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069

OHN R. CHRISTY, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Earth Sciences Center,

Huntsville, AL 35899

OBERT E. DICKINSON, Georgia Tech, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences,

Atlanta, GA 30332-0340

xxiii

NOLAN J. DOESKEN, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric

Sciences, Colorado Climate Center, Fort Collins, CO 80523

C. D

OSWELL III, NOAA/NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069

D. D

OWELL, NOAA/NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069

AWRENCE B. DUNN, National Weather Service, 2242 West North Temple, Salt Lake

City, UT 84116-2919

AV I D R. EASTERLING, NCDC, 151 Patton Avenue, Room 120, Asheville, NC

28801-5001

AUL M. FRANSOLI, 1112 Pagosa Way, Las Vegas, NV 8912

RANT W. G OODGE, P.O. Box 2178, Fairview, NC 28730

OHN GYAKUM, McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic

Sciences, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2K6

W. H. H

AGGARD, 150 Shope Creek Road, Asheville, NC 28805

OHN HALLETT, Desert Research Center, Atmospheric Sciences Center, 2215

Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89512-1095

ACKSON R. HERRING, NCAR, Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000

LAN L. HINCKLEY, Campbell Scientiﬁc Inc., 815 West 1800 North, Logan, UT

84321-1784

R. H

OLLE, NOAA/NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069

OHN HOREL, University of Utah, Meteorology Depa rtment, 135 South 1460 East,

Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0110

B. J

OHNS, NOAA/NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069

D. J

ORGENSON, NOAA/NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069

UGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, Department of Meteorology, 3433

Computer and Space Sciences Building, College Park, MD 20742-2425

HOMAS R. KARL, NCDC, 151 Patton Avenue, Room 120, Asheville, NC 28801-

5001

RISTINA KATSAROS,NOAA=AOML, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL

33149

AUL KUSHNER, GFDL, Princeton Forrestal Route, P.O. Box 308, Princeton, NJ

08542-0308

HOMAS J. LOCKHART, deceased

ALTER A. LYONS, FMA Research Inc., 46050 Weld County Road 13, Fort Collins,

CO 80524

xxiv CONTRIBUTORS

FRANK D. MARKS, Jr., NOAA Hurricane Research Division, 43001 Rickenba cker

CSWY, Miami, FL 33149

HOMAS B. MCKEE, Colorado State University, CIRA, Foothills Campus, Fort

Collins, CO 80523-1375

ERALD MEEHL, NCAR, Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000

OHN MITCHELL, Meteo rology Ofﬁce, Hadley Center, London Road, Bracknell,

Berkshire RG12 2SY

OHN W. N IELSEN-GAMMON, Texas A&M University, Department of Atmospheric

Sciences, 3150 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-3150

AROLD D. ORVILLE, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, 501 East St.

Joseph Street, Rapid City, SD 57701-3995

OBERT PINCUS, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostic Center, 1225 West Dayton

Street, Madison, WI 53706-1 695

RTHUR L. RANGNO, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of

Washington, Box 351640, Seattle, WA 98195

OBERT M. RAUBER, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of

Atmospheric Sciences, 105 South Gregory Street, Urbana, IL 61801-3070

COTT J. RICHARDSON, Oklahoma Climate Survey, 100 East Zboyd Street, Room

1210, Norman, OK 73019

URRY SALBY, University of Colorado, Box 311, Boulder, CO 80309-0311

DWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, JISAO, 4909 25th Avenue NW,

Box 35 4235, Seattle, WA 98195-4235

OSEPH W. S CHIESL, 9428 Winterberry Lane, Fairfax, VA 22032

D. S

CHULTZ, NOAA/NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069

D. S

TENSRUD, NOAA/NSSL, 1313 Halley Circl e, Norman, OK 73069

YLE SWANSON, Geosciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI

53201

OBERT N. SWANSON, 1216 Babel Lane, Concord, CA 94518-1650

EVIN TRENBERTH, NCAR, Climate Analysis Section, Box 3000, Boulder, CO

80307-3000

OSEPH TRIBBIA, NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000

REG TRIPOLI, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Atmospheric and

Oceanic Sciences, 1225 W. Dayton Street, Madi son, WI, 53706-1695

EFFREY B. WEISS, NCAR, Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000

CONTRIBUTORS xxv

S. WEISS, NOAA/NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069

L. W

ICKER, NOAA/NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069

ARLE R. WILLIAMS, FMA Research Inc., 46050 Weld County Road 13, Fort

Collins, CO 80524

OSH WURMAN, 1945 Vassar Circle, Boulder, CO 80305

OBERT YOUNG, RM Young Co., 2801 Aeropark Drive, Traverse City, MI 49686

D. Z

ARAS, NOAA/NSSL, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069

DWARD J. ZIPSER, University of Utah, Department of Meteorology, 135 South

1460 East, Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0110

xxvi CONTRIBUTORS

SECTION 1

DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY

Contributing Editor: Joseph Tribbia

CHAPTER 1

OVERVIEW—ATMOSPHERIC

DYNAMICS

JOSEPH TRIBBIA

The scientiﬁc study of the dynamics of the atmosphere can broadly be deﬁned as the

attempt to elucidate the nature and causes of atmospheric motions through the laws

of classical physics. The relevant principles are Newton’s second law of motion

applied to a ﬂuid (the atmosphere), the equation of mass continuity, the ideal gas

law, and the ﬁrst law of thermodynamics. These principles are developed in detail in

the contribution by Murry Salby. Since the empirical discovery and mathematical

statement of these laws was not completed until the middle of the nineteenth century,

as deﬁned above, atmospheric dynamics was nonexistent before 1875. Nonethel ess,

attempts at applying dynamical reasoning using principles of dynamics appeared as

early as 1735, in a work discussing the cause of the trade winds. Hadley’s contribu-

tion and a complete histor y of theories of the atmospheric general circulation can be

found in the monograph by Lorenz (1967).

The recognition that the laws enumerated above were sufﬁcient to describe and

even predict atmospheric motions is generally attributed to Vilhelm Bjerknes. He

noted this fact in a study (1904) detailing both the statement of the central problem

of meteorology (as seen by Bjerknes), weather prediction, and the system of equa-

tions necessary and sufﬁcient to carry out the solution of the central problem. The

chapter by Eugenia Kalnay describes the progress toward the solution of the central

problem made since 1904 and the c urrent state-of-the-art methods that marry the

dynamical principles spelled out by Bjerknes and the computational technology

brought to applicability by John von Neumann, who recognized in weather predic-

tion a problem ideally suited for the electronic compu ter.

If Bjerknes’ central problem and its solution were the sole goal of dynamical

meteorology, then the chapters by Salby and Kalnay would be sufﬁcient to describe

Handbook of Weather, Climate, and Water: Dynamics, Climate, Physical Meteorology, Weather Systems,

and Measurements, Edited by Thomas D. Potter and Bradley R. Colman.

ISBN 0-471-21490-6 # 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

both the scientiﬁc content of the ﬁeld and its progress to date. However, as noted

above, atmospheric dynamics also includes the search for dynamical explanations of

meteorological phenom ena and a more satisfying explanation of why weather

patterns exist as they do, rather than simply Force ¼(mass)(acceleration). The

remaining chapters in the pa rt demonstrate the expansion of thought required for

this in three ways. The ﬁrst met hod, exempliﬁed by Paul Kushner’s chapter, is to

expand the quantities studied so that important aspects of atmospheric circulation

systems may be more fully elucidated. The second method, exempliﬁed by the

chapters of Gerry Meehl and Kyle Swanson, develops dynamical depth by focusing

on particular regions of Earth and the understanding that can be gained through the

constraints imposed by Earth’s geometry. The third method of expanding the reach

of understanding in atmospheric dynamics is through the incorporation of tech-

niques and ideas from other related scientiﬁc disciplines such as ﬂuid turbulence

and dynamical systems. These perspectives are brought to bear in the chapters of

Jackson Herring and Jeffrey Weiss, respectively.

The focus of the chapter by Kushner is vorticity and potential vorticity. Anyone

familiar with the nature of storms, e.g., both tropical and extratropical cyclones, will

note the strong rotation commonly associated with these circulations. As Kushner

shows, the local measure of rotation in a ﬂuid can be quantiﬁed by either the

vorticity or the related circulation. The recognition of the importance of circulation

and vortic ity in atmospheric systems can be traced at least as far back as von

Helmholtz (1888). However, the most celebrated accomplishment in the ﬁrst half

of the twentieth century within atmospheric dynamics was the recognition by Carl G.

Rossby (1939) that the most ubiquitous aspects of large-scale atmospheric circula-

tions in middle latitudes could be succinctly described through a straightforward

analysis of the equation governing vorticity. Rossby was also one of the ﬁrst to see

the value of the dynamical quantity, denoted by Ertel as potential vorticity, which, in

the absence of heating and friction, is conserved by ﬂuid parcels as they move

through the atmosphere. The diagnostic analysis and tracking of this quantity

forms the basis of many current studies in atmospheric dynamics, of both a theore-

tical and observational nature, and Kushner’s chapter gives a concise introduction to

these notions.

The chapters by Meehl and Swanson review the nature of motions in the tropics

and extratropics, respectively. These geographic areas, distinguished from each other

by their climatic regimes, have distinctive circulation systems and weather patterns

that necessitate a separate treatment of the dynamics of each region. The dominant

balance of forces in the tropics, as discussed by Meehl, is a thermodynamic balance

between the net heating=cooling of the atmosphere by small-scale convection and

radiation and the forced ascent= descent of air parcels that leads to adiabatic cooling=

heating in response. This thermodynamic balance is sufﬁcient to explain the mean

circulations in the equatorial region, the north–south Hadley circulation and east–

west Walker cell, the transient circulations associated with the El Nin

o–Southern

Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the monsoon circulations of Australia and Asia,

and the intraseasonal Madden–Julian Oscillation. Meehl also explains the inter-

actions among these circulations.

4 OVERVIEW—ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS

In contrast to the tropics, the main focus in the extra-tropics are the traveling

cyclones and anticyclones, which are the dominant cause of the weather ﬂuctuations

seen at midlatitudes in all seasons except summer. These variations, which are

symbolized on weather maps with the familiar high- and low pressure centers and

delimiting warm and cold fronts, are dynamically dissected by Swanson and ex-

plained in terms of inherent instabilities of the stationary features that arise due to

the uneven distribution of net radiative heating, topography, and land mass over

Earth’s surface. In the process of dynamically explaining these systems, Swanson

makes use of the quasi-geostrophic equations, which are a simpliﬁcation of the

governing equations derived by Salby. This quasi-geostrophic system is a staple

of dynamical meteorology and can be formally derived as an approximation of

the full system using scale analysis (cf. Charney, 1948, or Phillips, 1963). The

advantage of such reduced equations is twofold: the reduction frequently leads to

analytically tractable equations as shown by Swanson’s examples and, with fewer

variables and degrees of freedom in the system, it is almost always easier to directly

follow the causal dynamical mechanisms.

The chapters by Herring and Weiss bring in paradigms and tools from the physics

of ﬂuid turbulence and the mathematics of dynamical systems theory. The entire

ﬁeld of atmospheric dynamics is but a subtopic within the physics of ﬂuid dynam ics.

The study of ﬂuid motions in the atmosphere, ocean, and within the ﬂuid earth is

frequently referred to as geophysical ﬂuid dynamics (GFD), so it is not surprising

that ideas from ﬂuid turbulence would be used in atmospheric dynam ics, as well as

in the rest of GFD. What is different in the application in the large-scale dynamics of

the atmosphere is the notion of viewing the atmosphere as a turbulent (nearly) two-

dimensional ﬂow. The perspective given by Herring was conceived in the late 1960s

by George Batchelor and Rober t Kraichnan, and further developed by C. Leith,

Douglas Lilly, and Herring. Prior to this time it was thought that two-dimensional

turbulence was an oxymoron since turbulence studied in the laboratory and observed

in nature is inherently three dimensional. As Herring shows, the two-dimensional

turbulence picture of the atmosphere has enabled a dynamical explanation of the

spectrum of atmospheric motions and elucidated the growth in time of forecast

errors, which initiate in small scales and propagate up the spectrum to contaminate

even planetary scales of motion. This notion of forecast errors contaminating the

accuracy of forecasts was ﬁrst investigated by Philip Thompson (1957) using the

methodology of Batchelor’s statistical theory of homogeneous turbulence. Herring’s

chapter is a summary of subsequent developments using this methodology.

A seminal study by Edward Lorenz (1963) is the predecessor of the review given

by Weiss, detailing the use of a dynamical system’s perspective and deterministic

chaos in quantifying the predictability of the atmosphere. Lorenz’ study was the

starting point for two research ﬁelds: the application of dynamical systems theory to

atmospheric predictions and the mathematical topic of deterministic chaos. Weiss’

chapter summarizes the scientiﬁc developments relevant to atmospheric dynamics

and climate and weather prediction since 1963.

In any brief summarization of an active and growing ﬁeld of research as much, or

more, will be left out as will be reviewed. The chapters presented in this part are to

OVERVIEW—ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS 5