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ɂɇɋɌɂɌɍɌ ɗɄɈɇɈɆɂɄɂ

ɉȿɊȿɏɈȾɇɈȽɈ ɉȿɊɂɈȾȺ

ȼ.ɉ. ɇɨɫɤɨ

ɗɤɨɧɨɦɟɬɪɢɤɚ ɞɥɹ ɧɚɱɢɧɚɸɳɢɯ

Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɵɟ ɩɨɧɹɬɢɹ, ɷɥɟɦɟɧɬɚɪɧɵɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɵ, ɝɪɚ-

ɧɢɰɵ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɢɦɨɫɬɢ,

ɢɧɬɟɪɩɪɟɬɚɰɢɹ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɨɜ

Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ

2000

ɂɇɋɌɂɌɍɌ ɗɄɈɇɈɆɂɄɂ

ɉȿɊȿɏɈȾɇɈȽɈ ɉȿɊɂɈȾȺ

ȼ.ɉ. ɇɨɫɤɨ

ɗɤɨɧɨɦɟɬɪɢɤɚ ɞɥɹ ɧɚɱɢɧɚɸɳɢɯ

Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɵɟ ɩɨɧɹɬɢɹ, ɷɥɟɦɟɧɬɚɪɧɵɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɵ, ɝɪɚ-

ɧɢɰɵ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɢɦɨɫɬɢ,

ɢɧɬɟɪɩɪɟɬɚɰɢɹ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɨɜ

Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ

2000

ɂɧɫɬɢɬɭɬ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɤɢ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɚ

Ɉɫɧɨɜɚɧ ɜ 1992 ɝ.

ɍɱɪɟɞɢɬɟɥɢ: Ⱥɤɚɞɟɦɢɹ ɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɚ

ɩɪɢ ɉɪɚɜɢɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɟ ɊɎ

Ⱦɢɪɟɤɬɨɪ: ȿ.Ɍ.Ƚɚɣɞɚɪ

ɇɨɫɤɨ ȼɥɚɞɢɦɢɪ ɉɟɬɪɨɜɢɱ

- ɤɚɧɞɢɞɚɬ ɮɢɡɢɤɨ-ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɧɚ-

ɭɤ, ɫɬɚɪɲɢɣ ɧɚɭɱɧɵɣ ɫɨɬɪɭɞɧɢɤ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɤɨ-ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɮɚɤɭɥɶɬɟɬɚ

Ɇɨɫɤɨɜɫɤɨɝɨ ɝɨɫɭɞɚɪɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɭɧɢɜɟɪɫɢɬɟɬɚ ɢɦ. Ɇ.ȼ.Ʌɨɦɨɧɨɫɨɜɚ. Ⱥɜɬɨɪ

ɛɨɥɟɟ 40 ɧɚɭɱɧɵɯ ɪɚɛɨɬ, ɫɨɚɜɬɨɪ ɭɱɟɛɧɨɝɨ ɩɨɫɨɛɢɹ “Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɵɟ ɩɨɧɹɬɢɹ ɢ

ɡɚɞɚɱɢ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɤɢ”.

ɉɪɟɩɨɞɚɟɬ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɟɬɪɢɤɭ ɫ 1994 ɝɨɞɚ. ȼ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɟɟ ɜɪɟɦɹ ɱɢɬɚɟɬ ɤɭɪɫɵ ɥɟɤ-

ɰɢɣ ɩɨ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɟɬɪɢɤɟ ɧɚ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɤɨ-ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɮɚɤɭɥɶɬɟɬɟ ɆȽɍ, ɧɚ

ɮɚɤɭɥɶɬɟɬɟ ɦɟɧɟɞɠɦɟɧɬɚ Ɇɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɭɧɢɜɟɪɫɢɬɟɬɚ (ɝ. Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ) ɢɜ

ɂɧɫɬɢɬɭɬɟ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɤɢ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɚ.

ɇɚɫɬɨɹɳɚɹ ɪɚɛɨɬɚ ɢɡɞɚɧɚ ɧɚ ɫɪɟɞɫɬɜɚ ɝɪɚɧɬɚ, ɩɪɟɞɨɫɬɚɜ-

ɥɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɂɧɫɬɢɬɭɬɭ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɤɢ ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɚ Ⱥɝɟɧɬ-

ɫɬɜɨɦ ɋɒȺ ɩɨ ɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɦɭ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɸ

Ʉɨɦɩɶɸɬɟɪɧɵɣ ɞɢɡɚɣɧ: Ⱥ. Ⱥɫɬɚɯɨɜ

ISBN 5-93255-027-9

Ʌɢɰɟɧɡɢɹ ɧɚ ɢɡɞɚɬɟɥɶɫɤɭɸ ɞɟɹɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɶ ɋɟɪɢɹ ɂȾ ʋ 02079 ɨɬ 19 ɢɸɧɹ 2000

ɝ.

103918, Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ, Ƚɚɡɟɬɧɵɣ ɩɟɪ., 5

Ɍɟɥ. (095) 229–6413, FAX (095) 203–8816

E-MAIL – root@iet.ru, WEB Site – http://www.iet.ru

ɈȽɅȺȼɅȿɇɂȿ

ɉɪɟɞɢɫɥɨɜɢɟ ........................................................................................... 6

ɑɚɫɬɶ 1. Ɉɰɟɧɢɜɚɧɢɟ ɢ ɩɨɞɛɨɪ ɦɨɞɟɥɟɣ ɫɜɹɡɢ ɦɟɠɞɭ

ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɦɢ ɛɟɡ ɩɪɢɜɥɟɱɟɧɢɹ

ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɧɨ-ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɜ ............................................. 7

1.1. ɗɤɨɧɨɦɟɬɪɢɤɚ ɢ ɟɟ ɫɜɹɡɶ ɫ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɬɟɨɪɢɟɣ ..................... 7

1.2. Ⱦɜɟ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟ: ɦɟɪɵ ɢɡɦɟɧɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɢ ɫɜɹɡɢ............................ 10

1.3. Ɇɟɬɨɞ ɧɚɢɦɟɧɶɲɢɯ ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɨɜ. ɉɪɹɦɨɥɢɧɟɣɧɵɣ

ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪ ɫɜɹɡɢ ɦɟɠɞɭ ɞɜɭɦɹ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ

ɮɚɤɬɨɪɚɦɢ....................................................................................... 18

1.4. ɋɜɨɣɫɬɜɚ ɜɵɛɨɪɨɱɧɨɣ ɤɨɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɢ, ɜɵɛɨɪɨɱɧɨɣ

ɞɢɫɩɟɪɫɢɢ ɢ ɜɵɛɨɪɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɚ

ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ ..................................................................................... 34

1.5. «Ɉɛɪɚɬɧɚɹ» ɦɨɞɟɥɶ

ɩɪɹɦɨɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɫɜɹɡɢ................................... 40

1.6. ɉɪɨɩɨɪɰɢɨɧɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɫɜɹɡɶ ɦɟɠɞɭ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɦɢ........................... 43

1.7. ɉɪɢɦɟɪɵ ɩɨɞɛɨɪɚ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɵɯ ɦɨɞɟɥɟɣ ɫɜɹɡɢ ɦɟɠɞɭ

ɞɜɭɦɹ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɚɦɢ. Ɏɢɤɬɢɜɧɚɹ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɚɹ ɫɜɹɡɶ............................ 49

1.8. Ɉɱɢɫɬɤɚ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ. ɑɚɫɬɧɵɣ

ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ ............................................................ 60

1.9. ɉɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɨɟ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɟ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɜ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ

ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɫɜɹɡɢ .................................................................................. 62

1.10. ɇɟɥɢɧɟɣɧɚɹ ɫɜɹɡɶ ɦɟɠɞɭ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɦɢ..................................... 66

1.11. ɉɪɢɦɟɪ ɩɨɞɛɨɪɚ ɦɨɞɟɥɟɣ ɧɟɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɫɜɹɡɢ,

ɫɜɨɞɹɳɢɯɫɹ ɤ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ................................................... 73

1.12. Ʌɢɧɟɣɧɵɟ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɫ ɧɟɫɤɨɥɶɤɢɦɢ

ɨɛɴɹɫɧɹɸɳɢɦɢ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɦɢ ...................................................... 80

ɑɚɫɬɶ 2. ɋɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɜɵɜɨɞɵ ɩɪɢ ɫɬɚɧɞɚɪɬɧɵɯ

ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɢɹɯ ɨ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɧɨɣ ɫɬɪɭɤɬɭɪɟ

ɨɲɢɛɨɤ ɜ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ........................................ 85

2.1. ȼɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɧɨɟ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɨɲɢɛɨɤ ....................................... 85

2.2. Ƚɚɭɫɫɨɜɫɤɨɟ (ɧɨɪɦɚɥɶɧɨɟ) ɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟ ɨɲɢɛɨɤ ɜ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ

ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ....................................................................... 92

2.3. ɑɢɫɥɨɜɵɟ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɢ ɫɥɭɱɚɣɧɵɯ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧ

ɢ ɢɯ ɫɜɨɣɫɬɜɚ.................................................................................. 98

2.4. ɇɨɪɦɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɵɟ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɫ ɧɟɫɤɨɥɶɤɢɦɢ

ɨɛɴɹɫɧɹɸɳɢɦɢ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɦɢ .................................................... 104

2.5. ɇɨɪɦɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɚɹ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɹ: ɞɨɜɟɪɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɟ

ɢɧɬɟɪɜɚɥɵ ɞɥɹ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɨɜ ................................................. 113

2.6. Ⱦɨɜɟɪɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɟ ɢɧɬɟɪɜɚɥɵ

ɞɥɹ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɨɜ:

ɪɟɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ.............................................. 118

2.7. ɉɪɨɜɟɪɤɚ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡ

ɨ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹɯ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɨɜ ....................................................... 126

2.8. ɉɪɨɜɟɪɤɚ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɨɜ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɢ

ɢ ɩɨɞɛɨɪ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɫ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ F-ɤɪɢɬɟɪɢɟɜ ..................... 136

2.9. ɉɪɨɜɟɪɤɚ ɡɧɚɱɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɢ ɩɨɞɛɨɪ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɫ

ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɨɜ ɞɟɬɟɪɦɢɧɚɰɢɢ.

ɂɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɨɧɧɵɟ ɤɪɢɬɟɪɢɢ ....................................................... 147

2.10. ɉɪɨɜɟɪɤɚ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡ ɨ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹɯ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɨɜ:

ɨɞɧɨɫɬɨɪɨɧɧɢɟ ɤɪɢɬɟɪɢɢ ............................................................ 158

2.11. ɇɟɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ, ɫɜɹɡɚɧɧɵɟ ɫ ɩɪɨɜɟɪɤɨɣ

ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡ ɨ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹɯ

ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɨɜ ........................................ 164

2.12. ɂɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɨɰɟɧɟɧɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɞɥɹ

ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ.......................................................................... 172

ɑɚɫɬɶ 3. ɉɪɨɜɟɪɤɚ ɜɵɩɨɥɧɟɧɢɹ ɫɬɚɧɞɚɪɬɧɵɯ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɢɣ

ɨɛ ɨɲɢɛɤɚɯ ɜ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ. Ʉɨɪɪɟɤɰɢɹ

ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɵɜɨɞɨɜ ɩɪɢ ɧɚɪɭɲɟɧɢɢ ɫɬɚɧɞɚɪɬɧɵɯ

ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɢɣ ɨɛ ɨɲɢɛɤɚɯ ........................................................... 180

3.1. ɉɪɨɜɟɪɤɚ ɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɞɨɛɪɚɧɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ

ɢɦɟɸɳɢɦɫɹ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɦ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ:

ɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɵ.................................................................... 180

3.2. ɉɪɨɜɟɪɤɚ ɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɞɨɛɪɚɧɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɢɦɟɸɳɢɦɫɹ

ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɦ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ: ɮɨɪɦɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ

ɩɪɨɰɟɞɭɪɵ .................................................................................... 194

3.3. ɇɟɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɨɞɨɛɪɚɧɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ:

ɩɪɢɦɟɪɵ ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɹ............................................................... 204

3.4. Ʉɨɪɪɟɤɰɢɹ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɵɜɨɞɨɜ

ɩɪɢ ɧɚɥɢɱɢɢ

ɝɟɬɟɪɨɫɤɟɞɚɫɬɢɱɧɨɫɬɢ (ɧɟɨɞɧɨɪɨɞɧɨɫɬɢ

ɞɢɫɩɟɪɫɢɣ ɨɲɢɛɨɤ)...................................................................... 214

3.5. Ʉɨɪɪɟɤɰɢɹ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɵɜɨɞɨɜ ɩɪɢ

ɚɜɬɨɤɨɪɪɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɨɲɢɛɨɤ ................................................ 223

3.6. Ʉɨɪɪɟɤɰɢɹ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɵɜɨɞɨɜ ɩɪɢ ɧɚɥɢɱɢɢ

ɫɟɡɨɧɧɨɫɬɢ. Ɏɢɤɬɢɜɧɵɟ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟ......................................... 235

Ɂɚɤɥɸɱɟɧɢɟ......................................................................................... 247

ɋɩɢɫɨɤ ɥɢɬɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ........................................................................... 248

Ⱥɥɮɚɜɢɬɧɵɣ ɭɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɶ.................................................................... 249

ɉɊȿȾɂɋɅɈȼɂȿ

ɉɪɟɞɥɚɝɚɟɦɨɟ ɭɱɟɛɧɨɟ ɩɨɫɨɛɢɟ ɢɦɟɟɬ ɫɜɨɟɣ ɰɟɥɶɸ ɨɛɟɫɩɟɱɢɬɶ ɛɚɡɭ

ɞɥɹ ɢɡɭɱɟɧɢɹ ɜɜɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɩɨɥɭɝɨɞɨɜɨɝɨ ɤɭɪɫɚ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɟɬɪɢɤɢ, ɤɨɝɞɚ ɜ ɪɚɫ-

ɩɨɪɹɠɟɧɢɢ ɩɪɟɩɨɞɚɜɚɬɟɥɹ ɢɦɟɟɬɫɹ ɜɫɟɝɨ ɩɨɪɹɞɤɚ 12 ɥɟɤɰɢɣ ɢ ɧɟɤɨɬɨ-

ɪɨɟ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɱɚɫɨɜ ɩɪɚɤɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɡɚɧɹɬɢɣ. ɉɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ ɨɬ ɱɢɬɚɬɟɥɹ ɧɟ

ɬɪɟɛɭɟɬɫɹ ɧɢɤɚɤɢɯ ɩɪɟɞɜɚɪɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɧɢɣ ɢɡ ɬɟɨɪɢɢ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɢ

ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɤɢ. ɑɬɨ ɤɚɫɚɟɬɫɹ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɢ

ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ

ɚɥɝɟɛɪɵ, ɬɨ ɠɟɥɚɬɟɥɶɧɨ, ɱɬɨɛɵ ɱɢɬɚɬɟɥɶ ɢɦɟɥ ɯɨɬɹ ɛɵ ɧɟɤɨ-

ɬɨɪɨɟ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɨ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɧɨɣ ɢ ɢɧɬɟɝɪɚɥɟ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɨ ɦɚɬɪɢɰɚɯ ɢ

ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢɹɯ ɧɚɞ ɧɢɦɢ. ɋɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ, ɚɤɰɟɧɬɵ ɜ ɢɡɥɨɠɟɧɢɢ ɫɦɟɳɚɸɬ-

ɫɹ ɜ ɫɬɨɪɨɧɭ ɪɚɡɴɹɫɧɟɧɢɹ ɛɚɡɨɜɵɯ ɩɨɧɹɬɢɣ ɢ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɞɭɪ ɫɬɚ-

ɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɫ ɩɪɢɜɥɟɱɟɧɢɟɦ ɛɨɥɶɲɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ

ɢɥɥɸɫɬɪɚɬɢɜɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɨɜ. ȼ ɷɬɨɦ ɨɬɧɨɲɟɧɢɢ ɞɚɧɧɨɟ ɭɱɟɛɧɨɟ ɩɨɫɨɛɢɟ

ɛɥɢɡɤɨ ɩɨ ɞɭɯɭ ɤ ɢɦɟɸɳɟɣɫɹ ɜ ɪɭɫɫɤɨɦ ɩɟɪɟɜɨɞɟ ɤɧɢɝɟ Ʉ. Ⱦɨɭɝɟɪɬɢ

«ȼɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ ɜ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɟɬɪɢɤɭ» (1997), ɤɨɬɨɪɚɹ ɩɪɟɞɧɚɡɧɚɱɟɧɚ ɞɥɹ ɢɡɭɱɟ-

ɧɢɹ ɝɨɞɨɜɨɝɨ ɤɭɪɫɚ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɟɬɪɢɤɢ ɢ ɤɨɬɨɪɭɸ ɦɨɠɧɨ ɪɟɤɨɦɟɧɞɨɜɚɬɶ ɞɥɹ

ɩɨɫɥɟɞɭɸɳɟɝɨ ɢɡɭɱɟɧɢɹ ɜɨɩɪɨɫɨɜ, ɧɟ ɨɯɜɚɱɟɧɧɵɯ ɜ ɪɚɦɤɚɯ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɟɝɨ

ɩɨɫɨɛɢɹ.

ɋ ɰɟɥɶɸ ɩɨɫɬɟɩɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɜɜɟɞɟɧɢɹ ɫɬɭɞɟɧɬɨɜ ɜ ɤɪɭɝ ɩɨɧɹɬɢɣ ɢ ɦɟɬɨ-

ɞɨɜ

ɷɤɨɧɨɦɟɬɪɢɤɢ, ɜ ɩɟɪɜɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ ɩɨɫɨɛɢɹ ɜɨɨɛɳɟ ɧɟ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɸɬɫɹ

ɩɨɧɹɬɢɹ ɬɟɨɪɢɢ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɢ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɤɢ. ɂ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ

ɤɨɝɞɚ ɞɚɥɶɧɟɣɲɟɟ ɢɝɧɨɪɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɷɬɢɯ ɩɨɧɹɬɢɣ ɜ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɟ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ

ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɫɬɚɧɨɜɢɬɫɹ ɩɨɩɪɨɫɬɭ ɧɟɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɵɦ, ɞɚɟɬɫɹ ɧɟɨɛɯɨɞɢɦɵɣ ɦɢ-

ɧɢɦɭɦ ɫɜɟɞɟɧɢɣ ɢɡ ɷɬɢɯ ɞɢɫɰɢɩɥɢɧ. ȼɬɨɪɚɹ ɱɚɫɬɶ ɩɨɫɨɛɢɹ ɩɨɫɜɹɳɟɧɚ

ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɢɸ ɢ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɦɭ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɭ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɵɯ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɦɨ-

ɞɟɥɟɣ ɩɪɢ ɤɥɚɫɫɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɢɹɯ

ɨ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ. ȼ

ɬɪɟɬɶɟɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɸɬɫɹ ɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɢ ɮɨɪɦɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢ-

ɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɵ ɜɵɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɪɹɞɚ ɧɚɪɭɲɟɧɢɣ ɤɥɚɫɫɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɨɠɟ-

ɧɢɣ ɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɵ ɤɨɪɪɟɤɰɢɢ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɵɜɨɞɨɜ ɩɪɢ ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɟɧɢɢ

ɬɚɤɢɯ ɧɚɪɭɲɟɧɢɣ.

ɉɨɫɨɛɢɟ ɧɚɩɢɫɚɧɨ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɤɭɪɫɚ ɥɟɤɰɢɣ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɣ ɱɢɬɚɥɫɹ

ɚɜɬɨɪɨɦ ɧɚ ɩɪɨɬɹɠɟɧɢɢ ɪɹɞɚ ɥɟɬ ɜ Ɇɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɦ ɭɧɢɜɟɪɫɢɬɟɬɟ (ɝ.

Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ), ɢ ɥɟɤɰɢɣ ɞɥɹ ɚɫɩɢɪɚɧɬɨɜ ɂɧɫɬɢɬɭɬɚ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦ

ɩɟɪɟɯɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɚ.

ɑȺɋɌɖ 1. ɈɐȿɇɂȼȺɇɂȿ ɂ ɉɈȾȻɈɊ ɆɈȾȿɅȿɃ

ɋȼəɁɂ ɆȿɀȾɍ ɉȿɊȿɆȿɇɇɕɆɂ ȻȿɁ

ɉɊɂȼɅȿɑȿɇɂə ȼȿɊɈəɌɇɈɋɌɇɈ-

ɋɌȺɌɂɋɌɂɑȿɋɄɂɏ ɆȿɌɈȾɈȼ

1.1. ɗɄɈɇɈɆȿɌɊɂɄȺ ɂ ȿȿ ɋȼəɁɖ ɋ

ɗɄɈɇɈɆɂɑȿɋɄɈɃ ɌȿɈɊɂȿɃ

ɗɤɨɧɨɦɟɬɪɢɤɚ (Econometrics) - ɫɨɜɨɤɭɩɧɨɫɬɶ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɜ ɚɧɚ-

ɥɢɡɚ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɦɟɠɞɭ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɦɢ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɹɦɢ

(ɮɚɤɬɨɪɚɦɢ) ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɪɟɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɫ ɢɫ-

ɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ ɚɩɩɚɪɚɬɚ ɬɟɨɪɢɢ ɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɢ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ

ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɤɢ. ɉɪɢ ɩɨɦɨɳɢ ɷɬɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɜ ɦɨɠɧɨ ɜɵɹɜɥɹɬɶ ɧɨɜɵɟ,

ɪɚɧɟɟ ɧɟ ɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɵɟ ɫɜɹɡɢ, ɭɬɨɱɧɹɬɶ ɢɥɢ ɨɬɜɟɪɝɚɬɶ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɵ ɨ ɫɭ-

ɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɦɟɠɞɭ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ ɩɨɤɚ-

ɡɚɬɟɥɹɦɢ, ɩɪɟɞɥɚɝɚɟɦɵɟ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɬɟɨɪɢɟɣ.

ɉɭɫɬɶ, ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɦɵ ɢɦɟɟɦ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɨ ɪɚɡɦɟɪɚɯ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɚɝɚɟ-

ɦɨɝɨ ɞɨɯɨɞɚ ( disposable personal income) DPI ɢ ɪɚɫɯɨɞɨɜ ɧɚ

ɥɢɱɧɨɟ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɟ (personal consumption) C ɞɥɹ

ɫɟɦɟɣɧɵɯ

ɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜ, ɬɚɤ ɱɬɨ

DPI

, ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ, ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɬ ɪɚɫ-

ɩɨɥɚɝɚɟɦɵɣ ɞɨɯɨɞ ɢ ɪɚɫɯɨɞɵ ɧɚ ɥɢɱɧɨɟ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɟ i -ɝɨ ɫɟɦɟɣ-

ɧɨɝɨ ɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɚ.

ɉɪɨɫɬɟɣɲɟɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɶɸ ɫɜɹɡɢ ɦɟɠɞɭ DP

ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɥɢ-

ɧɟɣɧɚɹ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɫɜɹɡɢ

CDPI 

ɝɞɟ

- ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɚɹ ɩɨɫɬɨɹɧɧɚɹ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧɚ , 0<

<1, ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢ-

ɡɭɸɳɚɹ ɜ ɞɚɧɧɨɦ ɤɪɭɝɟ ɫɟɦɟɣɧɵɯ ɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜ ɢɯ ɫɤɥɨɧɧɨɫɬɶ ɤ ɩɨ-

ɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɸ, ɫɜɹɡɚɧɧɭɸ ɫ ɬɪɚɞɢɰɢɹɦɢ ɢ ɩɪɢɜɵɱɤɚɦɢ, ɚ

“ɚɜɬɨɧɨɦɧɨɟ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɟ“.

Ɉɞɧɚɤɨ, ɟɫɥɢ ɪɚɡɦɟɫɬɢɬɶ ɧɚ ɩɥɨɫɤɨɫɬɢ ɜ ɩɪɹɦɨɭɝɨɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɢɫ-

ɬɟɦɟ ɤɨɨɪɞɢɧɚɬ ɬɨɱɤɢ



DPI C

ɫ ɚɛɫɰɢɫɫɚɦɢ

DPI

ɢ ɨɪɞɢɧɚ-

ɬɚɦɢ

( ɬɚɤɨɟ ɪɚɫɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɢɟ ɬɨɱɟɤ ɧɚɡɵɜɚɟɬɫɹ ɞɢɚɝɪɚɦɦɨɣ

ɪɚɫɫɟɹɧɢɹ - scatterplot), ɬɨ, ɤɚɤ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɨ, ɷɬɢ ɬɨɱɤɢ ɜɨɜɫɟ ɧɟ ɛɭɞɭɬ

ɥɟɠɚɬɶ ɧɚ ɨɞɧɨɣ ɩɪɹɦɨɣ ɜɢɞɚ

CDPI



ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸ-

ɳɟɣ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɫɜɹɡɢ. ȼɦɟɫɬɨ ɷɬɨɝɨ, ɨɧɢ ɛɭɞɭɬ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɜɵ-

ɜɚɬɶ ɨɛɥɚɤɨ ɪɚɫɫɟɹɧɢɹ, ɜɵɬɹɧɭɬɨɟ ɜ ɧɟɤɨɬɨɪɨɦ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɢɢ (ɫɦ.

Ɋɢɫ.1.1). ȼ ɬɚɤɨɦ ɫɥɭɱɚɟ ɫɨɨɬɧɨɲɟɧɢɟ ɦɟɠɞɭ

DPI

ɩɪɢɧɢ-

ɦɚɟɬ ɮɨɪɦɭ



CDPIin

iii

 

DE H

,,,1 

(ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ), ɝɞɟ ɫɥɚɝɚɟɦɨɟ



HDE

ii i

CDPI 

ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɟɬ ɨɬɤɥɨɧɟɧɢɟ ɪɟɚɥɶɧɨ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɵɯ ɪɚɫɯɨɞɨɜ ɧɚ

ɩɨɬɪɟɛɥɟɧɢɟ

ɨɬ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ



DPI

ɩɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɵɜɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɝɢ-

ɩɨɬɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɶɸ ɫɜɹɡɢ ɞɥɹ i-ɝɨ ɫɟɦɟɣɧɨɝɨ ɯɨɡɹɣ-

ɫɬɜɚ. ɗɬɢ ɨɬɤɥɨɧɟɧɢɹ ɨɬɪɚɠɚɸɬ ɫɨɜɨɤɭɩɧɨɟ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɟ ɧɚ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬ-

ɧɵɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ

ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɚ ɞɨɩɨɥɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ, ɧɟ

ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɟɦɵɯ ɩɪɢɧɹɬɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɶɸ ɫɜɹɡɢ.