ashetoldmeonOctober8,hewasconvincedthePresidentwouldinfactmake
somemoveonNovember1,thoughhewasevidentlynoclearerthanIjustwhatit
was.OnOctober8,Isuggestedto Nixonthatheannounceareporttothepeople
foraroundNovember1.Thiswouldhavetheadvantageofmaintainingand
perhapsheighteningthesenseofdeadlineinHanoiandMoscow,forwhatever
benefitthismightbringinunexpectedNorthVietnameseconcessions.On
October13,theWhiteHouseannouncedthatthePresidentwouldbegivinga
majorspeechtoreviewVietnampolicyonNovember3.(Thedatewaschosen
becauseNovember2wouldbethedayoftheNewJerseygubernatorialelection,
andNixondidnotwishtotriggeralargeturnoutofprotestvotesagainstthe
Republicancandidate—who,intheevent,becamethefirstRepublicanGovernor
ofNewJerseyinsixteenyears.)ToannounceaPresidentialspeechsofarahead
wasadaringdecision,becauseitcompoundeduncertaintyandencouraged
pressurestoswaywhateverdecisionhemightbeannouncing.
Intheinterval,NixonsoughttoelicitSovietsupport.OnOctober20,hemet
withDobrynin,whohadjustreturnedfromoneofhisfrequentconsultationsin
Moscow.Nixonpointedoutthatthebombinghaltwasayearold;ifnoprogress
occurredsoon,theUnitedStateswouldhavetopursueitsownmethodsfor
bringingthewartoanend.Ontheotherhand,iftheSovietUnioncooperatedin
bringingthewartoanhonorableconclusion,wewould“do somethingdramatic”
toimproveUS‐Sovietrelations.DobryninwasnotpreparedwithanyNorth
VietnameseoffersbuthedidputforthasortofSovietconcession.Aftermonths
ofsparringwehadindicatedtotheSovietsinJunethatwewerepreparedto
beginstrategicarmstalksimmediately.Characteristically,eventhoughtheSoviets
hadprofessedtheireagernessfortalksformonths,oncewewerecommittedthey
evadedareply.OnOctober20DobrynininformedusthattheSovietUnionwould
bepreparedtostartthetalksbymid‐November.
Itwasashrewdmove.Awareoftheeagernessofmuchofourgovernment
tobeginSALTnegotiations,theKremlincorrectlyjudgedthatNixoncouldnot
possiblyrefuse.Intheresultingclimateofhope,anyescalationinVietnamwould
appearashazardingprospectsforamajorrelaxationoftensions;thisinhibition
wouldthusbeaddedtothedomesticpressuresdramatizedbytheMoratorium
justafewdaysearlier.TheSoviets,inshort,applied reverselinkagetous.Their
calculationprovedtobecorrect.DespiteWhiteHouseeffortstoholdupareply
onSALTuntilaftertheNovember3speech,Rogersinsistedonannouncingour