Chapter
9
Stochastic
Modeling
Important economic decisions
are
often
made
based
on
models
of the
subsur-
face.
However,
due to the
sparse
and
unprecise data, these models cannot
be
considered
fully
reliable,
and the
impact
of
uncertainties should
be
inte-
grated
into
the
decision-making process.
As
shown
in
this chapter, stochastic
methods provide
a
useful
framework
for
assessing
the
uncertainties attached
to
these models.
9.1
Simulation versus interpolation
One
common problem
in the
geosciences
is
that
the set of
information avail-
able
is not
enough
to
assess
the
local complexity
of the
entities
1
to be
modeled.
In
areas
far
away
from
the
data
points,
any
interpolation method honoring
these
data
would produce
one
single smooth solution
that
does
not
reproduce
possible high-frequency variations
of the
actual phenomenon; this
is a
conse-
quence
of the
Shannon theorem [15], which
can be
approximately formulated
as
follows:
If
a
function
has
neighboring extrema, located
at a
relative
dis-
tance
d
from
each
other,
then
an
interpolation method
can
repro-
duce
these extrema only
if the
data spacing
is
less than
or
equal
to
d/2.
This implies
that,
in
regions away
from
the
data
points,
the
corresponding
"most probable" solution
can
have only
a
"smooth behavior," which
is
typ-
1
In
practice, these "entities" represent
the
geometry
and the
physical properties
of the
geological
object.
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