0035 While figures of absolute benefit may at first sight
appear disappointing, they carry a wealth of infor-
mation. Thus, in the above example, one can say that,
of every 100 patients advised to eat fatty fish, a CHD
event will be prevented in one or two each year, but
about six will still die from CHD each year. About 92
will derive no benefit because, judging from the
experience of the subjects in the control group, they
would have survived anyway. No worry! They will
have enjoyed the fatty fish and will probably have
saved money on meat!
0036 Intervention with drugs has much the same protect-
ive effect (for example, antihypertensives achieve a
relative reduction in CHD event of about 25%, that
is, closely similar to the 30% achieved by fish con-
sumption in DART). However the patients who are
given drugs, and who would have survived anyway,
will have been exposed to the undesirable side-effects
of the drugs, and their therapy will have generated
considerable costs. None of this is meant to imply
that dietary intervention is a substitute for medica-
tion. Raised CHD risk factors should be treated ap-
propriately, but considerations should also be given
to dietary intervention. These are not in competition.
Overviews or Metaanalyses
0038 In the nature of things, certainty is unobtainable and
even the largest and most carefully conducted RCT
can, by chance, give a wrong answer. Firm conclu-
sions should only be based on evidence drawn from a
number of trials. The play of chance can never be
ruled out, whatever the level of statistical signifi-
cance, and consistency in a number of studies is likely
to be a better guide to truth than the results of any
single study. Further to this, the results of any single
trial cannot be extrapolated to the general population
with certainty. Conclusions from a trial are limited
by issues such as the selection of patients tested, the
diagnostic criteria used, the way the intervention was
achieved, and the possibility that the intervention
may have affected other factors of relevance to the
disease. Together, these uncertainties can make it in-
appropriate and perhaps misleading to generalize the
results from any one study to patients in general and
make them the basis of clinical recommendations.
0045 Hence the importance of overviews of studies, or
metaanalyses of data from a number of different
studies. This approach is particularly appropriate
with RCTs, but it is important that data from every
relevant RCT are included.
0039 In fact, even the most meticulous search of the
literature followed by a formal overview of all the
evidence from relevant RCTs still leaves uncertainties.
There is publication bias, and reports which report an
effect are generally more likely to be accepted by a
journal than those which show no effect. But then this
limitation affects judgments based simply on cumula-
tive reading of the literature, however carefully done.
Nevertheless, the approach in research that is likely to
get closest to the truth is clearly drawing conclusions
from all the available acceptable evidence. Cochrane,
an epidemiologist, saw this and he commented in a
Rock Carling lecture, later published as Effectiveness
and Efficiency: ‘It is surely a great criticism of our
profession that we have not organised a critical sum-
mary, by speciality or sub-speciality, adapted period-
ically, of all relevant clinical trials.’
The Cochrane Collaboration
0040This urging by Cochrane led to the setting-up of
the Cochrane Centre in Oxford, and then to the
Cochrane Collaboration, a worldwide effort coordin-
ated in 11 Cochrane Centres. The collaboration aims
to identify every RCT ever done in medical care, to
group these by clinical objective, and make them
readily available as databases. These then constitute
the basis for statistical overviews, or metaanalyses,
which draw on all the acceptable trial evidence
relevant to each clinical procedure.
Final Considerations
0041RCTs of dietary factors are immensely difficult and
before one is mounted consideration should be given
to a number of general considerations relevant to
intervention in cardiovascular disease. In summary,
there are unlikely to be any easy answers!
0042First, compliance with a dietary intervention is
likely to be poor. Trials of the effect of dietary advice
on cholesterol levels have generally shown very little
effect, and to some extent – and probably a very large
extent – this is because of the difficulties most people
find in making a significant, let alone a large, reduc-
tion in dietary saturated fats. Likewise, attempts to
increase the intake of dietary fiber or fruit and vege-
table intake have achieved relatively little change.
Results such as these have far-reaching implications
for the acceptability of prophylactic strategies in
symptomless subjects, or in the general population.
0043Second, effectiveness is likely to be low. Geoffrey
Rose defined a paradox – population preventive strat-
egies, even those with large overall potential benefit,
are likely to confer little benefit on the individual –
and he went on to describe the overall benefit/risk
balance in strategies involving the general population
as ‘worrisome.’ An overview by Davey-Smith and
Ebrahim of nine major population-based RCTs
of the effect of advice on diet, smoking, and blood
1668 CORONARY HEART DISEASE/Intervention Studies