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STATISTICAL
ERRORS
OF
RADIATION
COUNTING
25
2.3
BASIC PROBABILITY THEOREMS
In the language of probability, an "event" is an outcome of one or more
experiments or trials and is defined by the experimenter. Some examples of
events are
1. Tossing a coin once
2.
Tossing a coin twice and getting heads both times
3. Tossing a coin 10 times and getting heads for the first five times and tails for
the other five
4.
Picking up one card from a deck of cards and that card being red
5.
Picking up 10 cards from a deck and all of them being hearts
6.
Watching the street for 10 min and observing two cyclists pass by
7.
Counting a radioactive sample for 10 s and recording 100 counts
8.
Inspecting all the fuel rods in a nuclear reactor and finding faults in two of
them.
Given enough information, one can calculate the probability that any one of
these events will occur. In some cases, an event may consist of simpler compo-
nents and one would like to know how to calculate the probability of the
complex event from the probabilities of its components.
Consider two events x and y and a series of
N
trials. The result of each trial
will be only one of the following four possibilities:
1.
x occurred but not y
2.
y occurred but not x
3. Both x and y occurred
4.
Neither x nor y occurred
Let n,, n,, n,, n, be the number of times in the
N
observations that the
respective possibilities occurred. Then,
n,
+
n,
+
n,
+
n,
=
N
(2.3)
The following probabilities are defined with respect to the events x and y:
P(x)
=
probability that x occurred
P(y)
=
probability that y occurred
P(x
+
y)
=
probability that either x or y occurred
P(xy)
=
probability that both x and y occurred
P(xiy)
=
conditional probability of x given y
=
probability of x occurring given that y has occurred
P(y
br)
=
conditional probability of y given x
=
probability of y occurring given that x has occurred