RAND Corporation. Social Science for Counterterrorism
Подождите немного. Документ загружается.
Disengagement and Deradicalization: Processes and Programs 315
compare the successes, failures, and lessons learned of past 6.
and present deradicalization programs worldwide; identify any
unique sociocultural, political, or economic factors that seem to
influence the success or failure of the programs
explore the potential role of the Muslim community in encour-7.
aging deradicalization of Islamist extremists and in reinforcing
the effects of both push and pull factors.
12
Bibliography
Abuza, Zachary, “e Disengagement and Rehabilitation of Jemaah Islamiyah
Detainees in Southeast Asia: A Preliminary Assessment,” in John Horgan and Tore
Bjørgo, eds., Leaving Terrorism Behind: Individual and Collective Disengagement,
New York: Routledge, forthcoming.
Al-Sharif, Sayyed Imam, Wathiqat Tarshid Al-‘Aml Al-Jihadi fi Misr w’Al-‘Alam
(Document for Guiding Jihad in Egypt and in the World), Kuwait City: Al-Jarida,
Cairo: Al-Masri Al-Yawm, 2007 (in Arabic), cited in Diaa Rashwan, “Egypt’s
Contrite Commander,” Foreign Policy, March/April 2008.
Ashour, Omar, “Lions Tamed? An Inquiry into the Causes of De-Radicalization of
the Egyptian Islamic Group,” Middle East Journal, Vol. 61, No. 4, Autumn 2007,
pp. 596–597.
———, “De-Radicalization of Jihad? e Impact of Egyptian Islamist
Revisionists on Al-Qaeda,” Perspectives on Terrorism II/5, Vol. 11, No. 14, March
2008a.
———, “Islamist De-Radicalization in Algeria: Successes and Failures,” e
Middle East Institute Policy Brief, No. 21, November 2008b.
———, e Deradicalization of Jihadists: Transforming Armed Islamist Movements,
New York and London: Routledge, forthcoming, April 2009.
Bakker, Edwin, Jihadi Terrorists in Europe, Clingendael, Netherlands: Netherlands
Institute of International Relations, December 2006. As of January 24, 2009:
http://www.clingendael.nl/publications/2006/20061200_cscp_csp_bakker.pdf
BBC News, “Yemeni Anti-Terror Scheme in Doubt,” BBC News Web site,
October 11, 2005. As of January 21, 2009:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/crossing_continents/4328894.stm
316 Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together
Benard, Cheryl, A Future for the Young: Options for Helping Middle Eastern Youth
Escape the Trap of Radicalization, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation,
WR-354, 2006. As of January 21, 2009:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR354/
Bennett, Drake, “How to Defuse a Human Bomb,” e Boston Globe, April 13,
2008. As of January 21, 2009:
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2008/04/13/
how_to_defuse_a_human_bomb/?page=1
Bjorgo, Tore, “Reducing Recruitment and Promoting Disengagement from
Extremist Groups: e Case of Racist Sub-Cultures,” in Cheryl Benard, ed., A
Future for the Young: Options for Helping Middle Eastern Youth Escape the Trap of
Radicalization, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, WR-354, 2006. As of
January 21, 2009:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR354/
Bjorgo, Tore, and John Horgan, eds., Leaving Terrorism Behind: Disengagement
from Political Violence, New York: Routledge, 2009.
Boucek, Christopher, “Extremist Reeducation and Rehabilitation in Saudi Arabia,”
Terrorism Monitor, Vol. 5, No. 16, August 16, 2007a.
———, “e Saudi Process of Repatriating and Reintegrating Guantanamo
Returnees,” CTC Sentinel, Vol. 1, No. 1, December 2007b, pp. 10–12.
———, “Jailing Jihadis: Saudi Arabia’s Special Terrorist Prisons,” Terrorism
Monitor, Vol. 6, No. 2, January 24, 2008, pp. 4–6.
Boucek, Christopher, Shazadi Beg, and John Horgan, “Opening the Jihadi
Debate: Yemen’s Committee for Dialogue,” in Tore Bjørgo and John Horgan,
eds., Leaving Terrorism Behind: Disengagement from Political Violence, New York:
Routledge, forthcoming.
Bowman, Tom, “U.S. Offers Training, Pay as It Frees Iraqi Detainees,” Morning
Edition, NPR News, May 16, 2008. As of January 21, 2009:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90506939
Brachman, Jarret, “Leading Egyptian Jihadist Sayyid Imam Renounces Violence,”
CTC Sentinel, Vol. 1, No. 1, December 2007, pp. 12–14.
Brandon, James, “e UK’s Experience in Counter-Radicalization,” CTC Sentinel,
Vol. 1, No. 5, April 2008, pp. 10–12.
Chai, Sun-Ki, “An Organizational Economics eory of Antigovernment
Violence,” Comparative Politics, Vol. 26, No. 1, October 1993.
Cragin, Kim, and Peter Chalk, Terrorism & Development: Using Social and
Economic Development to Inhibit a Resurgence of Terrorism, Santa Monica, Calif.:
RAND Corporation, 2003. As of July 16, 2008:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1630/
Disengagement and Deradicalization: Processes and Programs 317
Cragin, Kim, Peter Chalk, Audra Grant, Todd C. Helmus, Donald Temple, and
Matt Wheeler, “Curbing Militant Recruitment in Southeast Asia,” Santa Monica,
Calif.: RAND Corporation, unpublished, 2006.
Crenshaw, Martha, “e Causes of Terrorism,” Comparative Politics, Vol. 13, No.
4,1981, pp. 379–399.
Darwish, Nonie, Now ey Call Me Infidel: Why I Renounced Jihad for America,
Israel, and the War on Terror, New York: Penguin, 2006.
Decker, Scott H., and Barrik Van Winkle, Life in the Gang: Family, Friends, and
Violence, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1996.
Ebaugh, Helen Rose Fuchs, Becoming an Ex: e Process of Role Exit, Chicago, Ill.:
University of Chicago Press, 1988.
Fink, Naureen Chowdhury, and Ellie B. Hearne, Beyond Terrorism:
Deradicalization and Disengagement from Violent Extremism, New York:
International Peace Institute, October 2008.
Galanter, Marc, Cults: Faith, Healing and Coercion, New York: Oxford University
Press, 1989.
Garfinkel, Renee, “Personal Transformations: Moving from Violence to Peace,”
United States Institute of Peace Special Report, Vol. 186, April 2007.
Grunenberg, Sara, and Jaap van Donselaar, “Deradicalisation: Lessons from
Germany, options for the Netherlands?” in Jaap van Donselaar and Peter R.
Rodrigues, eds., Racism & Extremism Monitor: Seventh Report, Department of
Public Administration, Leiden University, 2006.
Gvineria, Gaga, “How Does Terrorism End?” in Paul K. Davis and Kim Cragin,
eds., Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, Santa Monica,
Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2009. As of January 21, 2009:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG849/
Hannah, Greg, Lindsay Clutterbuck, and Jennifer Rubin, Radicalization or
Rehabilitation: Understanding the Challenge of Extremist and Radical Prisoners,
Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, TR-571-RC, 2008. As of January 21,
2009:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR571/
Hassan, Muhammad Haniff, Unlicensed to Kill: Countering Imam Samudra’s
Justification for the Bali Bombing, Peace Matters, Singapore, 2006.
———, “Singapore’s Muslim Community-Based Initiatives Against JI,”
Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol. 1, No. 5, December 2007, pp. 3–8.
Hegghammer, omas, Saudi Militants in Iraq: Backgrounds and Recruitment
Patterns, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), February 5, 2006a.
As of January 21, 2009:
http://rapporter.ffi.no/rapporter/2006/03875.pdf
318 Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together
———, Terrorist Recruitment and Radicalization in Saudi Arabia, Middle East
Policy Council, Vol. 13, No. 4, 2006b, pp. 39–60.
Homeland Security Policy Institute, Out of the Shadows: Getting Ahead of
Prisoner Radicalization, special report, Critical Incident Analysis Group, George
Washington University, University of Virginia, 2007.
Horgan, John, e Psychology of Terrorism, London: Routledge, 2005.
———, “Psychological Factors Related to Disengaging from Terrorism: Some
Preliminary Assumptions and Assertions,” in Cheryl Benard, ed., A Future for the
Young: Options for Helping Middle Eastern Youth Escape the Trap of Radicalization,
Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, WR-354, 2006. As of January 21,
2009:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR354/
———, “Understanding Terrorist Motivation: A Socio-Psychological
Perspective,” in Magnus Ranstorp, ed., Mapping Terrorism Research: State of the
Art, Gaps, and Future Discussion, New York: Routledge, 2007a, pp. 106–126.
———, “From Profiles to Pathways: e Road to Recruitment,” Foreign Policy
Agenda, an EJournal of the US Department of State/Bureau of International
Information Programs, Vol. 12, No. 5, May 2007b.
———, “Deradicalization or Disengagement? A Process in Need of Clarity and a
Counterterrorism Initiative in Need of Evaluation,” Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol.
2, No. 4, February 2008, pp. 3–8.
———, Walking Away from Terrorism: Accounts of Disengagement from Radical
and Extremist Movements, London: Routledge, forthcoming.
Horowitz, Donald L., e Deadly Ethnic Riot, Berkeley, Calif.: University of
California Press, 2001.
International Crisis Group, “‘Deradicalisation’ and Indonesian Prisons,” Asia
Report, No. 142, November 19, 2007.
Jamieson, Allison, e Heart Attacked: Terrorism and Conflict in the Italian State,
London: Marian Boyays, 1989.
———, “Entry, Discipline and Exit in the Italian Red Brigades,” Terrorism and
Political Violence, Vol. 2, No. 1, Spring 1990a, pp. 1–20.
———, “Identity and Morality in the Italian Red Brigades,” Terrorism and
Political Violence, Vol. 2, No. 4, Winter 1990b, pp. 508–520.
Jones, Seth G., and Martin C. Libicki, How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for
Countering al Qa’ida, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2008. As of
January 21, 2009:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG741-1/
Disengagement and Deradicalization: Processes and Programs 319
Juergensmeyer, Mark, Terror in the Mind of God: e Global Rise of Religious
Violence, Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 2001.
Klein, Malcolm W., Street Gangs and Street Workers, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.:
Prentice-Hall, 1971.
Mason, David T., Martha Crenshaw, Cynthia McClintock, and Barbara Walter,
“How Political Violence Ends: Paths to Conflict Deescalation and Termination,”
presented at the 2007 Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
Chicago, Ill., August 22, 2007.
Moghaddam, Fathali, “e Staircase to Terrorism, A Psychological Exploration,”
American Psychologist, Vol. 60, No. 2, 2005, p. 161.
Newman, Edward, “Exploring the “Root Causes” of Terrorism,” Studies in Conflict
& Terrorism, Vol. 29, 2006, pp. 749–772.
O’Callaghan, Siobhan, e Informer, London: Granta, 1998.
O’Connell, Ed, and Cheryl Benard, “e Myth of Martyrdom: Young People and
the Insurgency in Iraq,” in Cheryl Benard, ed., A Future for the Young: Options
for Helping Middle Eastern Youth Escape the Trap of Radicalization, Santa Monica,
Calif.: RAND Corporation, WR-354, 2006. As of January 21, 2009:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR354/
Post, Jerrold M., “Group and Organisational Dynamics of Political Terrorism,”
in Paul Wilkinson and A. M. Stewart, eds., Contemporary Research on Terrorism,
Aberdeen: Aberdeen University Press, 1987.
Rabasa, Angel, Cheryl Benard, Lowell H. Schwartz, and Peter Sickle, Building
Moderate Muslim Networks, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2007. As
of January 21, 2009:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG574/
Sageman, Marc, Understanding Terror Networks, Philadelphia: University of
Pennsylvania Press, 2004.
———, Leaderless Jihad: Terror Networks in the Twenty-First Century,
Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2008.
Sharif, Sayyid Imam, Rationalizations on Jihad in Egypt and the World, serialized in
the Egyptian daily newspaper Al-Masry al-Youm, November–December 2007.
Short, J. F., and F. L. Strodtbeck, Group Processes and Gang Delinquency, Chicago,
Ill.: e University of Chicago Press, 1965.
Taarnby, Michael, “Yemen’s Committee for Dialogue: e Relativity of a Counter
Terrorism Success,” in Cheryl Benard, ed., A Future for the Young: Options for
Helping Middle Eastern Youth Escape the Trap of Radicalization, Santa Monica,
Calif.: RAND Corporation, WR-354, 2006. As of January 21, 2009:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR354/
320 Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together
Taylor, Max, e Terrorist, London, U.K.: Brassey’s, 1988.
Victoroff, Jeff, “e Mind of the Terrorist: A Review and Critique of Psychological
Approaches,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, No. 1, 2005.
Watkins, Eric, “Yemen’s Innovative Approach to the War on Terror,” Terrorism
Monitor, February 24, 2005.
Whewell, Tim, “Yemeni Anti-Terror Scheme in Doubt,” BBC, October 11, 2005.
As of January 24, 2009:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/crossing_continents/4328894.stm
Zannoni, Marco, “Deradicalization in the Netherlands,” presentation at
“Radicalization in Europe: A Post-9/11 Perspective,” conference hosted by the
Danish Institute for International Studies, Copenhagen, Denmark, August 2007.
Endnotes
1
Other programs have been undertaken in Algeria, Jordan, Tajikistan, and
Malaysia.
2
For additional discussions of organizational disengagement, see also Jones and
Libicki (2008). For additional discussion of how political violence, more broadly
interpreted, ends, see Mason et al. (2007).
3
Garfinkel’s account is more a collection of anecdotes than a methodologically
rigorous study; however, the insights she derives from the deeply personal experi-
ences of ideological deradicalization are all the more powerful for the similarities
across anecdotes.
4
Garfinkel cites some long-term trauma studies, which found that post-traumatic
stress syndrome was sometimes displaced by post-traumatic growth. Some of the
personality traits that determine which path is more likely include optimism and the
type of coping strategies the individual embraces.
5
Author’s discussion with RAND colleague Angel Rabasa, senior political scien-
tist, August 2008.
6
Whether the allegedly “correct interpretation” being taught in Saudi Arabia is
something that a Westerner or a moderate Muslim would regard as such is not cur-
rently known, at least to this author.
7
Additional details about the Saudi program are provided in Boucek (2007a,
2007b, and 2008).
8
Samudra was the mastermind behind the 2002 Bali bombings, among other JI
attacks.
Disengagement and Deradicalization: Processes and Programs 321
9
However, disengagement in Colombia is reported to have been more success-
ful when individuals made the decision to disengage (for example, members of the
Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) than when a collective disengage-
ment agreement was made by a militant group (for example, the United Self-Defense
Forces of Colombia) (Fink and Hearne, 2008).
10
See various interviews included in Bennett (2008).
11
Several of the following are adapted from Horgan (2007b, pp. 120, 123–124).
12
See for example, Rabasa, Benard, Schwartz, and Sickle (2007).
323
CHAPTER NINE
Social-Science Foundations for Strategic
Communications in the Global War on Terrorism
Michael Egner
Introduction
One of the major themes emerging from terrorism research is the need
to reduce public support for terrorist organizations. at, in turn, has
highlighted the potential significance of “strategic communications,” a
subject that has long been fraught with controversy. is paper reviews
the social science that can inform both discussion and execution of
strategic communications. Interestingly, many of the insights seem
strikingly obvious until it is recognized how often the principles they
suggest are violated in practice.
Background
Strategic communications, as a broad and multipronged policy endeavor,
has roots in many of the social sciences. A recent report (Defense Sci-
ence Board [DSB], 2008) defines strategic communications as integrat-
ing “the development, implementation, assessment, and evolution of
public actions and messages in support of America’s interests at home
and abroad,” using a mix of methods that
includes but goes beyond media affairs and short-term news
streams to focus on mid-range and long-term objectives that
require multi-disciplinary capabilities, engaging in a dialogue of
324 Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together
ideas, and durable partnerships with civil society organizations.
(pp. 1–2)
Strategic communications can be used to attack terrorism or
insurgency at a number of different critical points. A review of factors
identified in companion papers suggests many potential roles for stra-
tegic communications, including
easing short-term frustrations among vulnerable populations •
before they harden into long-term grievances
reducing the perceived rewards and increasing the perceived risks •
of joining a terrorist group or engaging in particular tactics
fostering resistance to terrorist and insurgent recruitment •
messages
reducing terrorist group cohesion and recruiting key allies•
reducing social pressures to aid terrorists, the perceived legitimacy •
of terrorism, and social acceptance of violence.
Different social-science disciplines offer unique contributions in
the pursuit of these objectives. A psychologist might focus on the devel-
opmental processes driving attitudes toward terrorism and the points
along this process at which targeted communications might have an
effect. An anthropologist, on the other hand, might study the cultur-
ally specific images and symbols that could subtly enhance or poison
counterterrorism (CT) or counterinsurgency (COIN) communication
efforts. Other potential areas of social-science work include the strate-
gies necessary to fight the deterioration of communities affected by
terrorism (sociology), patterns of success and failure in previous com-
munications campaigns (history), the interaction between communica-
tions and behavioral incentives (economics), and predicting the behav-
ior of key stakeholders in response to a hypothetical communications
campaign (political science and simulation).
Many writings have aggregated these contributions into broad,
philosophical recommendations for the future direction of strategic
communications. However, less common are micro-level discussions
of pragmatic (and, in particular, empirically based) prescriptions that