(ER) waves, mixed Rossby gravity (MRG) waves, and westward inertiogravity
(WIG) waves. Eastward inertiogravity (EIG) waves, along with tropical depression
(TD) type and the MJO are also depicted. The mode with the most power is the
MJO, which is unique in these spectra since it does not correspond to any particular
shallow-water mode. It has most of its power in the eastward-propagating symmetric
zonal wavenumbers 1 through 6 (Fig. 6b), with a substantial contribution to the
zonal mean as well. There is also some MJO power in the same region of the
antisymmetric spectrum in Figure 6a .
The periodic and apparently linear appearance of these waves would imply that
they are predictable for a lead time of about half their period. Such relationships can
be applied to predict tropical rainfall variability on the submonthly time scale using
knowledge of the base state provided by the MJO (Lo and Hendon, 2000). The MJO
itself can provide forecast information concerning the onset of ENSO or swings in
the TBO, while the interannual time scale base states affect MJO and submonthly
convection in the tropics in a continuum of upscale and downscale interactions
involving tropical dynamics (Meehl et al., 2001).
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