Кузык Б.Н., Кушлин В.И., Яковец Ю.В. Прогнозирование, стратегическое планирование и национальное программирование
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Ïðè ïîäãîòîâêå 7-é Ðàìî÷íîé ïðîãðàììû ÅÑ â àâãóñòå
2006 ã. åâðîïåéñêèå ïðîìûøëåííûå êðóãè âûñòóïèëè ñ
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íóòûõ ðåçóëüòàòîâ.
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80-õ ãîäîâ íà ýòè öåëè áûëî èçðàñõîäîâàíî îêîëî 500 ìëí
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6734 ìëí åâðî.
Ðèñ. 3. Ñòðóêòóðà Åâðîïåéñêîé òåõíîëîãè÷åñêîé ïëàòôîðìû (HFP)
ïîñëå 2005 ã.
B.N. KUZYK, V.I. KUSHLIN, YU.V. YAKOVETS
FORECASTING,
STRATEGIC PLANNING
AND
NATIONAL PROGRAMMING
2
nd
edition
Moscow, 2008
This book is recommended as a text-book for students,
post-graduates and attendants of the systems of higher,
post-graduate and additional professional education by
the Study and Methodology Council of the Russian Academy
of Public Administration under President of the Russian
Federation.
Reviewers: A.A.Petrov, Academician of the RAS, and Professor O.D.Procenko.
Forecasting, strategic planning and national programming:
Text-book / B.N.Kuzyk, V.I.Kushlin, Yu.V.Yakovets. — Second
edition, elaborated and supplemented. — Publishing house
«Economica», Moscow, 2008, pð. 575.
Presently, when the issues of working out and realization of the long-term strategic
decisions are in the forefront and when there is an acute deficit of professionally skilled
specialists in the fields of forecasting, strategic and indicative planning and national
programming, three well-known Russian scientists – Professor B.N.Kuzyk, Director of
the Institute of Economic Strategies, Corresponding Member of the RAS, Professor
V.I.Kushlin, Head of the Department of theory and practice of state regulation of the
market economy of the Russian Academy of Public Administration under President of
the RF, and Professor Yu.V.Yakovets, of the same Department, Chairman of the
Branch of researching cycles and forecasting of the RANS, have prepared a
fundamental text-book on forecasting, strategic planning and national programming.
The point is that this is a text-book of the new generation in which every reader
will find a composition of foreseeing theory and integral macro-forecasting mechanism,
strategic planning, national programming and macro-modeling, generating practical
experience in these kinds of state regulation of the market economy.
The second edition of the text-book is essentially widen, taking into account
experience of realizing strategic national projects and new problems.
It is designed for students of economic and post-graduates of training, secondary
training of civil service officers and top-managers.
CONTENTS
Preface ...................................................9
Chapter 1. Mechanism of state regulation of the market economy...15
1.1. Basic terms ..................................... 16
1.2. Change of place and role of forecasting, planning and
programming in the economy’s regulation ..............22
1.3. Long-term forecasting as an initial point and a base for
strategic planning and regulation of the economy ........26
1.4. Strategic and innovative function of the state and
mechanism of its realization .........................33
Chapter 2. Theory of foreseeing and methodology of social and
economic forecasting ..............................40
2.1. Necessity and functions of forecasting .................40
2.2. The N.D.Kondratieff’s theory of foreseeing and methodo-
logy of integral forecasting ..........................42
2.3. Forecasting of cycles and crises...................... 48
2.4. Forecasting indices balances and scenario...............61
2.5. Global aspect of the long-term forecasting ..............65
Chapter 3. Scientific basis of the strategic planning ..............72
3.1. Principles and forms of the strategic planning ...........74
3.2. Interconnection of the strategic planning with other
components of the state regulation of social and economic
process..........................................79
Chapter 4. National programming .............................89
4.1. Scientific basis of national programming ...............89
4.2. Historical experience and prospects of national program-
ming ...........................................93
4.3. Methodology and technology of national programming ....98
Chapter 5. Indicative planning...............................111
571
5.1. Content, basic forms and role of the indicative planning
at the modern economy ............................111
5.2. Formation of the system of indicative planning in Russia. . . 118
Chapter 6. Balance’s methods and macro-modeling in forecasting
and strategic planning ............................127
6.1. Working out and development of balance’s method ......127
6.2. Balance’s systems: typology and interconnection ........133
6.3. Scheme of balance inter-branch’s model and its features ....138
6.4. Use of balance inter-branch’s model in the economic
analyses, forecasting and planning....................142
6.5. The macro-model of W.Leontief for long-term foreca-
sting of the world economy’s development .............148
6.6. Reproductive and cycling and geo-civilization’s balance’s
models .........................................153
6.7. Strategic and geo-civilization’s matrix at the long-term
macro-forecasting ................................156
Chapter 7. Organization of forecasting-planning routine at the
federal, regional and corporative levels ..............159
7.1. Legislative provision of forecasting-planning activity .....159
7.2. Political tools and administrative mechanism ...........164
7.3. Forecasts and plans at the level of corporations and
enterprises...................................... 174
Chapter 8. Forecasting, strategic planning and programming of
the social and demographic development .............180
8.1. Demography’s forecasting ..........................180
8.2. Forecasting of labor and employment .................187
8.3. Forecasting of the living level’s dynamics..............194
8.4. Forecasting, strategic planning and programming of the
social complex development ........................197
Chapter 9. Forecasting, strategic planning and planning of the
scientific and technical and innovative development .....203
9.1. Regularities of the scientific and technical progress
and their effective use .............................203
9.2. Forecasting of the scientific and innovative development
and use of their achievements .......................216
9.3. Forecasting, strategic planning and programming of
innovative activity................................227
9.4. Forecasting and strategic planning of development of the
innovative and investment’s sector ...................232
572
Chapter 10. Forecasting and strategic planning of the economic
growth and structural dynamics....................237
10.1. Economic growth and structural changes – basic tasks
of the macro-economic regulation...................237
10.2. Methodology of forecasting of the macroeconomic
development ...................................245
10.3. Strategic planning of the economic growth............254
10.4. Long-term forecasting of the economic structure’s
dynamics ......................................258
Chapter 11. Strategic planning of the defense-industrial complex...271
11.1. Methodological basis of the strategic planning of the
defense-industrial complex ........................287
11.2. Disorganization of the strategic planning of the defense-
industrial complex as a result of market reforms .......281
11.3. Revealing a system of strategic planning and manage-
ment of the defense-industrial complex ..............289
Chapter 12. Ecological forecasting, strategic planning and program-
ming of development of the energy and raw materials
sector of the economy ...........................299
12.1. Forecasting and strategic planning of ecological
dynamics ......................................300
12.2. Forecasting and strategic planning of the Russian eco-
nomy provision by natural resources ................307
12.3. Forecasting, strategic planning and programming of the
energy and raw materials sector development...........309
12.4. Energy strategy of Russia .........................317
Chapter 13. Forecasting, strategic planning and programming of
the agricultural and food complex and consumer’s
sector of the economy ...........................323
13.1. Concept, composition and dynamics of the agricultu-
ral and food complex ............................323
13.2. Methodological basis of forecasting and strategic
planning of the agricultural and food complex .........325
13.3. Trends of the Russian agricultural and food complex
development ...................................328
13.4. Strategy of renewal and increase of competitiveness
of the Russian agricultural and food complex..........334
13.5. State programs of agricultural development and regula-
tion of markets of the agricultural production, resour-
ces and food ...................................337
13.6. Forecasting and strategic planning of development of
consumer’s sector of the Russian economy ............341
573