Kissinger Henry. White House Years

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AnNSCmeetingonFebruary27dealtwithourpublicpositiononLaos.The

decision,totheenormousreliefoftheCabinetmembers,wasthatastatement

wouldbepreparedbytheNSCstaffandissuedbytheWhiteHouse.WhyIagreed

toaprocedurethatwouldputtheWhiteHouseinthedirectlineoffireonevery

factualdispute—whetheritwasbureaucraticinexperienceorsimplyexhaustion

withendlessattemptstopassthebuck—isimpossibleto determineatthislate

date.Whateverthereason,theNSCstaffquicklybegantodraftapublic

statementexplainingourinvolvementinLaos.Toavoiditsappearingexcessively

defensive,Icastitintheformofanewproposaltothetwoco‐chairmenofthe

GenevaConference,BritainandtheSovietUnion,toconveneaconferenceof

signatoriesofthe1962Accordstodevelopnewguaranteesfortheneutralityof

Laos.Ihadnoillusionthatthiswouldhappen.NeitherLondonnorMoscowwas

eagertoexposeitselfonthisissue.



Thestatement,publishedonMarch6,wasafullandcandidaccountof

AmericaninvolvementandthereasonsforsecrecysincetheKennedy

Administration.Butitgeneratedamajorcontroversybecauseofoneinaccuracy,

producedinpartbytheagencies’beinglessthanmeticulousaboutsupplyingmy

staffwithallthedetails(sincetheywouldnotbetakingtheheat),inpartbyan

honestbureaucraticbungle.Nixonhadfeltthatthebestwaytoprovethatno

AmericanswereinvolvedingroundcombatinLaoswastoemphasizethatnone

hadbeenkilledinsuchactivities.“NoonecaresaboutB‐52strikesinLaos.But

peopleworryaboutourboysthere,”NixonhadtoldmeaftertheNSCmeeting.

WinstonLord,mynewspecialassistant—whowastobecomeoneofmyclosest

friends—wasinchargeofdraftingthestatement.Heandothersscrupulously

checkedwiththedepartments.Theyweregiventheimpressionthattheonly

hesitationoveranassertionthatnoUSpersonnelhaddiedinLaosrelatedto

somecasualtiesamongAmericanreconnaissanceteamsthathadsporadically

enteredSouthernLaosfromVietnamtoobserveandifpossibleharassinfiltration

ontheHoChiMinhTrail(code‐named“OperationPrairieFire”).Sincethese

activitieswereclearlyrelatedtothewarinVietnamandhadnothingtodowith

thebattlesinNorthernLaos,wethoughtwecouldsustainasentencetotheeffect

that“noAmericanstationedinLaoshaseverbeenkilledingroundcombat

operations.”



Makingaflatstatementoffactonmattersextendingovernearlyadecade

isacertainsignofinexperience.Onecanneverbesurewhatfactsarestacked

awayintherecessesofthebureaucracythatwillsuddenlyappear.I soonwasto

begivenalessonintheperilsofbeingtoocategorical.



AfterthestatementwasissuedonMarch6,thebureaucracysuddenly

beganleakingtothepresswhatithadnotbeenabletobringitselftoinform the

President—thatsomeveryfewAmericansstationedinLaos,civiliansandmilitary

personnelnotincombat,hadinfactbeenkilledbyrandomfireovertheprevious

nineyears.TheWhiteHousewasforcedtoacknowledgeonMarch8thatitnow

hadinformationfromtheDefenseDepartmentthatsixciviliansandonearmy

captainwho“wasnotengagedincombatoperations”hadbeenkilledinLaos

sincethebeginningof1969.AnaverageofaboutfourAmericancivilianshadbeen

killedinLaosineachoftheprecedingfiveyears.OnMarch10,theDepartmentof

DefensehelpfullyannouncedthatAmericanmilitarymenservinginLaoshad

beenentitledto“hostilefirepay”sinceJanuary1,1966.Subsequent inquiryinto

whowasresponsiblefortheerrorsproducedtheunstartlingconclusionthatit

wastheresultofaseriesofmisunderstandingsandafailureofcommunication.

Lorddidapostmortem,retracingthedraftingprocessandthediscussions

betweenDefenseandtheNSCstaff;itdoesnotreflecttheagonythisbrilliantand

honorablemanunderwentinwhatwerehisfirstfewweeksinthethanklessjobof

beingmyspecialassistant.



Nixonwasfuriousatwhatheconsideredafailureofmyvauntedstaff;fora

weekIcouldnotgetanappointmenttoseehim.Itookfullresponsibility.On

March9IwrotetoLaird,withacopytothePresident:



DearMel:



Inordertoavoidanymisunderstanding,Iwantyoutoknowthatyourrecollectionis

correct.YourstafflinedoutthephraseaboutnoAmericancombatdeathstwice.Iwasunder

themisapprehensionthatthiswasaresultofPRAIRIEFIREandthereforeadjustedthe

statementtotakeaccountofthat.However,itisthedutyofmyofficetopreventmistakeslike

this,andIwantedyoutoknowthatyoubearnoresponsibility.



Warmregards,

HenryA.Kissinger



Naturally,thepressandCongresswereindignantatwhatwascalled—on

thebasisoffour‐to‐fivenonco mbat deathsayear—aconfirmedAmericanmilitary

involvementinLaos.Publicdebatefocusedonthenew“credibilitygap”rather

thanontheunderlyingreality—thatAmericaninvolvementinLaoswas

demonstrablyminimalandthatNorthVietnamwasengagedinanoffensive.



ThesituationinLaossoontookanothergraveturn.TheCommunist

advancereachedtheLongThiengarea,thelaststrongholdbefore thecapitalof

Vientiane.Italso threatenedtheheadquartersofVangPao,theleaderoftheMeo

tribesmenwhowereresistingCommunistdomination.WithaCommunist

advancetotheMekongimminent,ThailandofferedtosendvolunteerstoLong

ThiengiftheLaotiangovernmentaskedforthem.Thisproposalwasstrenuously

resistedbytheStateDepartmentandreceivedonlylukewarmsupportfromother

agenciesattwoWSAGmeetings.Afterwereceivedaformalrequestfromboth

theLaotianandThaigovernme nts,thePresidentoverruledtheagencies.Hewas

convincedandIagreedthattorefusetheofferwouldraisedoubtsinThailand

aboutourcommitmenttoitsdefenseandmightpanicSouvanna.OnMarch26I

toldtheWSAGofthePresident’sdecision.



TheLaotiangovernmentlaunchedacounteroffensiveonMarch27,aided

bytheThaivolunteers.Theirinterventionwasdecisive.OnMarch31Laos

governmentforcesrecapturednearbySamThong;itsairfieldwassoonbackin

useandourplanesbeganferryingsupplies.NorthVietnameseforcespulledback

fromtheLongThiengareathenextday.



TheLaoscrisisthussubsidedfortherestoftheyear;thepoliticaland

militaryequilibriuminNorthernLaoswasmaintaine d. Butthesplitwithinour

governmenthadbeendramatized;andsocorrosivelyuntrustingwasour

oppositionthatwewereaccusedofprovokingwhatwesoughttoresistandwere

suspectedoforganizingthesequel—acoupinneighboringCambodia.Thefacts

wereverydifferent.



<<Contents>>

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

TheOverthrowofSihanouk



F

ornearlythirtyyearsthepoliticallifeofCambodiahadbeensynonymouswith

thetempestuouscareerandpersonalityofPrinceNorodomSihanouk.

CrownedKingin1941attheageofeighteen,heabdicatedthethronein1955to

playanactivepoliticalroleasPrimeMinister;inJune1960,byunanimousvoteof

theCambodianNationalAsse mbly,hewaselevatedtochiefofstate.Itwas

Sihanoukwho hadguidedthekingdomofCambodiatoindependencefrom

Francein1953,shapeditspoliticalinstitutions,anddominateditspolicies. 



InleadinghiscountrySihanoukskillfullywalkedatightropebetweenEast

andWestinglobalpolitics,betweentheSovietUnionandChinaintheemerging

Communistschism,betweentheopposingsidesinthebattleoverVietnam,and

betweenrightandleftinhisowncountry.Voluble,erratic,fun‐loving‐”mercurial”

isthewordusuallyused—hedexterouslykepthiscountryahavenofpeaceamid

thebloodywarsthatravagedtherestofIndochina.F inally—suddenly—in1970,

thenimbletightropewalkerslippedandfell,andthusdoomedhispeopletoahell

farworsethaneventheirneighborshadendured.



OnJanuary7,1970,PrinceSihanouk,withhiswifeMoniqueandaretinue

ofeleven,lefttheircapital,PhnomPenh,foratwo‐monthvacationataclinicin

GrasseontheFrenchRiviera.Itwashiscustomto“takethecure”thereeverytwo

yearstoeasethediscomfortofwhathecalledhis“obesity,blooddisease,and

albuminuria.”Inhisabsencehisgovernmentwasleftinthehandsofhisown

chosenleaders:ChairmanoftheNatio nalAssemblyChengHeng(whobecame

actingheadofstate);PrimeMinisterLonNol(whomSihanoukhadappointedin

August1969andpraisedinSeptemberas“theonlypersonIcouldtrustbecause

ofhisfaithfulnesstotheThroneandNation”);[

LonNolwasalsoSihanouk’s

representativetoChina’sNationalDaycelebrationsinPekingonOctober1,1969,standingon

TienAnMenwithMaoTse‐tung.

]andSirikMatak,FirstDeputyPrimeMinister.



RelationsbetweenSihanoukandhisowngovernmentwerenotalways

smooth.LeftistelementshadbeendiscreditedandexpelledbySihanoukinprior

years(theleadersoftheCommunistKhmerRougehad,infact,beencondemned

todeathinabsentia).ThereweresomedifferenceswiththeLonNol‐SirikMatak

CabinetoverSihanouk’seconomicpolicies,hisinabilitytoridthecountryofNorth

VietnameseandVietCongforcesoccupyingCambodia’sEasternregions,the

corruptionofhisentourage,andhisunpopulardecisiontoopenastatecasinoin

PhnomPenh.ButnoneofthesesquabblesseemedcriticalenoughinJanuary

1970toimpedehisdeparturefortheSouthofFrance.



TheUnitedStateshadevenlesspremonitionoftrouble.Wehadrestored

diplomaticrelationsinJuly1969,asdescribedearlier,andhadasmallmissio n

headedbychargéd’affairesLloydRives.TherehadbeennoUSmilitaryor

economicassistanceprograminCambodiasinceSihanoukcanceleditin1963.

And,largelyatSenatorMansfield’sinsistence,noCIApersonnelwereassignedto

PhnomPenhaftertherestorationofdiplomaticrelations.InJanuary,February,

andintothefirsthalfofMarch1970,thehighestlevelsoftheUnitedStates

governmentwerepreoccupiedwiththeburgeoning crisisinLaosandtherelated

acrimonyathome.OnMarch17IlunchedwithMarshallGreenandWilliam

SullivanoftheStateDepartment’sEastAsianBureau;ourdiscussionsfocusedon

China,Vietnam,andLaos;therecordsuggeststhatCambodiawasnoteven

touchedupon.



FromtheAmericanpointofviewtheprecariouspoliticalbalanceinneutral

CambodiaunderSihanouk’sskillful,ifunpredictable,tutelagewasthebest

attainablesituation.Tobesure,Hanoi’suseofCambodianterritoryforlaunching

militaryoperationsagainstourforces,inflagrantdisregardofinternationallaw,

wasacontinuingdanger.Butheretoo acertainequilibriumhadbeenestablished.

Sihanoukhadacquiescedin,ifnotencouraged,ourairoperationsagainstthese

sanctuaries;wedesistedfromgroundoperationsacrosstheborder;Hanoi

continuedtousethesanctuaries,ifatahighercost.Andwehadsomeideaof

howprecarioustheinternalbalanceinCambodiawas.WhenPresidentNixonmet

withPresidentThieuinSaigononJuly30,1969,Thieucautionedprophetically

thatifthebalanceinCambodiawereupsetbytheoverthrowofSihanouk,the

Communistswouldwinintheend:



ThePresident[Nixon]askedforhisviewsofSihanouk.PresidentThieurepliedthatwhile

Sihanoukisbad,wedon’twanttohavesomethingworse.Headdedthatthereareonlytwo

groupsinCambodiawhocanoverthrowSihanouk,themilitaryortheCommunists;themilitary

areweakandineffectualanditismorelikelytobetheCommunistswhowouldsucceed.Evenif

themilitarymovedagainstSihanouk,hefeltthattheCommunistswouldeventuallytakeover.

WhatSihanoukdoesorcandodependsverylargelyonwhathappensinVietnam.Cambodiais

aweakcountryandifSihanoukwereoverthrown,orifweencouragedhisoverthrow,itis

highlylikelytheCommunistswilltakeover.



Weagreedwiththisassessment.Cambodia’stragedywasthatitsinternal

stressesfinallyupsetthedelicateequilibriumthatSihanoukhadstruggledto

maintain,unleashingprecisely theforceswhichThieuhadforeseen.The

precipitatingissuewastheCommunistsanctuariesfromwhichtheNorth

Vietnamesehadtormentedourforces.Theseincreasinglyarousedthenationalist

outrageofCambodians,whooverthecenturieshaveseensuccessiveVietnamese

rulerscolonizetheirancestrallands;indeed,theareaaroundSaigonwastakenby

VietnamesefromCambodiansonlyintheearlynineteenthcentury.HadFrench

occupationnotsupervened,itisquitepossiblethatallofCambodiawouldhave

sufferedthatfate.TheantipathyofCambodiansforallVietnamesehasancient

roots.Sihanouk’sinabilitytodislodgethefearedNorthVietnamesefrom

Cambodiansoilunderminedhisposit ionwitheverypassingmonth.



Sihanouk’spublicstatementsoftheperiodleavenodoubtastowhomhe

consideredthethreattohiscountry’sindependence.Repeatedlyandpubliclyhe

protestedNorthVietnamese“aggression”andinfringementofCambodia’s

sovereignty.InJune1969—threemonthsafterthesecretbombingstarted—he

hadcomplainedatapressconferencethatCambodia’sRatanakiriprovincewas

“practicallyNorthVietnameseterritory,”andthat“VietMinh”(North

Vietnamese)andVietCongforceshadheavilyinfiltratedintoSvayRiengprovince.

IntheOctober1969issueofSangkum,ajournalofwhichSihanoukwaseditor,an

articleentitled“TheImplantationofVietCongandNorthVietnamesealongOur

Borders”protestedtheNorthVietnameseoccupationatlength;amapshowed

thelocationof35,000to40,000NorthVietnameseandVietCongtroops

occupyingCambodianterritory(notunhelpfultoourintelligence).Inasigned

articleintheDecember1969issue,Sihanoukwent sofarastopaytributetothe

AmericanroleinVietnam.Hearguedthat“inallhonestyandobjectivity,”the

presenceofAmericanforcesinSouthEastAsiaestablishedaregiona lbalanceof

powerthatpermittedsmallnationslikeCambodia“toberespected,ifnot

courted,bytheEuropeanandevenAsianSocialistcamps.”America’sAsianallies

couldnotcompensateforawithdrawalofAmericanpowerbyturningtowardthe

Communistsbecause,wroteSihanouk,likeabirdbeforeaserpent,“thebird,

gentleornot,alwaysendsupbybeingswallowedup.”Sihanoukconcludedhis

articlewitharingingendorsementoftheNixonDoctrine:



ItispossibleandevenprobablethatthenewNixonDoctrinewhichforeseesnothaving

Americantroopsintervene…mayenterintoeffect…But,they[theAmericans]willbeobligedin

theirowninteresttosupportthepopularnationalistsintheirresistanceagainstthenew

imperialism,thatofAsiaticCommunism…IftheUSbringsaidwithoutconditionsandwithout

physicalintervention…theywillcertainlyhavemorehopeofseeingthefloodofCommunism

containedthaniftheyassumethistaskwiththeirownsoldiers.Ineffect,theywouldthus

contributetocuttingthewingsfromthesubversivepropagandaofCommunism,whichcallsthe

nationtorebellion,andtothe“liberationofthenation”whentheregionis“occupied”by

foreignforces....



IsentexcerptsfromthisarticletoNixononFebruary12,1970.Onhis

instructions,I alsosentthefulltexttoSenatorMansfieldonFebruary23.



Sihanoukhadnodoubtofwhichsidehadcommittedthefundamental

aggressioninIndochina.Forexample,inNovember1969theVietConghadfired

onaUSSpecialForcescampinVietnamfromCambodia nterritory;retaliatory—

andpublicized—Americanairattacksweresaidtohavekilledsometwenty‐five

Cambodians.SihanoukhadprotestedthistotheUnitedStates;ourpolicywasto

paycompensation.Nevertheless,inaspeechonDecember15,Sihanoukplaced

theresponsibilityforthisincidentontheNorthVietnamese:



WhotriggeredtheDakDamincident?ItwastheVietCongwhofiredattheAmericans

fromourterritory.WhentheAmericansgothit,theybecameangryandbombedus.Thenthe

VietCongandtheVietMinhfled,andonlyKhmerinhabitantswerelefttobecomevictims.That

isthewholestory....



ThebigRedpowerswhoclaimtobeourfriends,theEuropeanRedsattheUnited

Nations,haveforbiddenustocomplaintotheUnitedNations…



Sihanouktoldhisaudiencethathewouldnotbreakdiplomaticrelations

withtheUnitedStatesagain,assomewereurging,becauseifhedidso,“we’ll

havetodothesamethingwiththeVietMinhandVietCong,becausetheystill

continuetocommitaggressionagainstourterritoryevenafterweestablished

diplomaticrelationswiththem.”



OnFebruary22,1970,towardtheendofhisvacationinFrance,Sihanouk

announcedthatonhiswayhomeinMarchheintendedtovisittheSovietUnion

andChina,“thosegreat,friendlycountries,”toenlisttheirsupporttoreduceor

eliminatetheNorthVietnamesepresenceinhiscountry.



ButforthefirsttimeinhiscareerSihanouklosthisgriponevents.On

March8,villagersinCambodia’sSvayRiengprovincedemonstratedagainstNorth

Vietnameseoccupation.OnMarch11,twentythousandyoungCambodians

sackedtheembassiesoftheNorthVietnameseandtheVietConginPhnomPenh.

(TheCambodiangovernmentclearlyhadahandinorganizingthe

demonstrations.)ThetwohousesoftheCambodianParliamentheldaspecial

jointsessionandrequestedthegovernmenttoreaffirmCambodia’sneutrality

andtodefendthenationalterritory.TheParliamenturgedanexpansionofthe

Cambodianarmy,whichSihanoukhadkeptdeliberatelyweakbecausehefeared

thatitmightmoveagainsthim.



FromParis,Sihanouksentapubliccablegramtohismother,theDowager

Queen,inPhnomPenhdenouncing“certainpersonalities”inhisgovernmentwho

weretryingto“throwourcountryintothearmsofanimperialistcapitalist

power.”HeannouncedhisintentiontoreturntoPhnomPenhimmediately“to

addressthenationandthearmyandaskthemtomaketheirchoice.”Inan

interviewwhilestillinParis,SihanoukwarnedtheNorthVietnameseandViet

CongthattheyhadachoicebetweenrespectingCambodia’sneutralityandseeing

apro‐Americanfactiontakeoverhisgovernment.

Forreasonsneverfully

explained,hehesitatedinParis,however,andthekettleinPhnomPenhbeganto

boilover.OnMarch12DeputyPrimeMinisterSirikMatakannouncedsuspension

ofatradeagreementwiththeVietCongandtheexpansionof theCambodian

armybytenthousandmen.Newanti‐VietnameseriotstookplaceinPhnomPenh

withattacksonshopsandchurchesoftheVietnamesecommunity.OnMarch13,

theCambodianForeignMinistryannouncedthatithadnotifi edtheNorth

VietnameseandVietCongembassiesthatallVietnameseCommunistarmed

forcesweretoleaveCambodianterritorybydawnonMarch15,1970—twodays

later.



Thesameday,March13,Sihanoukma dehissinglemostfatefuldecision.

HeleftParis,nottoreturntoPhnomPenhashehadannouncedtwodaysbefore,

buttocarryouthisscheduledvisittoMoscow.Attemptingtoregaintheinitiative

ontheissueofprimaryconcerntohispublic,heannouncedinParis:“Iamgoing

toMoscowandPekingtoaskthemtocurbtheactivitiesoftheVietCongandViet

Minhinmycountry.”HereprintedaletterhehadwritteninAgenceKhmerPresse

thathewouldfight“againsttheCommunistVietnamesewho,takingadvantageof

themilitarysituation,infiltrateandsettleourterritory.”Despitehisearlier

intentiontoreturnquicklytoPhnomPenh,despiteSovietPresidentPodgorny’s

advicetoflyhomethenextday,SihanoukspentfivecrucialdaysinMoscow 

hagglingovermilitaryaid—inalast‐ditchefforttoplacatehismilitary,whowere

chafingatbeingcutofffromallnewequipment.Eventhen,heheade dnotfor

PhnomPenhbutforPeking.InhisownaccountSihanoukassertsrather

defensivelythathe“neededmoretimetowatchdevelopmentsinPhnomPenh”;



atseveralpointsheclaimsthatLonNolandSirikMatakwouldhaveblockedany

attempttoreturn.ButitwasnotuntilMarch18thathisownlegislaturedropped

himandonlythenweretheairportsclosed.Sihanouklearnedthathehadbeen

deposedfromPrimeMinisterKosyginontheridetoMoscow’sVnukovoairport.

Hewasstunned.Fornoneofhisaideshadhadthecouragetotellhimthatearlier

thatdaytheninety‐two‐strongCambodianNationalAssemblyandCouncilofthe

Kingdom,inanotherspecialjointsession,hadvotedunanimouslytoremovehim

aschiefofstate.



SihanoukarrivedinPekingtobehuggedbyPremierChouEn‐laiandfeted

bytheChineseasifnothinghadchanged;ChouassuredhimthatChinastill

regardedhimaschiefofstate.InPhnomPenh,meanwhile,theCambodian

ParliamentnamedChengHeng,whomSihanoukhadleftbehindinhisplace,as

interim—insteadofacting—chiefofstate.Itwasnotamilitary“coup”inthe

classicsense;itwasSihanouk’sowngovernmentwithoutSihanouk.



OneaccountofSihanouk’sbehaviorcametomemonthslaterfromJean

Sainteny.ImetwithSaintenyinhisParisapartmentonSeptember27,1970,

beforeameetingwiththeNorthVietnamese.Herevealedthathehadlunched

withSihanoukinParisontheverydaythattheNorthVietnameseandVietCong

embassiesinPhnomPenhhadbeenattacked(March11).AtthatpointSihanouk

plannedtogobackimmediately— inwhichcaseSaintenywasconvincedhewould

nothavebeendeposed.SaintenywasconvincedthatSihanoukchangedhismind

partlybecauseofPrincessMonique’sdesiretovisittheirchildren,whowere

studentsinPragueandPeking.Anotherreason,Ibelieve,wasthatSihanoukwas

overconfident;hecouldnotbelievehisrulewasindangerfromthemenwho,

afterall,owedtheirofficetohim.HealsohopedthatMoscowwouldhelphim

placatehismilitary,bybothmilitaryaidandpressureonHanoitoleave

Cambodia.Finally(asSihanouklatertoldme),hehadreceivedacablefromhis

motherinPhnomPenhwarninghimthatitwasdangeroustoreturn.



AnyattempttoassesstheblameforpropellingCambodiaintothe

maelstromofbloodyconflictmustbeginhere.ForLonNolandSirikMatak,the

crucialstepwastheiractofbravadototakeupthepopularbattleagainstthe

hated—andfarsuperior—forcesoftheNorthVietnameseandVietCong.For

Sihanouk,thecrucialstepwashisweekofhesitation,becausewhatLonNoland

SirikMatakfeared,andPodgornyadvised,theUnitedStatesalsobelievedand

preferred:thatSihanouk’sboldreentryintoPhnomPenhtofacedownhis

opponentswouldhaveturnedthetideofeventsandwasineverybody’sbest

interest.Oncereturnedtopower,Sihanouk couldhaveresumedhisbalancing

rolefromhistraditionalposition,whichIdescribedtoNixononApril21asoneof

“placinghimselfdeliberatelyontheextremeleftwingoftherightwing.”We

wouldalmostcertainlyhavecooperatedwiththiseffort.ByMarch20eventswere

racingoutofcontrol.



TheroleoftheUnitedStatesthroughtheseeventswashardlyas

purposefulassomeimagine,oraseffectualasotherspretend.Preoccupiedwith

Laosforthefirstthreemonthsoftheyear,andwithnointelligencepersonnelin

PhnomPenh,wefoundourperceptionslaggingfarbehindevents.Weneither

encouragedSihanouk’soverthrownorknewaboutitinadvance.Wedidnoteven

graspitssignificanceformanyweeks.Myownignoranceofwhatwasgoingonis

reflectedintwomemorandatoNixon.Thoughhereceiveddailysummariesofkey

events,Ididnotsendforwardalongeranalysisofthefirst(March11)

demonstrationsagainstSihanoukuntilMarch17,aweek’sdelaythatindicates

thatCambodiawasscarcelyahighpriorityconcern.Evenmorestrikingismy

suggestioninthatanalysisthatitallcouldhavebeenanelaboratetrickby

Sihanouk:



GiventhesharpcompetitionbetweenSirikMatakandSihanouk,itispossiblethatSirik

wantedtopresentSihanoukwithafaitaccompli,ortochallengehimtoatestongrounds

whereSirikMatak’spositionwouldbepopular.Ontheotherhand,nobodyhaschallenged

Sihanouksodirectlyinyears,anditisquitepossiblethatthisisanelaboratemaneuver,to

permitSihanouktocallforSovietandChinesecooperationinurgingtheVC/NVA[Viet

Cong/NorthVietnameseArmy.]toleave,onthegroundsthathewillfallandbereplacedbya

“rightist”leaderiftheVC/NVAstayinCambodia.



TherecentbehaviorofSihanoukandtheRKG[RoyalKhmerGovernment]wouldfit

eitherthesis—i.e.,thatthisisacollusivegambit;orthatSihanoukinfactfacesachallengefrom

SirikMatakandLonNol.



ThemotivationsoftheprincipalactorsinPhnomPenhwerequiteobscure

tome,notleastbecauseLonNolhadbeenamongthoseprofitingfromthe

smugglingtradewiththeveryCommunistforcesthathisgovernmentnow

challenged.OnMarch19inanothermemorandumtothePresident,Istillthought

SihanoukmightattempttoreturntoPhnomPenhandputsomeofthepieces

backtogether: