one.WhateverforceswefoughtinCambodiawewouldnothavetofightin
Vietnamandviceversa.Thewarbythenwasasinglewar,asLeDucThohad
proclaimed;therewasturmoilinCambodiapreciselybecauseHanoiwas
determinedtouseitasabaseforitsinvasionofSouthVietnamandtoestablish
itshegemonyoverIndochina.
ByApril21wehadastarkchoice.WecouldpermitNorthVietnamto
overrunthewholeofCambodiasothatitwasanindisputablepartofthe
battlefieldandthenattackitbyairandsea—evenRogerstoldmeonApril21that
iftheCommuniststookoverCambodia,hebelievedallbombingrestrictions
shouldbeended.OrwecouldresistCambodia’sabsorption,supportingthe
independenceofagovernmentrecognizedbytheUnitedNationsandmostother
nations,includingtheSovietUnion.[
Curiouslyenough,oneofthemostimplacablecritics
ofourpolicyinCambodiapresentsthesameanalysisofwhatourchoiceswere:
BackinMarchandApriltheadministrationhadhadfreedomofchoice
inreactingtoeventsinCambodia.Ifithaddecidednottoencourage,letalone
toarmLonNol,itcould havecompelledeitherthereturnofSihanouk or,at
lEast,anattempt,byLonNol,topreservethecountry’sflawedneutrality.This
wouldnothavebeenanidealsolutionforWashington,itwouldprobablyhave
meantagovernmentdominatedbyHanoiandattheveryleastitwouldhave
allowed the Communists continued use of Sihanoukville (which Lon Nol
renamedKompongSom)andthesanctuaries.ButasthesuppressedNational
Intelligence Estimate had pointed out, short of permanent occupation the
sanctuaries would always pose a military problem for a South Vietnamese
government;thatwasafactofbothgeographyandrevolutionarywarfare.
8
Thispassageisinteresting,firstofall,becauseitcombinesallthemisconceptionsabout
eventsinCambodiain1970.MynarrativecanleavenodoubtthatwedidnotencourageLon
NolnorevenbegintoarmhimforweeksafterNorthVietnamesetroopswereravaginga
neutralcountry.TheoptionofLonNol’srestoringCambodia’sneutralitydidnotexist;ithad
beenexplicitlyrejectedbyLeDucTho.AndbythenSihanoukwasnolongerinapositiontobe
neutralist.HecouldreturnonlybydestroyingtheLonNolfaction,whichhadpreviously
constitutedhisowngovernmentandwhosenucleushewouldneedtobalanceoffagainsthis
newfoundKhmerRouge“friends.”Therealprospectbeforeus,therefore,wasexactlywhatthe
quotedparagraphdescribesasthemostlikelyoutcome:thereopeningofSihanoukville,a
governmentinPhnomPenhdominatedbyHanoi,andreopenedsanctuariesnownolongeran
isolatedstripbutcomprisingallofEasternCambodia.WhereIdiffersharplyfromtheparagraph
isinitsassertionthatwehad“freedomofchoice.”Thisispreciselywhatwedidnothave,for
theprospectitdescribeswouldhavemeantamassiveshiftinthemilitarybalanceinIndochina:
anoverwhelming,insurmountable,anddecisivemenacetothesurvivalofSouthVietnam.
Asfortheallegedly“suppressed”NationalIntelligenceEstimate,thisisanotherfiction.
Nointelligenceestimatewasever“suppressed”orinhibitedbytheNSCoffice.Theywere