The Chinese government actually worked with the United States to gain cooperation
from Beijing's longtime ally, Pakistan, in the war against Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda
terrorist network and the Taliban government in Afghanistan — despite the possibility
of a long-term US military presence in Pakistan. And when the United States announced
its withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in late 2001, Beijing's protests
were muted, even though a US missile defense system would erode the credibility of
China's small nuclear deterrent.
It is difficult to speculate about the motives for policy initiatives in a secretive,
authoritarian political system like that of China. Nevertheless, several factors appeared
to account for Beijing's unusual restraint.
First, the Chinese Communist Party elite wanted to avoid any international controversy.
Second, China's leaders desperately needed to preserve and expand the economic
relationship with the United States. The global economic slowdown, and especially the
deepening recession in East Asia, has made the US market more crucial than ever. China
felt that it could not let quarrels over other matters jeopardize access to that market.
Finally, Chinese leaders were increasingly alarmed at the signs of a
growing rapprochement between the United States and China's traditional rival. India.
Beijing worries (with good reason) about the possible emergence of a US-Indian
«strategic partnership» directed against China. The Chinese response to the warming
relations between Washington and New Delhi has been to try to improve China's own
relations with both capitals.
The turbulent US relationship with Russia
The relationship between Russia and the United States under the Bush administration
had a very difficult start. Just weeks after Bush took office, the United
Statesexpelled more than 50 Russian diplomats on charges of espionage. Moscow
responded by expelling an equal number of US diplomats. Such issues as the
further expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and US withdrawal
from the ABM Treaty also fueled tensions.
Gradually, though, the relationship seemed to improve. Moscow's reaction to the
September 2001 terrorist attacks appeared to create an opportunity for improvement.
Not only did the Russian president denounce the attacks, but he gave the United States
substantive assistance in a variety of ways. Most crucially, Russia made it clear to the
governments of the Central Asian republics that it did not object to a temporary US
military presence in the region to wage the war in Afghanistan. Without Russia's
approval, the United States would have found it far more difficult to gain the cooperation
of those governments.
Russia helped the United States in other ways. For example, Moscow resisted the
demand of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut its oil output
to prevent a fall of global oil prices. As the world's second-largest oil producer, Russia
had a crucial role to play. Instead of responding favorably to OPEC's requests, Moscow
maintained production at high levels — a position favored by the United States.
How did the US administration reward Russia for its cooperation? One of the
administration's first initiatives was to announce America's withdrawal from the ABM
Treaty, which Moscow had long regarded as the centerpiece of its relationship with the
United States on arms-control issues.
As if the withdrawal from the ABM Treaty weren't enough, US officials let it be known
that the United States intended to maintain a long-term military presence in the Central
Asian republics. This was a classic deceit, and Russian officials made it clear that they
were not happy about Washington's action. Russia clearly prefers a close, cooperative
relationship with the United States and is not willing to close the door on that possibility.
But if Washington continues to take unfair advantage, Russia can and probably will
pursue other options. Serious long-term damage will occur if the Russian people begin to
see the United States as a hostile power that always attempts to take advantage of their
country.