Иванов О.П. Беловинцева Е.Г. Читаем газету и обсуждаем международную политику
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1. What conflicts will pose the most frequent threat stability around the world?
2. Why will inter-state wars grow in lethality?
3. What features of future internal conflicts can you name?
4. What will internal conflicts frequently trigger?
5. What will internal conflicts cause?
6. What are internal conflicts growing from?
7. Why will major states wish to minimize then direct Involvement in internal
conflicts?
8. What will China, India and Russia oppose? And why?
5. Using the active vocabulary retell the article in English.
6. Questions for discussion.
1. What conflicts do you believe will be more dangerous and why?
2. Why do you think non-government experts assume that many internal conflicts,
particularly those arising from communal disputes, will continue to be
dangerous, long-lasting and difficult to terminate?
3. Why will internal conflicts cause spillover into inter state conflicts?
4. How do you think religious and ethnic discontent, increasing migration pressures
may affect Russian security?
5. Do you think possible military intervention of Western governments,
international and regional organizations in certain internal conflicts may threaten
Russia's security?
III
Translate the following texts into English.
1
Превентивная война — война захватническая, в этом нет сомнения. Она не может
подходить под определение справедливой оборонительной войны. Такое заявление
сделал председатель католической организации «Справедливость и мир».
«Каждое государство имеет право защищаться от нападения, — уточнил он, — но
это должно быть реальное нападение, а не вероятность агрессии. Вначале должна
быть агрессии, а пнем отпетый, оборонительный удар, а не наоборот».
2
Индия пристально следит за ракетно-ядерными программами Пакистана и
предпринимает соответствующие меры на случай применения на ее территории
ядерного или биологического оружия. Об этом проинформировал министр обороны
страны верхнюю палату парламента. Индия делает все, подчеркнул он, чтобы
гарантировать защиту от атомного оружия.
Он также заявил, что Пакистан вновь открыл на своей территории лагеря и учебные
центры по подготовке террористов с целью их последующей отправки в Индию для
совершении террористических актов и дестабилизации обстановки в этом регионе.
Comment on the quotation:
«Against war it may be said that it makes the victor stupid and the vanquished
revengeful». (Nietzsche)
SECTION С
1. Read the article and look up the meaning of the underlined words and
phrases in the dictionary.
Interstate conflicts
Over the next 15 years, the international system will have to adjust to changing power
relationships in key regions.
• China's potential. Estimates of China beyond five years are unpredictable. Some
projections indicate that Chinese power will rise because of the growth of its
economic and military capabilities. Other projections indicate that political,
social, and economic pressures will increasingly challenge the stability and
legitimacy of the regime. Mostassessments today argue that China will seek to
avoid conflict in the region to promote stable economic growth and to ensure
internal stability. A strong China, others assert, would seek to adjust regional
power arrangements to its advantage, risking conflict with neighbors and some
powers external to the region. A weak China would increase prospects for
criminality, narcotics trafficking, illegal migration, WMD proliferation, and
widespread social instability.
• Russia's decline. By 2015, Russia will be challenged even more than today to
adjust its expectations for world leadership to the sharply reduced resources it
will have to play that role. The quality of Russian governance is an open question
as is whether the country will be able to make the transition in a manner that
preserves rather than breaks regional stability.
• Japan's uncertainty. In the view of many experts, Japan will have difficulty
maintaining its current position as the world's third largest economy by 2015.
Tokyo has so far not shown a willingness to carry through the painful economic
reforms necessary to slow the erosion of its leadership role in Asia. In the
absence of an external shock, Japan is similarly unlikely to accelerate changes in
security policy.
• India's prospects. India will strengthen its role as a regional power, hut many
uncertainties about the effects of global trends on its society cast doubt on how
far India will go. India faces growing extremes between wealth and poverty, a
mixed picture on natural resources, and problems with internal governance.
The changing dynamics of state power will combine with other factors to affect the risk
of conflict in various regions. Changing military capabilities will be prominent among the
factors that determine the risk of war. In South Asia, for example, that risk will remain
fairly high over the next 15 years. India and Pakistan are both prone tomiscalculation.
Both will continue to build up their nuclear and missile forces.
India most likely will expand the size of its nuclear-capable force. Pakistan's nuclear and
missile forces also will continue to increase. Islamabad has publicly claimed that the
number of nuclear weapons and missiles it deploys will be based on «minimum»
deterrence, and will be independent of the size of India's arsenal. A noticeable increase
in the size of India's arsenal, however, would prompt Pakistan to further increase the
size of its own arsenal.
Russia will be unable to maintain conventional forces, that are both sufficient and
modern or to project significant in Hilary power with conventional means. The Russian
military will increasingly rely on its declining strategic and theater nuclear arsenals to
deter or, if deterrence fails, to counter large-scale conventional assaults on Russian
territory.
• Moscow will maintain as many strategic missiles and associated nuclear
warheads as it believes it can afford but well below START I or II
5
limitations.
The total Russian force by 2015, including air launched cruise missiles, probably
will be below 2,500 warheads.
• Russia will invest scarce resources in selected and secretive military technology
programs, especially WMD, hoping to counter Western conventional and strategic
superiority,
China by 2015 will have deployed tens to several lens of missiles with nuclear warheads
targeted against the Dinted Stales, mostly more survivable land- and sea-based mobile
missiles. It also will have hundreds of shorter-range ballistic and cruise missiles for use
in regional conflicts. Some of these shorter-range missiles will have nuclear warheads;
most will be armed with conventional warheads as ballistic missile defense.
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) will remain the world's largest military, but the
majority of the force will not be fully modernized by 2015. China could close the
technological gap with the West in one or more major weapons systems. China's
capability for regional military operations is likely to improve significantly by 2015.
• China will be exploiting advanced weapons and production technologies acquired
from abroad — Russia, Israel, Europe, Japan, and the United States — that will
enable it to integrate naval and air capabilities against Taiwan and potential
adversaries in the South China
• In the event of a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue, some of China's
military objectives — such as protecting the sea lanes for Persian Gulf oil —
could become closer to those of the United States. Nevertheless, as an emerging
regional power, China would continue to expand its influence without regard to
US interests.
2. Give Russian equivalents of the following words and phrases.
Deterrence; cruise missiles; an objective; to expand one's influence; governance; to
determine; to adjust; conventional forces; to cast doubt on smth; an assessment; to be
prone to miscalculation; WMD proliferation; unpredictable; sufficient; an estimate;
resolution; to build up; START I and II; superiority; transition.
3. Give English equivalents of the following words and phrases and reproduce
the sentences from the text with this active vocabulary.
Силы общего назначения; распространение оружия массового уничтожения;
превосходство; оценка (два синонима); переход; быть подверженным просчету;
цель; определять; бросить сомнение на; договор СНВ-1 и СНВ-2; непредсказуемый;
наращивание; разрешение (конфликта); устрашение; крылатые ракеты;
руководство; приспосабливаться; расширить свое влияние; достаточный.
4. Read the article again and answer the questions using the active vocabulary.
1. What will the international system have to adjust to over the next 15 years?
2. What are estimates of China beyond five years?
3. What do most assessments argue about China?
4. What is the quality assessment of Russian governance?
5. What is the forecast for Japan?
6. What are both India and Pakistan prone to?
7. Will India and Pakistan reduce their nuclear and missile forces?
8. What will Pakistan's and India's nuclear forces be based on?
9. What will Russia be unable to maintain?
10. How will Russia try to counter Western superiority?
11. How can the peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue affect Chinese military
objectives?
12. Will China diminish its influence?
5. Using the active vocabulary retell the article in English.
6. Questions for discussion.
1. To what extent do you think the forecast for Russia is correct? What is your
forecast for Russia over the next 15 years?
2. Can strained Indian-Pakistani relations result in a large-scale war?
3. How does growing nuclear potential of Pakistan and India affect international
security?
4. Do you agree with the Chinese perspectives forecast? If yes, how can they affect
international and Russian security?
5. Do you agree that Japan can lose its position in the world economy? In what way
can this influence Russian-Japanese relations?
1 the Jordan River — в английском языке названия рек, морей и океанов
употребляются с определенным артиклем. Напр. The Thames, the Black Sea, the
Pacific Ocean
2 ceasefire
3 the latter — если упоминаются два субъекта, то чтобы не повторять их имена или
названия несколько раз, первый именуется the former, а второй the latter
4 «the axis of evil»
5 START – Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty – Договор по СНВ (Стратегические
наступательные вооружения)
UNIT 4. ELECTIONS
SECTION A
I
1. Read the article and look up the meaning of the underlined words and
phrases in the dictionary.
Kenyans to elect leader in December
Kenya will hold general elections at the end of December to elect a successor to the
president, who has ruled the country for 24 years.
«The elections will be at the end of December», said the president, who will not be
eligible to run under new electoral rules introduced in 1991 that prohibit the head of
state from serving more than two five-year terms. He gave no precise date for the
elections.
2. Give Russian equivalents of the following words and phrases.
Eligible to run; to rule the country; under new rules; to hold general elections; a five-
year term; to elect; a successor.
3. Give English equivalents of the following words and phrases. Reproduce the
sentences from the article with them.
Пятилетний срок; проводить всеобщие выборы; преемник; имеющий право
избираться; выбирать; управлять страной; по новым правилам.
4. Complete the following statements using the active vocabulary.
1. ... at the end of December.
2. Kenya will elect a successor to the president, who ...
3. ... under the new electoral rules.
4. The new electoral rules prohibit...
5. Render the article in English using the active vocabulary.
II
1. Read the article and look up the meaning of the underlined words and
phrases in the dictionary.
2nd round of voting held for new Parliament
Bahrain held a second round of voting Thursday in landmark elections for the kingdom's
first Parliament, with two women candidates.
Results from the last week's first round of voting showed a mix of secularist and
Islamic candidates. Six women were knocked out of the race last week, leaving two
women candidates hopeful of winning seats.
Kuwait is the only other Arab nation with a Parliament in the Gulf region, but women are
excluded.
2. Give Russian equivalents of the following words and phrases.
Elections for the Parliament; secularist candidates; to win seats; to be knocked out of
the race; voting; landmark.
3. Give English equivalents of the following words and phrases.
Светские кандидаты; знаменательный/поворотный; получить места в парламенте;
голосование; выборы в парламент; сойти с дистанции.
4. Answer the questions on the article.
1. Why do you think the voting in Bahrain is called landmark elections?
2. What did the results of the first round show?
3. Are there any women candidates? Do you think it's typical for an Islamic
country?
4. Do any other countries in the Gulf region have a Parliament?
5. What Gulf region countries do you know?
5. Retell the article using the active words and phrases.
III
1. Read the article and look up the meaning of the underlined words and
phrases in the dictionary.
Election veteran promises clean-up
After a lifetime of trying, Deniz Baykal, one of Turkey's veteran politicians, stands a
chance of becoming the country's next prime minister in Sunday's general election.
Opinion polls put his Republican People's party in second place after the pro-Islamic
Justice and Development party.
Justice and Development party still enjoys a lead of at least 10 per centage points, but
the last few days before the election may be critical in attracting undecided
voterswho make up almost a quarter of the electorate.
Mr. Baykal needs to convince these voters that his party is best equipped to manage the
economy and fight corruption. Indeed, his campaign promise to lift the immunitythat has
shielded members of parliament from corruption charges has proven very popular.
2. Give Russian equivalents of the following words and phrases.
To lift the immunity; an opinion poll; to stand a chance; to manage the economy; to
enjoy a lead; to fight corruption; corruption charges; undecided voters; 10 per centage
points; to make up a quarter of electorate.
3. Give English equivalents of the following words and phrases. Reproduce the
sentences from the article with them.
Опрос общественного мнения; иметь шанс; управлять экономикой; не принявшие
решения избиратели; опережать на 10%; обвинения в коррупции; иметь
преимущество; бороться с коррупцией; снять иммунитет; составлять четверть
электората.
4. Say if the following statements are true or false. Use the introductory
phrases for agreement and disagreement.
Agreement: Yes, that's right. It's absolutely correct.
Disagreement: No, that's not true, I'm afraid. I'm sorry, I can't agree with it.
1. Deniz Baykal has no chance of winning the elections in Turkey.
2. According to the opinion polls his party takes the second place in the race.
3. Justice and Development Party enjoys the lead of about 30 per cent.
4. The number of undecided voters is very small, it's not more than 5%.
5. Mr. Baykal has to convince the undecided voters that his party will increase
spending on social needs.
6. The campaign promise to lift immunity proved very popular.
5. Render the article in English using the active vocabulary.
IV
1. Read the article and look up the meaning of the underlined words and
phrases in the dictionary.
Fears for Serbian poll after low turnout
The turnout in Serbia's presidential poll yesterday fell below the 50 per cent needed for
the election to be valid, threatening to create a political vacuum and stall the country's
reform program.
As polling ended, turnout was estimated at only 45.5 per cent. The
current Yugoslav president and projected winner easily won the majority of votes.
with the preliminary count giving him 66.7 per cent of the vote, compared with 30 per
cent for his rival.
If the failure of the elections is confirmed, the Speaker of Serbia's parliament will
become the acting president in December.
The law is unclear about when the elections should be attempted again.
After the polls closed both candidates criticized the electoral law, echoing the concerns of
the international community. An adviser to the president said the failed electionswould
force Serbia into a «political vacuum for two or three months» until the parliament calls
for new polls.
2. Give Russian equivalents of the following words and phrases.
To win the majority; turnout; the failed elections; the preliminary count; to stall the
reform; rival; the current president; the acting president; electoral law; presidential poll.
3. Give Russian equivalents of the following words and phrases. Reproduce the
sentences from the article with them.
Несостоявшиеся выборы; получить большинство голосов; исполняющий обязанности
президента; предварительный подсчет; выборы президента; действующий
президент; соперник; загнать реформу в тупик; закон о выборах; явка (на
избирательные участки).
4. Answer the following questions on the article using the active vocabulary.
1. What can stall the country's reform program in Serbia?
2. What is needed for the elections to be valid?
3. How many votes did the current president get?
4. Who will become the acting president if the failure of the elections is confirmed?
5. When should next elections take place?
6. What can failed elections lead to?
V
1. Read the article and look up the underlined words and phrases in the
dictionary.
German election battle heads for a tense finish
Voters in Sunday's German general elections will be sounding the closing bell on one of
the most dramatic campaigns for decades.
The ruling coalition of Social Democrats and Greens leads in most opinion polls this
week, but the outcome and the composition of the next coalition, remain wide open.
Whichever party emerges the winner, Germany's complex voting system and the
nuances of coalition building makes the complexion of the next government difficult to
predict.
This year's elections herald the first postwar reduction in the size of the Bundestag, the
parliamentary lower house, from 665 to 598 seats in a response to population
decline and budgetary pressures. This has intensified competition for the remaining
seats.
Partly because of the parties' close standing in the polls, voter turnout is expected to be
high. In the previous election, 82 per cent of voters cast ballots — high by international
standards. similar turnout among 61.2 eligible voters is expected this time.
Germany's electoral system, based on proportional representation, is distinctive in giving
each elector two votes, for constituency representatives and parties. The second vote,
for parties, is decisive as it determines each group's share of the seats.
Parties must also overcome a minimum 5 per cent threshold to be represented in
parliament, in a rule aimed at excluding small, potentially extremist groups and ensuring
stable majorities.
2. Give Russian equivalents of the following words and phrases.
Opinion polls; lower house (upper house); population decline; voting system; to stand
close in the polls; outcome; electoral system; composition of a coalition; 5 per cent
threshold; to ensure stable majority; to cast ballots.
3. Give English equivalents of the following words and phrases.
Избирательная система; опрос общественного мнения; 5-процентный барьер;
набрать почти равное количество голосов; итог; верхняя палата парламента
(нижняя палата парламента); обеспечить стабильное большинство; отдавать голос
(бюллетень); уменьшение численности населения; состав коалиции; система
голосования.
4. Say if the following statements are true or false. Use the introductory
phrases for agreement and disagreement. (See III. 4.)
1. Germany's elections will start on Sunday.
2. The ruling coalition lags behind according to opinion polls.
3. The outcome of the elections as well as the composition of the next coalition are
not clear yet.
4. The German electoral system clearly defines the make-up of the next parliament.
5. The size of the Bundestag has been reduced this year due to budgetary
pressures.
6. A great number of people are going to take part in the elections.
7. The turnout of 82% is rather low by international standards.
8. Each voter has two votes.
9. Every party that takes part in elections should be represented in the parliament.
5. Translate the following texts into English using Translation Notes.
1
ТУРЦИЯ. В стране вчера прошли досрочные выборы в парламент страны. Выборы
должны были состояться
1
в 2004 году, однако были перенесены в связи с расколом
в правительственной коалиции. Судя по опросам, наибольшие шансы на победу
имеет недавно созданная Партия справедливости и развития.
2
США. Американский президент совершает поездку по южным штатам страны, чтобы
поддержать кандидатов от Республиканской партии на предстоящих выборах в
Конгресс. Одновременно пройдут выборы губернаторов 36 из 50 штатов.
3
Президент США подписал законопроект
2
, направленный на усовершенствование
избирательной системы США. Документ, одобренный ранее Конгрессом, должен
исключить повторение ситуаций, когда путаница с подсчетом голосов поставила
страну на грань
3
политического кризиса. Новый закон получил название «Помощь
Америке и голосовании» и предусматривает выделение 3,9 млрд. долларом и
бюджеты штатов. Деньги пойдут на замену устаревших машин для подсчета
результатов голосования, подготовку добровольцев, работающих на избирательных
участках, и распространение информации о выборах. Новые компьютерные
программы должны предотвратить возможные ошибки. Закон устанавливает единые
базовые требования для всех 50 штатов.
SECTION B
I
1. Read the article and look up the meaning of the underlined words in the
dictionary.
Choosing the nation's President
Every four years Americans participate in a unique and exciting ritual — the selection of
the nation's President. The summer before the election, each of the major political
parties holds a convention. Delegates from every state meet together to choose
candidates for President and Vice-President and to determine the party's program (or
platform, as it is called).
The number of delegates from each state is determined by its population and its support
for that party in previous elections. After routine formalities, convention business usually
begins with creation and acceptance of a party platform. A platform is a very general
statement of the party's philosophy, goals, and position on issues of national and
international concern. The next business of the convention is the nomination of
prospective presidential candidates. When nominations are completed, votes are taken
alphabetically by state. Several roll calls may be necessary before one nominee wins the
majority of votes needed to become the party's candidate.
Once the presidential candidate is selected, his running mate (the vice-presidential
candidate) must be chosen. Traditionally, a party's presidential and vice-presidential
candidates come from different sections of the country and have somewhat different
political views. Thus, the party achieves what is called a balanced ticket, a combination
of candidates that will appeal to many different blocks of voters.
Actual campaigning traditionally begins on Labor Day. From that time until election day,
voters are bombarded from all sides by radio, television, newspapers and personal
communications with political material. Each candidate tries to convince a majority of
American voters that he is best qualified to lead the country for the next four years.
Because campaigning is extremely expensive and a candidate must receive a majority of
the electoral votes, presidential politics has, to a large extent, been limited to two major
parties — the Democratic and Republican parties. A great number of votes are needed to
win a national election. No candidate can hope to survive by appealing to one or two
classes of voters. Each party has a familiar symbol: for Democrats it is a donkey, and for
the Republicans — an elephant.
On the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, voters cast their ballots for
President and Vice-President. Some members of Congress and many state and local
officials are also elected at this time. Thanks to voting machines and computers,
Americans usually know the winners by late evening.
The President and Vice-President are not actually chosen by popular votes but by
electoral votes. That is, the people vote for electors who are, as a group, known as the
Electoral College. This group selects the President and Vice-President. When a citizen
casts his vote for a presidential candidate, he is really choosing electors. Each elector is
expected (although not obliged) to vote for the candidate who wins the majority of
popular votes in his state. The number of electors allotted to each state is equal to the
total number of representatives and senators who represent that state in Congress.
Thus, states with larger populations have more electoral votes. The candidate who
receives a majority of the votes in a particular state receives all of that state's electoral
votes. It is, therefore, possible for a presidential candidate to win a majority of popular
votes but not a majority of electoral votes, thereby losing the election. This can happen
if the opponent wins by small margins in states with many electoral votes and loses by
large margins in states with few electoral votes. At least two presidential elections have
been decided this way.
To be elected, candidates for President and Vice-President must receive a majority of
votes in the Electoral College. If no candidate receives a majority, the House of
Representatives chooses the President from the top three candidates, and the Senate
chooses the Vice-President from the top two candidates having the highest number of
electoral votes.
The newly-elected President is inaugurated in January during a solemn, nationally-
televised ceremony. He then moves into the White House, appoints members of his
Cabinet, and begins the difficult task of trying to persuade Congress to help him fulfil his
campaign promises.
2. Give Russian equivalents of the following words and phrases. Reproduce
sentences from the text where they are used.
Party platform; to lose the election; to win the election; to cast one's ballot; to lose by
large margins; to win by small margins; to hold a convention; a balanced ticket; a
running mate; to appeal to smb; the newly-elected president; to choose by popular
vote; nomination of prospective presidential candidates.
3. Read the article again and answer the questions using the active vocabulary.
1. What is a party platform? Where is it determined?
2. Who is the running mate?
3. Why do presidential and vice-presidential candidates have a bit different political
views?
4. Why do you think the list of candidates is limited to two major political parties?
5. When is the election day?
6. Is the president chosen by popular votes? What's the Electoral College?
7. Is it possible for a president to win a majority of popular votes, but not a
majority of electoral votes?
8. When is the president inaugurated?
9. Compare the electoral systems of the USA and Russia. Are there any similarities?
What are the differences?
II
1. Read the article and look up the meaning of the underlined words and
phrases in the dictionary.
Islamists in Turkey take strong lead vote
ANKARA, Turkey. A party with Islamic roots took a commanding lead in Turkish elections
Sunday, powered by voters angry at their country's slide into its worst economic crisis in
decades. The Justice and Development Party took 35 per cent of the vote with almost
half the vote counted and was likely to be able to form a government without coalition
partners.
«The preliminary results show that we are ahead by a great margin». the leader of the
Justice party said in a news conference. He said that his government's first priority will
be to «speedily pursue the EU membership process». He said that his government will
«follow an economic program to integrate the country with the world».
«We have no intention to challenge the world», he told Dow Jones Newswires. «Under
our government. Turkey will be in harmony with the world». With 47 per cent of the total
electorate's vote counted, the Justice and Development Party was taking 35 per cent of
the vote, the semi-official Anatolia news agency reported. Its rival Republican People's
Party was taking 19 per cent of the vote and coming in second. Anatolia said.
No other party had more than 10 per cent of the vote, the threshold that parties must
cross to enter parliament. Prime Minister 's party was taking only 1 per cent of the vote
and his coalition partners were well below the 10 per cent threshold needed for entry
into parliament. «We committed suicide», the Prime Minister said, referring to
parliament's agreement to hold elections 18 months early. Legislators agreed to the vote
amid Ecevit's failing health. Like many secularists, he also expressed concern over the
Justice party's Islamic roots. Many secularists fear that the party may try and carry out