336 Chapter 15 Discrete Dynamical Systems
Clearly, x
n
= k
n
x
0
so we conclude that the population explodes if k>1,
becomes extinct if 0 ≤ k<1, or remains constant if k = 1.
This is an example of a first-order difference equation. This is an equation
that determines x
n
based on the value of x
n−1
. A second-order difference
equation would give x
n
based on x
n−1
and x
n−2
. From our point of view, the
successive populations are given by simply iterating the function f
k
(x) = kx
with the seed x
0
.
A more realistic assumption about population growth is that there is a
maximal population M such that, if the population exceeds this amount, then
all resources are used up and the entire population dies out in the next year.
One such model that reflects these assumptions is the discrete logistic
population model. Here we assume that the populations obey the rule
x
n+1
= kx
n
1 −
x
n
M
where k and M are positive parameters. Note that, if x
n
≥ M , then x
n+1
≤ 0,
so the population does indeed die out in the ensuing year.
Rather than deal with actual population numbers, we will instead let x
n
denote the fraction of the maximal population, so that 0 ≤ x
n
≤ 1. The
logistic difference equation then becomes
x
n+1
= λx
n
(
1 − x
n
)
where λ > 0 is a parameter. We may therefore predict the fate of the initial
population x
0
by simply iterating the quadratic function f
λ
(x) = λx(1 − x)
(also called the logistic map). Sounds easy, right? Well, suffice it to say that
this simple quadratic iteration was only completely understood in the late
1990s, thanks to the work of hundreds of mathematicians. We will see why
the discrete logistic model is so much more complicated than its cousin, the
logistic differential equation, in a moment, but first let’s do some simple cases.
We consider only the logistic map on the unit interval I . We have f
λ
(0) = 0,
so 0 is a fixed point. The fixed point is attracting in I for 0 < λ ≤ 1, and
repelling thereafter. The point 1 is eventually fixed, since f
λ
(1) = 0. There
is a second fixed point x
λ
= (λ − 1)/λ in I for λ > 1. The fixed point x
λ
is
attracting for 1 < λ ≤ 3 and repelling for λ > 3. At λ = 3 a period doubling
bifurcation occurs (see Exercise 4). For λ-values between 3 and approximately
3. 4, the only periodic points present are the two fixed points and the 2-cycle.
When λ = 4, the situation is much more complicated. Note that f
λ
(1/2) = 0
and that 1/2 is the only critical point for f
λ
for each λ. When λ = 4, we have
f
4
(1/2) = 1, so f
2
4
(1/2) = 0. Therefore f
4
maps each of the half-intervals
[0, 1/2] and [1/2, 1]onto the entire interval I . Consequently, there exist points
y
0
∈[0, 1/2] and y
1
∈[1/2, 1] such that f
4
(y
j
) = 1/2 and hence f
2
4
(y
j
) = 1.