304 Chapter 14 The Lorenz System
the actual equations themselves. Indeed, this is the avenue we pursue here. We
will present a geometric model for the Lorenz system that can be completely
analyzed using tools from discrete dynamics. Although this model has been
known for some 30 years, it is interesting to note the fact that this model was
only shown to be equivalent to the Lorenz system in the year 1999.
14.1 Introduction to the Lorenz System
In 1963, E. N. Lorenz [29] attempted to set up a system of differential equations
that would explain some of the unpredictable behavior of the weather. Most
viable models for weather involve partial differential equations; Lorenz sought
a much simpler and easier-to-analyze system.
The Lorenz model may be somewhat inaccurately thought of as follows.
Imagine a planet whose “atmosphere” consists of a single fluid particle. As on
earth, this particle is heated from below (and hence rises) and cooled from
above (so then falls back down). Can a weather expert predict the “weather”
on this planet? Sadly, the answer is no, which raises a lot of questions about
the possibility of accurate weather prediction down here on earth, where we
have quite a few more particles in our atmosphere.
A little more precisely, Lorenz looked at a two-dimensional fluid cell that
was heated from below and cooled from above. The fluid motion can be
described by a system of differential equations involving infinitely many vari-
ables. Lorenz made the tremendous simplifying assumption that all but three
of these variables remained constant. The remaining independent variables
then measured, roughly speaking, the rate of convective “overturning” (x),
and the horizontal and vertical temperature variation (y and z, respectively).
The resulting motion led to a three-dimensional system of differential equa-
tions that involved three parameters: the Prandtl number σ , the Rayleigh
number r, and another parameter b that is related to the physical size of the
system. When all of these simplifications were made, the system of differential
equations involved only two nonlinear terms and was given by
x
= σ (y − x)
y
= rx − y − xz
z
= xy − bz.
In this system all three parameters are assumed to be positive and, moreover,
σ >b+ 1. We denote this system by X
= L(X). In Figure 14.1, we have
displayed the solution curves through two different initial conditions P
1
=
(0, 2, 0) and P
2
= (0, −2, 0) when the parameters are σ = 10, b = 8/3, and