events enhance the fit of the theoretical curves to the
measured global patterns.
By extending the theory of island biogeography
developed in the 1960s to the global scale, the logistic
curves applied to marine familial diversity have been
interpreted as reflecting evolution into new habitats
and empty niches until a level of dynamic equilibrium
is reached at the carrying capacity of the environ-
ment. This theory has received widespread, but not
universal, acceptance. It has been argued, for exam-
ple, that the shapes of the curves may represent not
global-scale biotic interactions but rather the total
effect of physical perturbations operating at a wide
range of geographical and temporal scales. Moreover,
the evidence for equilibrium, even on an ecological
rather than a geological time-scale, and the upper
limit on diversity that it would impose have also
been widely contested. The Palaeozoic diversity plat-
eau, taken to be strong evidence for equilibrium, may
have been maintained by factors other than biotic
interactions and may even be an artefact of the taxo-
nomic level of the data. Importantly, it is clear that
different clades or parts thereof may show very dif-
ferent patterns of biodiversity change.
The causes of biodiversity change Despite consider-
able research effort, there has been only limited success
in identifying ‘rules’ governing species and community
diversity and the relative abundances of species within
communities. It is highly unlikely, even for mass extinc-
tion events, that a single factor can be invoked to
explain global changes in biodiversity. In addition to
factors intrinsic to individual clades, a host of inter-
related extrinsic factors undoubtedly influence the evo-
lution, distribution, and diversity of organisms across
the spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. Crucially,
the factors operating at one scale may be very different
from those operating at another. Intriguingly though,
there is some evidence to suggest that the family-level
global diversity curve has properties of self-organized
criticality, and, thus, Phanerozoic diversity change may
be driven by the internal dynamics of life itself, as well
as responding to external factors.
The present-day concerns over biodiversity change
stem from the recognition of the deleterious conse-
quences of anthropogenic activities, including habitat
destruction, pollution, and influences on global cli-
mate. The fossil record provides a time perspective
not only on the patterns of biodiversity change but
also on the natural physical factors that drive it, from
local fluctuations in environmental conditions to plate
tectonics, eustasy, ocean circulation patterns, and cli-
mate changes. Heightened awareness of the quality
and detail of the data involved in the generation and
analysis of diversity curves at all spatial and temporal
scales should result in greater confidence in the
conclusions drawn from them.
See Also
Biological Radiations and Speciation. Biosediments
and Biofilms. Evolution. Fossil Plants: Gymnosperms.
Mesozoic: End Cretaceous Extinctions. Palaeoecology.
Palaeozoic: End Permian Extinctions. Sequence Stra-
tigraphy.
Further Reading
Bambach RK, Knoll AH, and Sepkoski JJ (2002) Anatom-
ical and ecological constraints on Phanerozoic animal
diversity in the marine realm. Proceedings of the Na-
tional Academy of Sciences USA 99: 6854–6859.
Benton MJ (1999) The history of life: large databases in
palaeontology. In: Harper DAT (ed.) Numerical Palaeo-
biology, pp. 249–283. Chichester: Wiley.
Benton MJ (2001) Biodiversity on land and in the sea.
Geological Journal 36: 211–230.
Briggs DEG and Crowther P (eds.) (2001) Palaeobiology II.
Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.
Crame JA and Owen AW (eds.) (2002) Palaeobiogeography
and Biodiversity Change: The Ordovician and Mesozoic–
Cenozoic Radiations. Special Publication 194. London:
Geological Society.
Gaston KJ and Spicer JI (1998) Biodiversity: An Introduc-
tion. Oxford: Blackwell Science.
Hewzulla D, Boulter MC, Benton MJ, and Halley JM
(1999) Evolutionary patterns from mass originations
and mass extinctions. Philosophical Transactions of the
Royal Society of London Series B 354: 463–469.
Knoll AH (1994) Proterozoic and early Cambrian protists:
evidence for accelerating evolutionary tempo. Pro-
ceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 91:
6743–6750.
Levin SA (ed.) (2001) Encyclopedia of Biodiversity, 5 vols.
San Diego: Academic Press.
May RM (1992) How many species inhabit the Earth?
Scientific American October 1992: 18–24.
Miller AI (2000) Conversations about Phanerozoic global
diversity. Paleobiology 26(4 Suppl.): 53–73.
Sepkoski JJ (1984) A kinetic model of Phanerozoic taxo-
nomic diversity. III. Post-Paleozoic families and mass
extinctions. Paleobiology 10: 246–267.
Sepkoski JJ (1997) Biodiversity: past, present, and future.
Journal of Paleontology 71: 533–539.
Smith AB (2001) Large-scale heterogeneity of the fossil
record: implications for Phanerozoic biodiversity studies.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of
London, Series B 356: 351–367.
Ward BB (2002) How many species of prokaryotes are
there? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
USA 99: 10234–10236.
BIODIVERSITY 265