26
NEUTRALITY,
1866-1874
made it
impossible
to
continue
the
negotiations.
The
German
Army
could
only
be
reduced
in
two
ways
:
either
by changing
its
legislative
basis,
and
thereby
its
whole
character,
or
by
reducing
the
period
of
military
service
to two
and
a half
years.
The former
method was
impossible
;
the latter
had
been the
subject
of a five
years'
struggle
between
the
King
and his
Parliament,
and
he would rather
give
up
his
Throne than
yield
on
it.
Moreover,
as
Bismarck had
foretold,
the
King regarded
the
proposal
as
put
forward
in
the interests
of
France,
and
as
showing
no
regard
for
the
safety
of
Prussia.
It is
not
surprising
that this
attempt
should have failed. The
whole
interchange
of
views rested
on a
basis of
unreality.
The one
supreme
difficulty
which
barred the
way
to mutual confidence
between France
and
Germany
was never mentioned. Yet it
was
perfectly
clear
—
to
French
and
German
as
well as
to
disinterested
observers
—
that
the
tension
between
the two
countries
must
continue,
until
either
France
was
satisfied that
Prussia had
no
design
of
uniting
Germany,
or until
Prussia was
satisfied that France
would
not
oppose
such
a
Union
by
force.
The
character
of an
intrigue
was thus
inevitably
thrust
upon
the
negotiations
themselves.
The
French Government
was
desperately
anxious
that Bismarck should not know that
they
had
anything
to
do
with the
proposal,
since such
knowledge might
lead to
immediate
war;
while
Bismarck,
in
return,
professed
great eagerness
that the
French
Government
should
not
be
acquainted
with
it.
The
preparations
for a
plebiscite
which was to
ratify
the
recent
Constitutional
changes
in
France
provoked
the uneasiness of
Lyons,
who
feared that
a
failure
or
a
small
majority might
turn the
minds of
the Ministers to war.
Writing
to Clarendon on
May
6th,
he said:
"With
reference to
Loftus's
despatch,
I
sincerely
hope
that
his most
confidential informant is
not
so
well informed as he
represents
himself to
be,
and that
no
change
is
really
contemplated
in
the
status
quo
of
Hesse
and
Baden.
It
would be
quite
a
mistake
to
suppose
that this is a
moment
at which it would be safe
to
defy
France.
On
the
contrary,
a
war unmis-
takably provoked by
Prussia
would
be
hailed
by
many
as a
welcome
diversion
from internal
difficulties.
So
far
as I can
judge,
Ollivier is not
the man to shrink
from
one."
The
overwhelming
majority,
however,
which
Ollivier's
"devouring
activity
"
secured two
days
later
seemed a
pledge
of
renewed
confidence,
and the
last
month of
Clarendon's life
offered
no
premonitions
of
the
coming
storn. He died
suddenly
on
June
27th,
only
ten
days
before
the
Hohenzollern
candidature
became
publicly
known.
Lord
Clarendon
owed his
great reputation
at
home and abroad less