546 Chapter 20 The Quest for Sustainable Development
What is the evidence on the empirical validity of the pollution havens hypothesis
and its race to the bottom implication? Earlier surveys of the empirical work, such
as Dean (1992), found absolutely no support for the effect of environmental
regulation on either trade or capital flows. Jaffe et al. (1995) reach the same
conclusion in their survey of the effect of environmental regulations on U.S.
competitiveness. Several recent studies reviewed by Copeland and Taylor (2004),
however, have begun to find that environmental regulation can influence trade
flows and plant location, all other things being equal, though the effects are small.
Some of this work focuses on the effect of environmental regulations on the
movement of production among states within the United States, rather than to
developing countries. Studies by Kahn (1997), Greenstone (2002), and Becker and
Henderson (2000), for example, find that growth in such indicators as manu-
facturing activity and employment as well as new plant start-ups for polluting
industries was higher in attainment areas than in the more stringently regulated
nonattainment areas.
Has there been a discernable exodus of dirty industries to developing countries?
Apparently not. Studies that attempt to isolate composition, technique, and scale
effects generally find that the composition effect (the most important effect for
confirming the pollution havens hypothesis) is small relative to scale effects.
Furthermore, technique effects normally result in less, not more, pollution
(Hettige, Mani, and Wheeler, 2000). Though trade can increase pollution through
the scale effect, these findings are quite different from what we would expect from
a race to the bottom.
Actually, these results should not be surprising. Because pollution control costs
comprise a relatively small part of the costs of production, it would be surprising if
lowering environmental standards could become a major determinant of either
firm location decisions or the direction of trade unless the costs of meeting those
standards became a significant component of production cost.
The Porter “Induced Innovation” Hypothesis. The story does not end there.
Michael Porter (1991), a Harvard Business School professor, has argued that more
environmental protection can, under the right circumstances, promote jobs, not
destroy them. Now known as the “Porter induced innovation hypothesis,” this view
suggests that firms in nations with the most stringent regulations experience a
competitive advantage rather than a competitive disadvantage. Under this nontra-
ditional view, strict environmental regulations force firms to innovate, and innova-
tive firms tend to be more competitive. This advantage is particularly pronounced
for firms producing pollution control equipment (which can then be exported to
firms in countries subsequently raising their environmental standards), but it might
also be present for firms that find that meeting environmental regulations actually
lowers their production costs. Some instances of regulation-induced lower produc-
tion costs have been recorded in the literature (Barbera and McConnell, 1990), but
few studies have found the Porter hypothesis to be universally true.
While it seems clear that innovation induced by environmental regulation could
simultaneously increase productivity (lower costs) and lower emissions, it is less
clear why this would necessarily always or even normally be the case. And if it were