540 Chapter 20 The Quest for Sustainable Development
The third scenario (B) is similar in that it envisions initial growth followed by a
steady state, but with an important difference—those generations between t
1
and t
2
are worse off than the generation preceding them. Neither growth nor welfare
levels are sustainable at current levels, and the sustainability criterion would call
for policy to transform the economy so that earlier generations do not benefit
themselves at the expense of future generations.
The final scenario (A) denies the existence of sustainable per capita welfare
levels, suggesting that the only possible sustainable level is zero. All consumption
by the current generation serves simply to hasten the end of civilization.
These scenarios suggest three important dimensions of the sustainability issue:
(1) the existence of a positive sustainable level of welfare; (2) the magnitude of the
ultimate sustainable level of welfare vis-à-vis current welfare levels; and (3) the
sensitivity of the future level of welfare to actions by previous generations. The first
dimension is important because if positive sustainable levels of welfare are possible,
scenario A, which in some ways is the most philosophically difficult, is ruled out.
The second is important because if the ultimately sustainable welfare level is higher
than the current level, radical surgery to cut current living standards is not
necessary. The final dimension raises the issue of whether the ultimate sustainable
level of welfare can be increased or reduced by the actions of current generations.
If so, the sustainability criterion would suggest taking these impacts into account,
lest future generations be unnecessarily impoverished by involuntary wealth
transfers to previous generations.
The first dimension is relatively easy to dispense with. The existence of positive
sustainable welfare levels is guaranteed by the existence of renewable resources,
particularly solar energy, as well as by nature’s ability to assimilate a certain amount
of waste.
2
Therefore, we can rule out scenario A.
Scenarios B and C require actions to assure the maintenance of a sustainable
level of welfare. They differ in terms of how radical the actions must be. Although
no one knows exactly what level of economic activity can ultimately be sustained,
the ecological footprint measurements discussed later in this chapter suggest that
current welfare levels are not sustainable. If that controversial assessment is valid,
more stringent measures are called for. If scenario C is more likely, then the actions
could be more measured, but still necessary.
Current generations can affect the sustainable welfare levels of future genera-
tions both positively and negatively. We could use our resources to accumulate a
capital stock, providing future generations with shelter, productivity, and
transportation, but machines and buildings do not last forever. Even capital that
physically stands the test of time may become economically obsolete by being ill
suited to the needs of subsequent generations.
Our most lasting contribution to future generations would probably come from
what economists call human capital—investments in people. Though the people
2
One study estimates that humans are currently using approximately 19–25 percent of the renewable energy
available from photosynthesis. On land the estimate is more likely 40 percent (Vitousek et al., 1986).