30 Chaotic Modelling and Simulation
2.2 Model Construction
Models are approximations of reality. In some cases, they describe the real sit-
uations quite well. However, the exact form of a model is not always possible to
determine. The modelling process thus proceeds in two steps. First, a general form
for the model is provided, typically in the form of a modelling function. This func-
tion will depend on some unknown parameters, initial conditions, and possibly other
special characteristics, and thus can describe a number of different situations. The
second step in the process is the estimation of these parameters so that the model
approximates the real situation to the best of its potential a process typically known
as “model fitting.” In this section we will see numerous methods commonly used for
constructing models.
2.2.1 Growth/decay models
An important general class of modelling functions are the so called Growth Func-
tions. These are functions that express the growth of a system or of some special
characteristics of a system, and they have, in general, a positive first time derivative.
Similarly, functions with a negative first derivative would express the decline of a
system, and would in general describe a decay process. The mathematical treatment
in both cases is very similar.
It is important here to emphasise that one needs to strike a balance between the the-
oretical constructions of models, and the practical application of these models in real
situations. Practical applications that lack a theoretical background do not contribute
much to the development of any scientific field. A purely theoretical approach, on the
other hand, becomes relevant only when supported by related applications (Skiadas,
1994; Skiadas et al., 1994).
Growth functions can be described in a number of different ways. We discuss
some of these ways in the sections that follow.
2.2.1.1 Differential equation models
Models based on differential equations have been extensively used ever since the
invention of calculus. In such models, the system under consideration is described
by one or more functions that satisfy a system of differential equations. Thus, one
doesn’t always have a closed formula for the function, but a number of simulation
and approximation techniques are available.
During the modelling process, one usually agrees upon the general form of the sys-
tem, based on general considerations of the form of the solutions, and the expected
behaviour of the system. One then proceeds to estimate the parameters involved, and
to study the effect that these parameters have on the behaviour of the solution.
The most widely used growth/decay model is the exponential model, where the
rate change of the system is proportional to the system’s current state. This can be