Introduction 5
Equation (1.7), as expected, gives simple finite solutions without complications
and chaotic behaviour. This continuous model, called the logistic model, was applied
in demography by Verhulst already in 1838.
Chapter 2, further discusses models and the modelling process in general. Deter-
ministic, stochastic and chaotic models are introduced, along with chaotic analysis
and simulation techniques. The subsequent chapters deal with particular classes of
models, and their interesting behaviour.
1.2.1 The logistic map
Chapter 3 is devoted to a detailed analysis and simulation of the chaotic behaviour
of non-linear difference equations, starting with the logistic model. The logistic map
and its bifurcation diagram are presented. The bifurcation diagram exhibits the stable
orbit of the x values for each value of the chaotic parameter b. In the case of the
logistic model, the stable orbits become more and more complex as b increases,
culminating in the complete chaos observed for b close to 4.
Other models that are examined, and exhibit similar behaviour, are: the sinusoidal
model, the Gompertz model and a model proposed by May. Also, a class of models
with behaviour different than that of the quadratic maps are studied, the Gaussian-
type models. As can be seen clearly from the bifurcation diagrams of the logistic
(Figure 1.3(a)) and the Gaussian model (Figure 1.3(b)), there are clear differences
between the two classes of models, as well as some similarities in the chaotic win-
dows.
(a) Logistic (b) Gaussian
FIGURE 1.3: Bifurcations of the logistic and the Gaussian