
356
STEFAN0
TIBALDI
If
the behavior of the forecasting model, measured looking in particular at
the
WN
I
-
3
response, using, for example,
LSEO,
is
similar
to
its behavior
using
ENV
and different from the one obtained using
MEA,
while, con-
versely, the behavior using
LSMO
is
similar to the behavior using
MEA,
we
will infer that the “envelope” effect on the ultralong wavescomes from direct
forcing by the correspondent wavenumbers and that the mean zonal flow is
then influenced via wave- mean flow interaction.
If,
however, the contrary is
true
(LSEO
behaves like
MEA
and
LSMO
like ENV), we will infer that the
smaller scales of the orography have a direct (beneficial) effect on the evolu-
tion ofthe mean zonal flow and that this improved zonal flow affects, in turn,
the response of the planetary waves.
These experiments had to
be
canied out, for practical reasons, with the
ECMWF
T63
spectral model (Simmons and Jarraud, 1984) rather than with
the gridpoint model. There are, however, a number
of
experiments showing
that the impact
of
the envelope orography on the
ECMWF
T63 spectral
model is very similar to the one we have documented in the previous section
on the gridpoint model (e.g., Jarraud and Simmons, 1984). Another differ-
ence that should be mentioned here and that is also reported and explained
in Jarraud and Simmons
(
1984) is that the envelope orography used with the
spectral model is of the type
h,
=
h,
+
J2ph
and not
h,
=
hM
+
2j4,
as it was
in the case for the earlier experiments using the gridpoint model. This differ-
ence has its basis in
ECMWFs
operational needs (we should point out here
that the T63 spectral model using a
421h
envelope orography replaced in
operations at
ECMWF
the N48 gridpoint model with mean orography in
April 1983) and was canied over to the experiments described here only for
reasons of convenience.
All
available experimentation with the T63
ECMWF
spectral model seems to indicate that whatever strong signal is
emerging from this set
of
experiments can
be
transported to the gridpoint
model environment, and vice versa.
Figure
12
shows the Northern Hemispheric tropospheric anomaly corre-
lation coefficient of geopotential height for all waves (a, b, and c) and for the
wavenumber band
WN
1-3 only (d, e, and f) for the
case
chosen for this
experiment. The initial conditions were 30 January 1982 at
12
GMT
and all
forecasts were conducted up to
10
days. These particular initial conditions
were chosen
for
a variety of practical reasons, the main ones being that the
MEA
and
ENV
integrations were already available and that this was the case
study that had shown possibly the greatest sensitivity to the change in
orog-
raphy, among those
used
to
test the impact
of
the envelope orography on the
spectral model before their joint operational implementation in April 1983.
Let
us
first concentrate on panels a, b, d, and e. The important conclusion
that emerges is that, of the two alternatives described earlier in this section,
the second
is
by
far the most plausible one, since
LSEO
behaves almost