
290 Part III Investment risk and return
Modern strategic planning has moved away from crude portfolio planning devices
such as the Boston Consulting Group’s market share/market growth matrix towards
capital allocation methods that emphasise the creation of shareholder value. Central to
value-based approaches is discounting projected cash flows to determine the value to
shareholders of business units and their strategies. A key feature of the DCF approach is
the recognition that different business strategies involve different degrees of risk and should be
discounted at tailored risk-adjusted rates.
However, critics such as Reimann (1990) suggest that differential rates will increase
the likelihood of internal dissension, whereby a manager of a ‘penalised’ division
may resent the requirement to earn a rate of return significantly higher than some of
his colleague-competitors. This resentment may be worsened by the observation that
longer-term developments, especially in advanced manufacturing technology and
other risky, but potentially high value-added activities, may be ‘unfairly’ discrimi-
nated against. As a result, managers may be reluctant to propose some potentially
attractive projects.
As we saw in Chapter 8, risk-adjusted discount rates have the effect of compound-
ing risk differences, making ostensibly riskier projects appear to increase in risk over
time. One school of thought contends that in order to avoid this risk penalty, the
attempt to tailor discount rates to divisions should be modified, if not abandoned. For
example, instead of using differential discount rates, firms might use a more easily
understood and acceptable, company-wide discount rate for projects of ‘normal’ risk,
but appraise high-risk/high-return projects using different approaches.
Underlying these arguments is the familiar assertion that diversification by firms
differs crucially from shareholder diversification, so that applying the CAPM to the
former could be misleading. If an investor adds a new share to an existing portfolio,
the market risk of the portfolio will alter according to the Beta of the new security. If
its Beta is higher than that of the existing portfolio, then the portfolio Beta increases,
and vice versa. With corporate diversification, however, we are not dealing with a bas-
ket of shares of unrelated companies, which may be freely traded on the market. A
firm that diversifies rarely adds totally unrelated activities to its core operations. It
may add value if the new activity possesses synergy, or detract from value if the mar-
ket views the combination as merely a bundle of disparate, unwieldy activities that are
hard to manage.
Market risk can be altered by strategic diversification decisions at two levels. At the
corporate level, decisions concerning business and product mixes, and operating and
financial gearing can affect market risk. The effect of both types of gearing can be mag-
nified by the business cycle, so that a firm which engages in contra-cyclical diversifi-
cation may dampen oscillations in shareholder returns and thus reduce market risk.
At the business level, market risk can be reduced by tying up outlets and supplier
sources (i.e. by increasing market power), and by developing business activities that
enjoy important interrelationships, such as common skills or technologies (i.e. by
exploiting economies of scale).
Many managers feel that the emphasis on hurdle rates is probably misplaced inso-
far as accurate cash flow forecasts are more important to creating business value than
the particular discount rate applied to them. This probably helps explain the continu-
ing popularity of the payback method, and the reluctance, at least in the UK, to adopt
CAPM-based approaches. It may also explain why so many successful firms place
great emphasis on post-auditing capital projects in order to sharpen up the cash flow
forecasting and project appraisals of subordinate staff. Furthermore, there is evidence
11.9 A CRITIQUE OF DIVISIONAL HURDLE RATES
*
*This section relies heavily on arguments used by Reimann (1990).
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