ENGINEERING FEATURES OF DAMS AND RESERVOIRS 3.22
As an example, consider a stream with C
v
= 0.60, a desired draft ratio equal to 50 percent
of the mean annual discharge (D = 0.50), and a 1 percent probability of failure
(probability p = 1% and Z
p
= 2.33 from the table of normal distribution). From table 3.5
the value of d = 1.5, and the equation is solved for a capacity inflow value of = 0.437
for the conservation storage pool.
3.8.3 Computing Yield by Behavior Simulation
The yield from single or multiple reservoirs may be analyzed by iteratively solving water
mass balance across the impoundments for a given storage volume, inflow series and
operating rule, using a continuity equation having the following general form:
Storage
t
= storage
t-1
+ inflow - withdrawals - losses
Storage is the volume of water in the impoundment at the end of each time step. Inflow
includes all natural plus regulated inflows. Withdrawals include all controlled release
including diversions, minimum streamflow releases, and releases for sediment
management. Losses include all uncontrolled releases including spills, evaporation, and
seepage. By expressing reservoir geometry using stage-area and stage-storage curves,
behavior simulation can also provide information such as water levels, available power
head and evaporative losses at each time step.
The mass balance equation is solved iteratively over the duration of the entire hydro-
logic sequence, executing at each time step the operating rule which specifies parameters
such as the rate and seasonality of withdrawal, rationing or allocation rules when storage
drops below stated minimum levels, operating requirements associated with sediment
management, etc. At each time step, information on delivery rate, pool elevation, power
generation, spills and other parameters generated by the simulation are recorded, and can
subsequently be analyzed to determine the probabilistic characteristics of the system
behavior. Time steps of 1 month are frequently used in reservoir yield simulations, but at
sites where sediment management requires drawdown periods that are not even-month
multiples or last only a few days per year, shorter time steps will be required. Sediment
management activities using only water that would otherwise be spilled, such as sediment
routing described in the Loíza and Feather River case studies, do not require yield
analysis. However, real-time modeling of reservoir behavior during short time steps (e.g.,
15 minutes) may be necessary for analysis and implementation this procedure.
A behavior analysis for a single reservoir using historical datasets can be performed
using an electronic spreadsheet. Both simple and complex systems, including multiple
watershed, multiple-reservoir, multiple-use systems, can be analyzed by computer models
such as HEC-5 (U.S. Army, 1982) and the Ackers Reservoir Simulation Program (ARSP)
distributed by Boss International (1993).
3.8.4 Hydrologic Time Series
The historical data series available for any analysis will not be repeated exactly in future,
but may be interpreted and manipulated to provide insight into potential future hydrologic
patterns. If a short-term streamflow record contains a drought of sufficient intensity, as
documented by long-term rainfall records, the historical dataset may provide a reasonable
estimate of the long-term yield. The historical series is used to generate and subsequently