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Page 384
drag on for some years a contemptible existence as a commercial state'. Minorca seemed a small price for an
alliance which might save the country.1
Catherine refused the bait, for her real preoccupation was with the Ottoman Empire, and she could not afford
serious distractions in the west. Nor could the Austrians be tempted by an offer to re-open the Scheldt.2 The
mediation, however, proceeded, and the terms which were produced in May had much to attract England. France at
that moment was willing if necessary to sacrifice the Americans for the sake of peace: to accept a basis of uti
possidetis which would leave England in possession of South Carolina and Georgia, much of North Carolina, a
foothold in Virginia, the neighbourhood of New York, and a base in the Penobscot River which would enable her
to lay effective claim to most of Maine. But the very reasons which made Vergennes willing induced the British
Cabinet to reject the opportunity. The French finances were near the breaking point, their joint campaign with the
Spaniards had misfired in the West Indies, the Americans seemed to be near the end of their physical and moral
resources. The southern colonies were collapsing one by one before the British advance, and the French
commanders and Minister in America were in despair with the rebels. In February Franklin had passed on a
solemn warning from Washington that the situation demanded the most vigorous efforts or a peace. For many
months Vergennes had feared a separate peace between Spain and England: if the operations of 1781 did not bring
the success which had eluded the allies for four successive years, a settlement would be inevitable.3
Most of this was known to the British government. 'This war like the last will prove one of credit', the King had
recently said; and there was evidence, some of it in the captured papers of Henry Laurens, that the short purse of
France was nearly empty. Almost at the moment of the mediation, intelligence from France reported the dismissal
of Neckar for opposing further war expenditure, and the consequent fall on the French Exchange. 'The best men',
said the report, 'consider M. Neckar's retreat as a fatal stab to the credit of France, and to the independence of
America'. The hope of a French financial collapse was widely held. 'One lucky blow in the West Indies will give us
peace', General Murray wrote from Minorca, 'for I judge the enemy finds the expense of the war as intolerable as
we do.'4
1 Sandwich, IV, 236; Walpole, Last Journals, II, 442; G 32023, 3230, 3237, 32456; Knox, 272, 291; Bemis,
Diplomacy of the American Revolution, 1801; Malmesbury Corr., I, 299, 31521, 3236. See also Madariaga,
23942, 2845.
2 Madariaga, 287.
3 Bemis, Diplomacy of the American Revolution, 1817, and Hussey-Cumberland Mission, 11324.
4 Bemis, Hussey-Cumberland Mission, 111; G 3155, 3166, 3249, 3315, 3342, 3344, 3347, 3355, 3357; Knox,
176; Mahon, Murray, 392; Knox, Extra-Official State Papers, I. 27.
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