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Page 111
To later eyes it appears that in spite of his phrase 'effective men' Howe was not reckoning in effectives, a term
which included sick, prisoners of war, and detachments, but from a base figure of his 20,000 men who were
present and fit for duty. But the inducement to interpret the phrase literally was strong. Moreover Germain was
rightly incredulous of Congress's ability to raise anything approaching 50,000 men; and could they have done so,
he was confident that they would not stand up to Howe's splendid troops. He read Howe's despatch to the Cabinet
on 10 January, and it was agreed that 4,000 additional Germans should be taken into British pay, making a total
reinforcement including recruits of 7,800, which it was understood from the latest returns would give Howe 35,000
effectives. Germain therefore wrote to Howe on 14 January that he hoped these reinforcements would meet his
requirements. Not all of them would reach him at the outset of the campaign; but, Germain argued to Eden (though
here perhaps he was stretching the point), the mention of Russians and Hanoverians suggested that his need was
not pressing. In the event the Northern Department was to be disappointed of its full quota of additional Germans,
and only 1,285 were obtained; but by giving Howe priority over Canada, about 6,100 reinforcements were sent to
New York in the course of the summer, of which the bulk arrived in May and the balance of 1,700 recruits in
September.1
Comment on the details of Howe's operational plan was deferred till the end of the campaign was known. Howe's
next despatch was written on 20 December, but it limped in to Whitehall two months later on 23 February. Events
had moved rapidly in New Jersey, and instead of halting on the Raritan he had pushed forward across the whole
state to the Pennsylvania boundary on the Delaware. He was now within easy distance of the seat of Congress at
Philadelphia, and the rebellion seemed to be on the brink of complete disintegration. Here rather than in New
England he was now sure of finding the main army of the rebels. The inhabitants of New Jersey and Pennsylvania
were flocking in to collect their pardons. The apparent change in American sentiment persuaded Howe that the fall
of Philadelphia would be decisive, and that one short stroke would end the rebellion in the Middle Colonies. He
therefore proposed a change of plan to seize the opportunity. Instead of waiting for reinforcements to mount his
offensive against New England, he would exploit his success to the southward, and strike with 10,000 men at
Philadelphia. This would mean cutting his other commitments to the bone. The Rhode Island offensive towards
Boston would have to wait for fresh
1 The above reading of Howe's despatch and the reinforcement figures differs from those in most
authorities. For the despatch and its interpretation see Sackville, II, 4950, 567; CO 5/253, f. 256; Thynne
Papers, Cabinet Minute of 10 Jan. (précis in Dartmouth II, 432); Add. MSS. 34413, f. 2 (31 Jan. Germain to
Eden). For the reinforcements, see p. 118 below.
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