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Trusting therefore to Howe's assertion of the importance of Philadelphia, Germain agreed to his change of plan: he
only added the hope that Howe would really complete his operation in time to co-operate with the Canadian army.
Indeed the plan had reached London so late that Germain had no choice but to agree; and his answer, though
promptly given, did not reach Howe till the middle of August, when the dilatory expedition was already in the
Chesapeake. The responsibility was Howe's alone; and Howe had no reason to fear that the plan would hurt
Burgoyne. On 16 July, before he sailed for the south, he received a letter from Burgoyne himself, written before
Ticonderoga in high spirits and only lamenting that he had no latitude to reduce New England on his own. Howe
foresaw only one danger to the northern army: that Washington would leave Philadelphia to its fate and turn
against Burgoyne. To guard against this he resolved to make his own approach to Philadelphia by way of the
Delaware instead of the Chesapeake, in order to be in closer supporting distance of the Hudson. If Washington
marched north to attack Burgoyne, Howe thought Burgoyne was strong enough to check him; while if he merely
attempted to retard Burgoyne's advance on Albany he ran the risk of being caught between two British forces.
But if Washington stayed to defend Philadelphia, Howe could see none but administrative obstacles to Burgoyne's
advance. Scarcely anyone, least of all Burgoyne, seems to have realised the real nature of the danger, which lay in
the difficult country and the New England militia. Only that able and difficult officer Charles Stuart, the future
conqueror of Minorca, saw what might happen. He could scarcely believe, when the army embarked, that it was
not a feint; for if Howe's army went south instead of north, Burgoyne would have to fight his way unaided against
the most powerful, inveterate and populous of the colonies. 'I tremble for the consequences', he wrote.1
In England the slow unrolling of Howe's campaign was also watched with an eye to its effect on Burgoyne. But
Howe was no letter-writer; and when he did write he said little to reveal his intentions or explain the long delay in
embarking. In the middle of August Burgoyne was known to be on the move and about to invest Ticonderoga.
Howe had sallied out to look at Washington, and it was known by a private ship that he had then embarked; but
whether for Philadelphia or the Upper Hudson was a mystery. The summer was already far gone, and fears began
to be aired that he would leave Washington free to turn on Burgoyne. Robinson tried to reason himself and others
into believing that Howe would go northwards; but though North, Germain and the Adjutant-General agreed with
his logic, they still feared that the army had gone to Philadelphia. On 22 August there was still
1 Sackville, II, 667, 73; CO 5/94, ff. 269, 286; Fonblanque, 233; Wortley, 113.
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