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reduce our effort in America to a maritime war? If so, we must decide what bases to keep, how to hold them, and
what ships to employ. Should the Howes be recalled, and the naval command split into three separate blockading
stations? Above all, what were the political implications of such a war? It would end the quest for a decisive
victory and a dictated peace. The struggle would become one of attrition in which weariness might draw both sides
towards a compromise. The ground must be prepared for a new negotiation; and Eden suggested a clean sweep of
existing Acts of Parliament and a new Commission to investigate colonial grievances and devise a settlement. Such
a descent from the proud expectations of 1775 might discredit the Ministry, and particularly the American
Secretary. In the first black days after Saratoga, when Germain had confessed that he began to despair of victory if
the rebels continued united, he had declared in the House his opposition to a federal union, and said that if the
colonies could not be brought back to a state of constitutional obedience, he would prefer to break all political
connection with them. With this in mind, Eden suggested privately to North that the way might be cleared by the
removal of the unbending Secretary to the House of Lords.1
The King was pressing independently for a radical review of strategy. Like Germain he believed that the army
would have to be reduced to the defensive, and he urged North to consult Amherst and others who knew America.
Under this pressure North assembled the Cabinet, and matters began to move. Sandwich was asked by the Cabinet
to produce the naval view, while the King sought a military opinion from Amherst, who was interviewed first by
North, Suffolk and Sandwich, and then by the whole Cabinet. Sandwich and Amherst were found to be in
complete agreement: military reconquest must give place to maritime pressure. Sandwich, indeed, in the light of
French intentions, challenged the fundamental assumption that America was the vital theatre; a doubt which was to
permeate his thought from this time on. But if the colonies were still to be the main point of effort, he agreed with
Germain that we should rely on naval pressure. Hitherto the blockade had failed because Howe's ninety ships had
been absorbed in supporting the army's offensives, enabling the enemy to import and survive. A new directive
should now be sent to Lord Howe to concentrate his resources against the rebels' ports, including (Sandwich added
on Germain's suggestion) support for coastal attacks by the army.
Amherst regarded conquest as impossible without a reinforcement of thirty or forty thousand men; but even a sea-
war would need additional troops. England would need 33,000 men in America and Canada to secure the navy's
bases, and 12,000 more if Philadelphia was retained. Thus, surveying the ruins
1 Add. MSS. 34414, ff. 3948; Parl. Hist., XIX, 530.
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