Summary 41
shrinking. The uncertainties for smaller glaciers and ice caps are lower,
however, and suggest that melting of these ice masses may be responsible
for 15% to 25% of the sea-level rise. (In fact, Arendt et al.(2002) esti-
mate that in the late 1990s the mass loss from Alaskan glaciers alone was
−96 ± 35 km
3
a
−1
,which is more than the estimate in Table 3.2 for all
valley glaciers and ice caps.) Other contributions to sea level are thermal
expansion of the oceans (0.5 ±0.2 mm a
−1
), melting of permafrost (0.025
±0.025 mm a
−1
), sedimentation in the oceans (0.025 ±0.025 mm a
−1
),
and terrestrial storage in lakes and groundwater reservoirs (−0.35 ±
0.75 mm a
−1
).
Although the mass balance data for Greenland are ambiguous, yield-
ing a net balance of −44 ±53 Gt a
−1
, the pattern is suggestive. The obser-
vational data show that the ice sheet is growing thicker in the interior, at
least locally, as warmer air transports more moisture inland. However, it
is thinning along the margins where the increased temperature results in
more melting (Krabill et al., 2000; Thomas et al., 2000). As mentioned
earlier, this is precisely the pattern inferred from Greenland ice cores for
the end of the Younger Dryas (Alley et al., 1993).
Summary
In this chapter we discussed snow accumulation and the transformation
of snow to ice. We found that in polar environments where there is little
if any melting, the physical and chemical stratigraphy in an annual layer
of snow persists for many thousands of years and can be used to date
the ice.
We then defined some terms used to discuss mass balance, particu-
larly summer, winter, and net balance, and used a perturbation approach
to study the influence of winter balance, temperature, and radiation on
net balance. By comparing observed variations in these parameters with
calculated values, it became clear that the net balance of glaciers in con-
tinental environments was sensitive, primarily, to summer temperature,
while that of glaciers in maritime areas was sensitive to both winter bal-
ance and summer temperature. Radiation balance, principally resulting
from differences in cloud cover, could play a role in either environment.
The lower budget gradient, and consequently the more sluggish behavior
of polar glaciers compared with their temperate counterparts, turned out
to be largely related to the shorter melt season in polar environments.
On ice sheets, we also noted that accumulation decreases with distance
from the moisture source.
We then discussed the importance of calving and bottom melting in
mass balance, and discovered that on tidewater glaciers calving can lead
to retreats that are, at best, only weakly related to climate. On ice sheets,
calving turns out to be a dominant process of mass loss. Bottom melting