Effect of atmospheric circulation patterns 39
related to long-wave patterns over the North Pacific. Storms from smaller
disturbances do not penetrate that far inland (Yarnal, 1984).
ENSO and Decadal Oscillations
At a larger scale, we are beginning to find that patterns of the type
just described are linked to hemispheric and even global patterns. One
of the most important of these is the El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation, or
ENSO. Under “normal” conditions winds blow westward in the equato-
rial Pacific. This drives a westerly surface current in the ocean, resulting
in an increase in elevation of the sea surface in the western Pacific relative
to that off Peru. This surface current and the resulting super-elevation
propel an eastward return current at depth, leading to upwelling of cold
water off Peru. At intervals of between 2 and 6 or 7 years, the westerly air
flow weakens, the upwelling is damped, and the ocean and hence the air
off Peru become warmer. This is an El Ni˜no. The warmer air decreases
the pressure gradient between Peru and the western Pacific, thus further
weakening the westerly air flow. Consequently, a region of heavy rainfall
that is normally located in the western Pacific shifts eastward. This, in
turn, shifts the position of the jet stream, and hence weakens the Aleutian
Low, causing storms to enter North America hundreds of kilometers
south of their normal entry points (Rasmussen, 1984). Eventually, El
Ni˜no conditions weaken and normal or even slightly cooler than normal
(La Ni˜na) conditions return.
We do not know how El Ni˜nos are initiated, but the consequences
are far reaching, affecting not only glaciers along the northwest coast
but weather patterns around the Pacific, throughout North America, and
even globally. Even in Antarctica, accumulation was consistently higher
in parts of West Antarctica, and there is a hint that it was lower at the
South Pole, during El Ni˜no years (Kaspari et al., 2004). The pattern
in West Antarctica persisted during much of the twentieth century; a
low-pressure cell in the Admundsen Sea shifted clockwise during El
Ni˜no events, and this increased accumulation in the eastern part of West
Antarctica and decreased it in the western part (Cullather et al., 1996).
This pattern, however, appears to have broken down after 1990.
Although global in its effect, ENSO is generated by ocean–
atmosphere interactions that are internal to the tropical Pacific and over-
lying atmosphere (Houghton et al., 2001,p.454). Recently, we have
become aware of other similar oscillations in the atmosphere and ocean.
One is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. During the warm phase
of the PDO, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are
somewhat warmer than normal, while in the northwest Pacific, they are
significantly cooler. The PDO seems to have two dominant periodicities,