The budget gradient 29
To place the results of this calculation in perspective, at 3050 m
on Hintereisferner in the Austrian Alps, an elevation that is slightly
above the normal position of the equilibrium line, the mean winter snow
fall is 1620 kg m
−2
and its standard deviation is 540 kg m
−2
. Likewise,
the mean summer temperature is +0.4
◦
C, and its standard deviation is
0.8
◦
C. Comparing these standard deviations with the values of δb
w
and δT
a
in Table 3.1,itisclear that a 100 m change in the ELA could
result, with nearly equal likelihood, either from a change in b
w
or from
a change in T
a
. Similarly, the total radiation input is ∼46 MJ m
−2
d
−1
,
while the loss is ∼40 MJ m
−2
d
−1
, leaving a mean radiation balance,
R,of∼6MJm
−2
d
−1
. Changes of 1.35 MJ m
−2
d
−1
,owing to changes
in cloud cover for example, are small compared with the total radiation
budget, and thus are not unreasonable.
For comparison, the mean winter balance on Barnes Ice Cap on
Baffin Island is ∼400 kg m
−2
(Hooke et al., 1987). Here, a δb
w
of
−400 kg m
−2
is highly improbable, as this would mean virtually no
accumulation. Thus in this case, a 100 m change in the ELA would most
likely be a result of a change in T
a
.
This comparison illustrates a fundamental difference between
glaciers in relatively dry but cold areas, areas that we refer to as having
a continental climate, and glaciers in warmer wetter maritime climates.
Glaciers in continental settings owe their existence to low temperatures,
and fluctuations in their mass budgets are strongly (inversely) correlated
with mean summer temperature. Conversely, glaciers in maritime set-
tings form in response to high winter snow fall; on such glaciers, the
mass balance is less well correlated with T
a
alone, and correlations can
be improved significantly by adding winter precipitation to the regres-
sion. In fact, on some maritime glaciers the correlation of net balance
with b
w
alone is quite good (Walters and Meier, 1989,p.371).
In the above analysis, T
a
and R have been treated as independent
variables. This is not strictly correct because an increase in T
a
of 1
◦
C
increases R by about 0.3 MJ m
−2
d
−1
(Kuhn, 1981). This is a result of the
increase in “black body” radiation, which varies as T
4
. Incorporating
this effect into the above calculation (Table 3.1) reduces δT
a
to +0.7
◦
C.
The budget gradient
Recall that curve “o” in Figure 3.5a represents the distribution of b
n
in
ayear in which the mass budget is balanced. The slope of this curve
at the elevation of the equilibrium line in a year of balanced budget,
(
∂b
no
/∂z
)
h
o
,isknown as the budget gradient. High budget gradients
represent situations in which there is a lot of accumulation above the
equilibrium line and a lot of ablation below the equilibrium line, and