
13.1 DELAY P LOTS FROM T IME S ERIES
by solving the differential equations, the state v(t) moves continuously through
the state space as time progresses.
We can imagine a set of coupled differential equations that governs the
behavior of the Couette-Taylor experiment, but it is not easy to write them
down. The state space dimension k would be very large; perhaps thousands of
differential equations modeling the movement of fluid in small regions might
need to be tracked. This is called “modeling from first principles”. In contrast to
the complicated differential equations of motion, the behavior we see in Figure
13.1 is fairly simple. Periodic motion means that trajectories trace out a one-
dimensional curve of states through ⺢
k
.
Of course, the idea of a real experiment being “governed” by a set of
equations is a fiction. The Couette-Taylor experiment is composed of metal, glass,
fluid, an electric motor, and many other things, but not equations. Yet science has
been built largely on the success of mathematical models for real-world processes.
A set of differential equations, or a map, may model the process closely enough
to achieve useful goals.
Fundamental understanding of a scientific process can be achieved by build-
ing a dynamical model from first principles. In the case of Couette-Taylor, the basic
principles include the equations of fluid flow between concentric cylinders, which
are far from completely understood on a fundamental level. The best differential
equation approximation for a general fluid flow is afforded by the Navier-Stokes
equations, whose solutions are known only approximately. In fact, at present it
has not been proved that solutions exist for all time for Navier-Stokes.
Can we answer questions about the dynamics of the system without un-
derstanding all details of the first principles equations? Suppose we would like
to do time series prediction, for example. The problem is the following: Given
information about the time series of velocity at the present time t ⫽ 2, predict the
velocity at some time in the future, say 0.5 time units ahead. What information
about the present system configuration do we need? Formally speaking, we need
to know the state—by definition, that is the information needed to tell the system
what to do next. But we don’t even know the dimension of the state space, let
alone what the differential equations are and how to solve them. To do time
series prediction, we will use the method of analogues. That means we will try
to identify what state the system is in, look to the past for similar states, and see
what ensued at those times.
How do we identify the present state at t ⫽ 2? Knowing that S(2) ⫽ 800
is not quite enough information. According to the time series Figure 13.1(a),
the velocity is 800 at two separate times; once when the velocity is decreasing,
and once when it is increasing. If we look 0.5 time units into the future from
the times that S ⫽ 800, we will get two quite different answers. We need a way
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