9.4 Criterions for Model Choice 219
best model from so a large variety of models. However, if we apply an option pricing
model to a real trading environment, we will naturally raise some requirements and
expectations that a pricing model should satisfy. As a practitioner, I summarize the
following points for an applicable pricing model.
1. Analytical Tractability: Analytical tractability is the first of all requirements that
a pricing model should fulfill. A pricing model must admit an (semi-) analyti-
cal closed-form valuation for European-style options. It is not only used to value
European-style options quickly and accurately, but also, more importantly, al-
lows an efficient calibration of the model to market prices, in the most cases, the
volatility surfaces. Without a closed-form solution for options, any pricing model
does not have a chance to be applied in practice.
2. Fitting to Market Prices: A good model shall and can be fitted consistently to
market quoted prices. Since most liquid plain-vanilla options are valued by the
Black-Scholes (-like) models and quoted with implied volatilities, fitting to mar-
ket prices is in most cases equivalent to fitting to volatility smile. From the point
of view of practitioner, there are two aspects for fitting. Firstly, a model should
be calibrated efficiently and accurately to whole smile surface, instead to a smile
at one maturity only. This requires that a model can recover not only the long-
term smile pattern, but also the short-term smile patten. Secondly, a good model
should be flexible enough to capture different smile pattern, namely, symmetric,
down-sloping and even up-sloping smile. Table (9.4) gives the market FX volatil-
ities of USD/EUR, GBP/EUR and JPY/EUR, as of February 10. 2009. We can
easily observe that FX volatility surface of each foreign exchange rate presents
different smile pattern: While the volatility smile surface of USD/EUR is nearly
symmetric, the smiles (sneers) of GBP/EUR and JPY/EUR slope up and down
respectively. In these cases, the models that can only generate the decreasing or
increasing skewness, can not recover all FX option markets. According to my
experience, stochastic volatility models are the only model class that can deal
with all three smile patterns firmly.
3. Hedging Performance: Hedging performance is an other important criterion to
test a pricing model. Any pricing model delivers Delta and Gamma, but not
necessarily provides Vega since volatility risk is replaced by other risks of pa-
rameters capturing volatility smile. For example, the variance-gamma model ex-
presses volatility risk via the parameters
μ
,
σ
,
β
. Whether a pricing model pro-
vides a better and more robust hedge performance than the Black-Scholes model,
is an issue of statistical testing and practical application. Usually, we may use out-
of-sample or in-the-sample empirical testings for check hedging performance.
However, there is a consensus that a good hedging performance is conditional on
a good fitting to smile surface.
4. Convenient Simulation: Good fitting to market is the minimal requirement for
an applicable model, and a perfect recovery of smile is not our initial goal. The
most sophisticated models are used to value and hedge exotic derivatives and
structures in accordance with volatility smile. However, the advanced models
generally do not admit the analytical solutions for most exotic options. As a
result, Monte-Carlo simulation is most time the only way to value exotic options.