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FLOOD MANAGEMENT
CLIMATE CHANGE
Although flood defence is a familiar
problem in the UK climate change
will make the issue far more important.
New and expanded solutions w ill be
needed, as Karl Hall reports
Although flood defence is a familiar
problem in the UK, climate change
will make the issue far more important.
New and expanded solutions w ill be
needed, as Karl Hall reports
Hydro power Chinese style
UK gets defensive
on flooding
UK gets defensive
on flooding
Turbine developments in Cuba
Turbine developments in Cuba
I N T E R N A T I O N A L
& DAM CONSTRUCTION
WWW.CON NECTI NGPOW ER.CO M
JANUA RY 20 03
Hydro power Chinese style
Water Power
The number one subscription journal for the dams and hydro power industry
FLOOD MANAGEMENT
CLIMATE CHANGE
The pathways for flooding are generally by river (fluvial) flood-
ing, coastal, high groundwater levels and snowmelt. Sometimes there
can be a combination of factors, for instance in coastal areas where
ahigh tide combined with high fluvial flows and storm surge creates
anunusually high water level, causing problems at both the tidal
and inter-tidal zones.
What makes matters worse for the UK (although as we have seen
from the summer floods in Europe, the problem is a global one) is
the large amount of urban development carried out in flood plain
areas. Current estimates place up to five million people at risk from
river and coastal flooding, with 10,000km
2
of land at risk from river
flooding. Rising sea levels will only worsen the scenario, as many of
the world’s major cities lie in coastal areas. London is an interest-
ing example, and although it is considered quite well defended at
the moment, the future situation may be rather different.
Models have been formulated and estimates for future increased
dimensions of the Thames assume there is a risk of inundation of
parts of Hammersmith and the Victoria Embankment, Greenwich
Peninsula and large areas of the lower Thames valley, in all some
125 km2. Other cities at risk from rising sea levels include Cardiff,
Swansea,Bristol, Grimsby and Hull. At the moment there are no
models that will definitively predict future effects from rising sea
levels, but it has been estimated that average global sea levels could
rise by between 10cm and 20cm by the year 2100.
For the UK, the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change has
predicteda 30cm rise over the next 50 years. As a result, defence
heights will have to be raised to the tune of up to 6mm per year. The
effects will not be constant and some areas of the UK will see more
dramatic effects than others. In Scotland, for instance, sea levels have
risen at Aberdeen by 70mm since 1900 an d many parts of the
Scottish coast are now at risk from coastal flooding, particularly
below the 5m contour. In Scotland alone 93,000 properties are at
risk from coastal flooding, and 77,000 from inland flooding.
Some countries are now considering an alternative approach to
flood management. Initiatives such as the Rhine Action Plan adopt,
in principle, alternative strategies that in clude widening existing
flood plains in conjunction with conveyance methodologies.
Factors affecting the UK include:
•Climate change and increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns.
•Extensive coastline to all sides.
•Increased run-off from land due to agricultural practices and
increasing urbanisation.
•Long tidal rivers (Humber/Trent, Severn etc).
•Downward land tilt to some areas.
•Inadequate or poorly maintained existing drainage.
•Under-investment in flood protection schemes.
•Large catchment areas into some rivers.
•Difficulty in analysing the probability of severe weather events.
Accepting that there is little that can be done to reduce the future
risk of flooding (although the Rio Earth Summit and Kyoto Protocol
were intended to mitigate the worsening climate situation by reduc-
tions in greenhouse gas emissions), then a sustainable flood man-
agement strategy can at least reduce its effects. Such a strategy may
include a combination of factors: reducing building on flood plains;
installing additional flood defence measures; reforesting upland
areas; and allowing wider flood plains.
Implementing effective, integrated flood defence schemes requires
aconsidered approach, taking into account the long term effective-
ness of planned measures with regard to capital cost, disruption to
amenities and townscapes, downstream effects and maintenance. A
factor that is bound to compromise future flood management is the
inexorable rise in demand for housing. Much of this demand is cen-
tred on land that lies in flood plains near to existing major centres
of population and industry. Unfortunately, some of the ‘brown’
(industrial) land that the Government is insisting be re-used is also
within flood plains, immediately creating a conflict in those areas.
It is however still early days and new planning guidance (designat-
ed PPG25 and currently being developed) may help balance the
needs of developers and land users.
An effective flood protection scheme must consider factors includ-
ing: the morphology of local rivers; the likely effectiveness of engi-
neered flood defences; the downstrea m effects from the
implementation of engineered defences; and the socio-economic ben-
efits that would be derived from such defences.
At present, significant amounts of public money are spent each
year in simply maintaining ex isting defences, but many of these
defences are either nearing the end of their effective lives or will be
inadequate to cater for more severe floods in future. The UK’s
National Audit Office estimates that up to 40% of existing hard-
engineered defences are in fair, poor or very poor condition (those
classified as ‘very poor’ may be considered as derelict or failed, these
representing 165 km of defences).
Although the government has already pledged additional capital
resources for flood defence, under the Comprehensive Spending
Review, additional investment is needed to stop long-term decline
of the defences.
For coastal areas, a separate strategy may be appropriate, and
shoreline management plans assess the balance of factors in terms
of producing ‘sustainable policies for the coastal defence of our
shorelines taking into account natural coastal processes and issues
relating to the environment and human needs’. Coastal effects can
be difficult to model, because alluvial morphodynamics have no real
‘equilibrium’ state – what is put into effect today may be less effec-
tive in future years as natural processes take effect. There is no better
illustration of this than the east coast, where loss of land is a con-
tinuous process and flooding a regular event.
Intervention can have unpredictable results. Providing hard-engi-
neered defences to one part of the coast can lead to the denuding of
sedimentat adjacent coastal areas, requiring additional defences.
Current government thinking tends towards a less-interventionist
approach, allowing natural processes to take their course (‘managed
realignment’), although this is not likely to impress the population
in these vulnerable areas unless the government introduces appro-
priate compensation.
There is understandably a good deal of consternation in the public
domain that can only be allayed by appropriate action from gov-
ernment, but it is encouraging to observe that the issues are now seen
as requiring a committed long-term strategy. Whatever the effects of
weather and climate turn out to be in the next hundred years, the
formulating and instigation of effective flood defence schemes will
require major political will, planning and investment, based on an
holistic approach.
Bauer Inner City Limited, Bauer House,
Woodrow Way, Fairhills Industrial Estate, Irlam,
Manchester M44 6ZQ, UK
IWP
&
DC
Above left: Continuous perimeter Bauer-IBS Flood Defence System protecting
European town. Right: Bauer-IBS system in full perimeter protection to town
physical degradation of arable land, with increased run off from
dried-out encrusted areas or saturated land. There may also be inde-
terminable natural factors at work which are influencing climate
change and climatic ‘surprises’ such as changes in ocean currents,
which could promote further unpredictability.
Assumptions about future climate patterns are, however, a complex
matter, and the UK has undertaken much research in this area. The
result is a range of predictive climatological models developed by the
Meteorological Office’s Hadley Centre under the auspices of the
UKCIP. These assume a range of effects, based on various levels of
greenhouse gas emissions, but whichever yardsticks are taken (low,
medium low, medium-high or high, where medium-high, for instance,
assumes a 1% per annum increase in CO
2
emissions), the outlook is
not favourable, and wetter winters and drier summers are predicted.
There is additionally the problem of predictive confidence, and whilst
global mean temperatures and CO
2
levels are considered relatively pre-
dictable, factors such as climatic and regional variability are less so.
The difference between low and high predictions is very wide – it
could be as much as 20% – so there is an imperative for more accu-
rate research and modelling. The problem in accurate forecasting
stems from the fact that a majority of existing data is based on his-
toric records and it is widely accepted that this is well out of date.
Interpolations derived from existing data are therefore inappropri-
ate, as this would assume that the probability of a given rainfall event
can be calculated and preventive actions can be taken. From this
methodology, we would find that the only resolution is to design
schemes to a probability of the worst case occurring approaching
zero, which would result in substantially over-engineered designs.
FLOOD MANAGEMENT
CLIMATE CHANGE
NEW FORM
F
LOODING is not a new problem for the UK, and being a nat-
ural occurrence it will always be with us. But it is currently
the frequency and severity of significant flood events that are
focusing attention on the issue, together with the real concern
that future climate patterns will worsen the outlook.
Inland flooding is generally the result of high rates of run-off from
land, occasioned by intense local rainfall or by longer-term heavy
rain. Most people in the UK remember the 2 000 floods as being
notably bad: it was the wettest autumn since records began and
resulted in wide-scale inundation as defences were overtopped or
breached, and drainage systems overwhelmed. Around 10,000 prop-
erties were flooded. These floods were in some areas 1 in 200 year
events (flood levels that would normally be considered as having a
0.5% chance of occurring), but the frequency of 100 or 200 year
events is now increasing. Unfortunately, the historic nature of urban
development has biased it towards rivers so many cities are now at
considerable risk of regular and damaging flooding.
Hard-engineered (and therefore expensive) solutions appear to be
the only options for alleviation, at least in the short term. This phi-
losophy follows on from most previous thinking, which endeav-
oured to channel high-velocity flood water and discharge it to the
sea in the shortest time. Although the thinking is understandable,
this method of flood management has actually mad e some areas
more vulnerable to severe flooding at little warning.
Research suggests that by the 2080s, winter rainfall may increase
by up to 30%, with potential for greater incidence of flooding. At
the same time, summer rainfall could decrease by up to 50%, par-
ticularly in the south. As the world climate becomes warmer, greater
levels of evaporation in summer months may be translated into
increasedrainfall and perhaps also at times later in the year than
was previously expected. There are additional factors involved, in a
sometimes complex combination of events that include large-scale
in a
Aboveleft: View of full height Bauer-IBS Flood Defence System; Above middle:
Bauer-IBS Flood Defence System providing perimeter town defence; Above right:
Compositetown defence with dwarf wall and Bauer-IBS Flood Defence System
Please call Scott Galvin to get your quotation today
on +44 (0) 20 8269 7820
or email sgalvin@progressivemediagroup.com
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