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totally clear whether the spreading out of the infection
response at lower multiplicities is due to a slow down
in the infection cycle or simply a spreading out of the
initial infection process. Conceptionally, the observa-
tion of Licari & Bailey makes sense. If more viral
material is available initially, the infection should be
faster at least with respect to viral genome replication.
Assuming Licari & Bailey’s hypothesis is correct, a
need arises to know not only when cells have been
infected but also with how many virions the cells have
been infected.
Licari & Bailey first considered the initial infection
situation where a monolayer of cells is overlayed for
1 hour with a medium containing virions. By direct
analogy to a haemocytometer, they observed that –
given infinite contacting time – the number of virions
infecting an individual cell would be described by a
Poisson distribution with mean equal the multiplici-
ty of infection (MOI), i.e. the ratio of the number of
virions to the number cells. In reality, the contacting
time of 1 hour is too short for all virions to be distrib-
uted on the monolayer of cells and when the inoculum
medium is withdrawn negligible depletion of virus was
observed. To account for this, Licari & Bailey intro-
duced a proportionality factor, , accounting for what
they termed the physical system. Hence, the number of
virions infecting an individual cell was described by a
Poisson distribution with mean -MOI.
Based on the above consideration, Licari & Bailey
continued to propose that at any time in this system
the probability of NV virions infecting a cell, P(NV,t),
would be Poisson distributed:
This is obviously wrong. The situation now considered
has changed from one of infections occurring over a
period of time (the contacting time) to that of instan-
taneous infection. The contacting time is obviously an
extremely important factor in determining , the frac-
tion of virions bound. The situation of instantaneous
infection may be described by a Poisson process with
a rate of occurrence given by
Only when sampled for a period of time, h, does the
Poisson distribution arise. The difference is impor-
tant. A probability for one or more infections to occur
can not be assigned for the instant; it can only be
assigned for a period of time. If assigned to the instant
repeating the assignment for the following couple of
“instants” would see all virus distributed within a cou-
ple of “instants”, that is instantaneously.
It would appear, that Licari & Bailey applied Equa-
tion (13) to the discrete interval arising when solving
the full model numerically and thus indirectly intro-
duced a contacting time. According to their paper,
they used a step size of 1 hour, which would corre-
spond to the initial contacting time used to determine
α
. Although, it is theoretically correct to consider mul-
tiple infection in discrete time intervals, it is not clear
what biological significance an arbitrarily chosen dis-
cretisation into one hour intervals has. The questions
arise of how long after the initial infection of a cell
does further infections affect the infection behaviour
and to what degree.
Another question is whether the physical system
really is the same. The reason for the small fraction
binding in the initial 1 hour contacting time in a static
culture is likely to be that the diffusivity of virus is low
and much virus will never reach the cells. In secondary
infection, virus is released from the monolayer and the
path to proximate cells is shorter and the binding rate
could be higher.
Finally, the assumption that only non-infected cells
can bind virus does not agree with the observation
made above, that cells continue to bind virions at least
6–8 hours (and possible as long as 15–20 hours) after
initial infection.
De Gooijer model
De Gooijer’s model considered three modes of infec-
tion and thus it was necessary to consider the multi-
plicity of infection and the relative distribution of the
three different types of NOV. Using a similar approach
as Licari & Bailey, it was assumed that infection would
occur within one time step and that infected cells would
not bind further virus. In the well-mixed suspension
culture, it was assumed that limitation in binding was
due to a limited number of binding sites. All the avail-
able virus would spread over 30–40 active binding sites
with equal affinity for all three types of NOV. The prob-
ability of each type of infection was calculated for each
time interval given the concentration of the different
NOV types.
The number of binding sites is a fitted constant
which is much less than the measured value of ~3100
(Granados, 1994). This fitted constant is a composite
constant indicating not only how many viruses bind,