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CHAPTER 6. STRUCTURED REASONING
b) if K; is any set, R a 3-place relation on P(~), and R satisfies Gp, is there then
/2 and a probability measure
Pu
: 5~ --+ [0, 1] and a bijection f : K~ --~/2 such
that <
A IB [ C >R +-+ < f[A] ] f[B] l f[C ]
>pu?
We shall henceforth assume X to be finite, and E = W(X). P on E will also be
said to be on X, and also called a probability variable. P is called strictly positive
iif
P(A)
= 0 ~ A = (~. For x E X, we shall also write P(x) for P({x}). Moreover,
the notation P : X -+ [0, 1] is justified, as E is fixed by X, and P(Y) for Y C_C_ X
is determined by the values on the singletons - as any Y C_ X is countable, even
finite, and by b. above.
Fact 6.47 Let Xi : i < n (n < co) be finite sets, P~ :
X; -+
[0, 1] probability
measures, then there is a (unique) probability measure P : [I{Xi : i < n} --+ [0, 1]
on the product defined by P(a0...x~-l):= P(< z0...x~-I >) :=
Po(xo) *... *
Conversely, if a probability measure P : II{Xi : i < n} --~ [0, 1] is given, m C__ n,
m = {j,...jk}, then P~(xj~ ...zjk ) := 2{P(xjl
...zj~x~l...z~,): z~ < X~,i,.
n - m} (suitably reordered) defines a probability measure on 11{& : j Em}.
We shall abuse notation by writing P for P~ too - the context will disambiguate.
In particular, for P :
XzY -~
[0, 1],
x E X, y E Y, P(z I Y)
will mean
pyre) =
PI~,~) P(~,_l
P({<xt,y>:xtEX-~ = ~{P(xt,y):xtEX}
Definition 6.48 Let X, Y etc. be variables.
a) Expressions like
P(X I Y) = P(X I Y, Z)
are to be understood as universally
quantified, i.e. Vx E
fiX, y C 1-IY, z E UZ.P(x l Y) = P(x l Y, z).
b) By P[X] we mean {<
:c',P(x)
>: z E IIX}, likewise
P[X I Y]
:= {<
x,y,P(x ]
y) >: x r
IIX, y
E UY}, etc.
c) Likewise, for X = {X~...X~} a set of variables,
P[X]
is to be read
PiXy,...,
X~] etc.
In Section 6.2.2, various independence relations are discussed (this is material
fl'om Chapter 3 of [Pea88]): in Section 6.2.2.1 those defined from probability
measures, in Section 6.2.2.2 independence defined by undirected graphs, and in
Section 6.2.2.3 independence as given by directed acyclic graphs (causal net-
works). In Section 6.2.3 we go into the details of computing probability functions
in directed acyclic graphs: The task is - essentially - to compute a probability
measure on the product of the vertices from tocal conditional probabilities be-
tween parents and children in the graph, using the independence relations given
by the graph. (The prerequisites and the result are made precise before Lemma
6.63 and in Corollary 6.64.) More precisely, we are interested in computing the
conditional probability
P(x I e),
where z is a value on some node X, and e is a set
of values on a set of nodes E. In the rest of Section 6.2.3, we reconstruct Pearl's
method (Chapter 4 in [Pea88]) of computing
P(x
I e) in singly connected directed
acyclic graphs by local computations and message passing. The situation is made
precise before Definition 6.65, and the results are summarized following Lemma
6.71.