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what “confirmation” amounts to. It was in coming to this juncture in his
critique of Positivism that Karl Popper, an Austro-English philosopher of
science, in his Logik der Forschung (1935; The Logic of Scientific Discovery,
1959), insisted that the meaning criterion should be abandoned and replaced
by a criterion of demarcation between empirical (scientific) and transempirical
(nonscientific, metaphysical) questions and answers – a criterion that,
according to Popper, is to be testability, or, in his own version, falsifiability;
i.e., refutability. Popper was impressed by how easy it is to supposedly verify
all sorts of assertions – those of psychoanalytic theories seemed to him to be
abhorrent examples. But the decisive feature, as Popper saw it, should be
whether it is in principle conceivable that evidence could be cited that would
refute (or disconfirm) a given law, hypothesis, or theory. Theories are (often)
bold conjectures. It is true that scientists should be encouraged in their
construction of theories – no matter how far they deviate from the tradition; it
is also true, however, that all such conjectures should be subjected to the most
severe and searching criticism and experimental scrutiny of their truth claims.
The growth of knowledge thus proceeds through the elimination of error; i.e.,
through the refutation of hypotheses that are either logically inconsistent or
entail empirically refuted consequences.
Despite valuable suggestions in Popper’s philosophy of science, the
Logical Positivists and Empiricists continued to reformulate their criteria of
factual meaningfulness. The Positivist Hans Reichenbach, who emigrated
from Germany to California, proposed, in his Experience and Prediction
(1938), a probabilistic conception. If hypotheses, generalizations, and theories
can be made more or less probable by whatever evidence is available, he
argued, then they are factually meaningful. In another version of
meaningfulness, first adumbrated by Schlick (under the influence of