Renewable Energy World - magazine

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PHOTOVOLTAICS: ITALY'S INCENTIVE OVERHAUL

RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY–JUNE 2011 27

Temposonics

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outputs. All beneﬁts are available on stroke lengths up to 20 m.

target might be treated as a cap, with eligibility for FiTs cut off beyond

that. Amid the explosive pace of development in 2010 it became

clear that the 8 GW PV goal for 2020 was far closer than thought –

and might be reached with only another 50 to 100 MW in 2011.

But in early March Italy’s Council of Ministers met and approved

a new Legislative Decree that rejected an 8 GW cap. It conrmed

that existing FiTs would be available to all plants connected to the

grid by 30 May 2011. A new Ministerial Decree is now awaited from

the Ministry of Economic Development, conrming the details of the

Legislative Decree and reviewing FiT rates. Under law, it has to be

announced and adopted no later than 30 April.

It seems certain that new

eld-based systems will now

be limited to 1 MW

Due to land-use concerns, it seems

certain that eld-based systems will once

again be limited to 1 MW in size. And when

more than one plant is built on land with the

same owner, they must be at least 2 km apart

– presumably to avoid multimegawatt plants

being built up of ‘separate’ 1 MW units.

(Plants that were already under construction,

or had applied for permits before 1 January

this year are exempted.)

Reuters recently reported that Stefano

Saglia, Industry Ministry undersecretary, told

reporters in early April that the decree will

outline a transitional period up to the end of

2011, with new rules – based on Germany’s

support scheme – that would come into

effect from 2012.

The ‘German’ basis seems likely to

include an automatic reduction in tariffs as

and when predetermined levels are reached.

Italy plans to put a six-monthly or annual cap

on solar incentive costs rather than power

output, and aims to scrap PV incentives from

2017, according to another wires report.

Varying regional FiTs may also be introduced.

GIFI, Italy’s largest solar industry

association, said in April that a German-style

model with regular rate cuts would make a

total of 20 GW of PV by 2016 quite feasible

for Italy. Germany’s 2020 target for PV is

51.7 GW, for example.

Italy’s generous feed-in tariffs, maintained

despite falling technology prices, will hit its

consumers heavily over the next 20 years.

Italians could have got more for their money.

But this doesn’t mean that the rug should

now be pulled from under the solar industry.

With module prices continuing to fall, while

natural gas prices still trend upwards, Italian

solar must now be nearing grid parity. It

would be irresponsible to take apart the

industry that has been built up, rather than to support it to reach

that point and travel well beyond. Certainly there is plenty of scope

to review the 8 GW 2020 target and set it a lot higher.

Jackie Jones is consulting editor to Renewable Energy World

magazine

e-mail: rew@pennwell.com

This article is available on-line. To comment on it or forward it to

a colleague, visit: www.RenewableEnergyWorld.com

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RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY–JUNE 2011 29

WORLD WIND

ENERGY OUTLOOK

WORLD WIND ENERGY OUTLOOK

Worldwide installed wind capacity reached

more than 196 GW in 2010, of which more

than 37 GW was added that year alone.

Equal to 2.5% of the global electricity supply,

growth wind installation has nonetheless

slowed. Stefan Gsänger reveals all in this

snap shot of the industry.

DOWN BUT NOT OUT

With a growth rate of just 23.6%, 2010 recorded

the second lowest increase in the past decade.

VESTAS

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WORLD WIND ENERGY OUTLOOK

30 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY–JUNE 2011

n 2010 the total global installed wind capacity reached some

196,630 MW showing sustained growth on 2009’s 159,050 MW,

2008’s 120,903 MW, and 2007’s 93,930 MW.

Despite this impressive increase, investment in new turbines in

fact saw a decline in many parts of the world. For the rst time in

more than two decades the turbine market fell against the previous

year to 37,642 MW in 2010, down from 2009’s 38,312 MW.

Global turnover for the sector reached €40 billion (US$55 billion)

in 2010, down 20% on the €50 billion ($70 billion) in 2009. This

decrease was largely due to lower prices for wind turbines.

China accounted for more than half of the world wind energy

market in 2010. If China were excluded, the offshore sector would in

fact have shrunk by one third from 24,512 MW to just 18,714 MW.

Still, installed wind capacity has more than doubled every third year,

a trend which continues even in the face of the downturn.

Last year a total of 83 countries, one more than in 2009, used

wind for electricity generation and 52 countries increased their total

installed capacity, up from the 49 in the previous year.

Offshore wind capacity continued to grow in 2010 and was

apparent in 12 countries, 10 of which were in Europe. Japan and

China were the other two. The total global installed offshore wind

capacity reached 3117.6 MW, of which 1161.7 MW was added in

2010, representing a growth rate of 59%. Offshore wind capacity, in

terms of the global wind sector, saw its share increase from 1.2%

in 2009 to 1.6% in 2010. In terms of new installations, offshore

capacity accounted for 3.1% during the year.

The UK accounted for more than half of the global offshore

market in 2010, installing 653 MW. Offshore represents 26% of

the country’s total wind capacity and 59% of that added in 2010.

Denmark ranked as the number two offshore with 854 MW installed,

representing 22.9% of its total wind capacity. Offshore turbines

accounted for 62% of new capacity in Denmark in 2010.

Another major market for offshore wind was Belgium which

added 165 MW, representing 49% of its wind market.

ORLDWIDE STAGNATION

This decrease in new capacity outside of China can be associated

a lack of insufcient political support for wind energy utilisation.

Paradoxically, more and more policymakers are declaring their

support for increased use of wind energy, but such statements do

not necessarily go hand-in-hand with the required political decisions.

While 2009 had seen two major milestones – the rst North

American feed-in law in Ontario and the introduction of the rst feed-

in tariff in Africa – 2010 failed to deliver comparable breakthrough

decisions in either national or international policies.

In the US especially, there remains major regulatory uncertainty

and a lack of focus on renewable energy.

In many developing countries there are huge policy

gaps and not yet enough stability and reliability in market

frameworks, as well a lack of nancial resources. In addition, the

necessary international frameworks for renewable energy have yet

to be established.

With a growth rate of just 23.6%, 2010 recorded the second

lowest increase in the past decade. Prior to 2010 this gure had

been increasing year-on-year since 2004, peaking in 2009 at 31.7%.

By country, the largest growth rate for 2010 was in Romania,

which increased its capacity by 40 times to 591 MW. Bulgaria also

scored a growth rate in excess of 100%, closing the year at 112%.

In 2009, four major wind markets more than doubled their installed

wind capacity: China, Mexico, Turkey, and Morocco, while in 2010

only two markets reported above 100% growth.

Next to China, strong growth was mainly concentrated in east

and southeast European countries including Romania, Bulgaria,

Turkey, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, Croatia, Cyprus, and Belgium.

Africa, with the exception of Egypt and Morocco, and Latin

America, excluding Brazil, again lagged behind the rest of the world

in their commercial use of wind power.

With 653 MW, the UK accounted for more

than half the global offshore market in 2010

TOP WIND MARKETS IN 2010

In 2010, the Chinese wind market came into its own, representing

more than half of the world market for new wind turbines, adding

18.9 GW and scoring a market share of 50.3%. Meanwhile there

was a sharp decrease in new capacity in the US – where its share

in new wind turbines fell to 14.9% (5.6 GW) in 2010 – from 25.9%,

or 9.9 GW, in 2009. Nine further countries saw turbine sales ranging

500–1500 MW: Germany, Spain, India, the UK, France, Italy,

Canada, Sweden, and Romania.

Twelve other countries purchased 100–500 MW of new turbines

in 2010: Turkey, Poland, Portugal, Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, Japan,

Bulgaria, Greece, Egypt, Ireland, and Mexico.

By continent, the most dynamic progress of the wind industry

took place in Asia, and the focus of the global wind sector moved

further away from Europe and North America. Asia became the new

continental leader, accounting for 54.6% of the newly installed wind

turbines compared with 40.4% in 2009 and 31.5% in 2008.

Five years ago Europe dominated the world market for new wind

turbines with 70.7% of the market. It fell back to third position in

2009 but in 2010, it was resurgent in second position, accounting

for 27% of the new installed turbines, again ahead of North America

whose share dropped from 28.4% in 2009 to 16.7% in 2010.

Europe now accounts for less than half of the total global capacity

and over the past few years its share has steadily fallen from 65.5%

in 2006 to 43.7% in 2010.

Latin American countries were responsible for 1% in 2010, 1.5%

in 2009, and 0.6% in 2008.

Africa

Wind turbines installed in Africa by the end of 2010 had a total

capacity of 906 MW, out of which 155 MW were added in three

countries, Egypt, Morocco and South Africa. Although the African

continent was already on a comparatively low level, the 2010 growth

rate of 20% was again below the global average of 23.6%.

Northern African countries are leading the way on installed

capacity with Egypt’s 550 MW and Morocco’s 286 MW. Together

with Tunisia’s 54 MW the region represents the lion’s share of African

wind capacity.

Following the introduction of feed-in tariffs, South Africa with its

current capacity of 10 MW has the potential to become the wind

leader in southern Africa, with an existing development pipeline of

700 MW of new wind projects expected to be installed by 2013.

Egypt aims to install more than 7 GW of wind power by 2020, while

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32 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY–JUNE 2011

Morocco with its Sahara Wind project has ambitious long-term wind

plans in the range of several gigawatts.

In general, new political support schemes will be necessary

to support the nancing of wind farms in Africa, especially in sub-

Saharan Africa. A special consideration should be given to small-

scale and hybrid systems for rural electrication. For this purpose,

the establishment of a global fund for renewable energy investment

would offer huge opportunities for many African countries to bypass

one of the major barriers to wide-scale wind energy deployment.

Asia

Asia became the focal point of the wind industry worldwide in 2010,

mainly thanks to China, but also due to robust development in India.

Total installed wind capacity in Asia reached 61.2 GW (31.1% of

global capacity) in 2010 and the continent had the highest growth

rate of all world regions at 50.6%, but down from 63.3% in 2009

when it added 20.6 GW.

After four consecutive years during which China doubled its

installations, the country still showed impressive growth of 73.3%

and became number one in terms of new installations and total

capacity to reach 44.7 GW by the year end.

However, China still faces major challenges

with grid connection issues. According to the

China Electricity Council, only 31,070 MW were

actually feeding electricity into the national grid,

while a large number of wind farms are still

awaiting grid connections.

In parallel with the role of China as the

dominant market, its wind industry is becoming

more competitive and has dramatically

increased its share of global sales. The country’s

largest manufacturer, Sinovel, is now the world

leader with a market share of almost 12%.

In 2010 India remained the second largest

Asian market with a 10.7% growth rate, for a

total capacity of 13 GW. Three medium-size

Asian markets also showed healthy growth

rates: Japan (total capacity 2.3 GW, up on

2.1 GW in 2009), Taiwan (519 MW up on 2009’s

436 MW) and South Korea (379 MW following

the 364 MW of 2009).

Meanwhile, Vietnam installed a major

project, tripling capacity from 9 MW to 31 MW.

Australia and Oceania

In 2010, the region appeared to stagnate,

adding only 11.8 MW, following the 555 MW

developed in 2009, to reach a total capacity

of 2386 MW. However, a total of more than

1 GW is currently under construction in Australia

alone, while New Zealand is expected to install

more than 100 MW in 2011. New dynamics can

also be expected for the development of wind

energy utilisation from the Mount Barker and

Hepburn wind farms, which represent the rst

community-owned wind farms in Australia and

are due to start operations in 2011.

Europe

For the moment Europe remains the leading global region in terms

of installed wind capacity with a total of 86 GW, but this lead is

faltering. In 2010 it added 9970 MW, down from the 10,474 MW

installed the previous year.

Germany – with 27,215 MW of installed capacity, saw a 1551 MW

increase in 2010, down from 2009’s 1880 MW total, while Spain

– with a total of 20,676 MW, clocked up a 1527 MW increase in

2010, but down against 2009’s 2460 MW. Yet the two remain the

continent’s largest markets showing modest growth rates of 5.6%

and 8%, respectively.

In spite of the stagnation in 2010, prospects

in Europe are generally good, considering

ambitious targets of many EU countries.

European markets showing robust growth of around 20% in

2010 included Italy, France and the UK, adding 950 MW, 1086 MW,

and 1112 MW, respectively. Some of the most dynamic, although

small, wind markets can be found in eastern Europe, for example,

Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Poland and Hungary.

In spite of the need to reinforce policies the

appetite for investment in wind power is strong.

LM GLASSFIBRE

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34 RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD MAY–JUNE 2011

Switzerland, Belgium, Turkey and Cyprus – with 82 MW in 2010,

up from zero – showed promising growth rates during the year.

The Danish, German and Spanish wind turbine manufacturing

industries were still playing a leading role in many wind markets

around the world. However, competitors especially from Asia (China,

India, and Korea as well as Japan) have been able to increase both

their domestic and international market shares.

In spite of the stagnation in 2010, prospects for Europe’s wind

industry remain positive, considering the ambitious targets of many

countries. For example, in Germany wind is expected to account

for 20%–25% of electricity generation by 2020, while Spain expects

38 GW by then, including 370 MW of small wind and 3 GW offshore.

Another important trend has begun in Germany where the

repowering of older turbines is playing an increasing role. In 2010,

183 MW of capacity was replaced by more modern machines and

this market is expected to grow substantially in the future.

The Americas

In 2010 Latin America stayed far below the growth it experienced

in 2009, adding only 467 MW, to reach a total capacity of

1983 MW. Nonetheless, the growth rate of 30.8% was well above

the worldwide average, although far below the 113% seen in the

previous year. Still, the continent accounted for only 1.2 % of globally

added wind capacity.

Only six Latin American countries installed new wind turbines in

2010: Brazil (320 MW); Mexico (104.5 MW); Argentina (25.3 MW);

Uruguay (10 MW); Cuba (4.5 MW); and Chile (2.6 MW).

With the exception of Brazil and Mexico, most Latin American

wind markets can still be regarded as nascent. That said, major

wind farms are expected to start operating in 2011 especially in

Mexico (800 MW) as well as in Brazil, but also in countries such as

the Dominican Republic.

In 2010, North America lost its position as the second

most dynamic world region with its growth rate slumping

from 39% in 2009 to 16% in 2010, mainly due a sharp

drop in the US which added only 5.6 GW in 2010, down from 9.9

GW in 2009. The country’s leading state, Texas, with a total capacity

of 10 GW would rank number six if assessed in global terms.

By the end of 2010, 5 GW of wind farms were

under construction. In 2011, various forecasts

suggest a new capacity of up to 10 GW.

Canada saw a stable market and increased its

capacity by 21%, adding 690 MW, to reach a total

of 4008 MW. In Canada, several provinces (Ontario,

Prince Edward Island) have introduced or are about

to introduce feed-in tariffs (British Columbia, New

Brunswick). It is important to note that several of

these provinces have become pioneers in the

support of community-based wind farms.

A critical weakness of the North American

markets lies in the lack of manufacturing capacities,

with a major share of the wind turbines and related

equipment. There are only few domestic wind turbine

manufacturers in the US as well as in Canada.

ND’S SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

The total global installed wind capacity at the end

of 2010 could potentially contribute 430 TWh annually, representing

2.5% of total global demand.

In some countries and regions wind has become one of the

largest electricity sources. For instance in terms of wind share,

Denmark is the world leader with 21%, Portugal follows with 18%,

Spain at 16%, and Germany with 9%. In China, wind contributed

1.2% to overall electricity supply, while in the US, wind’s share

reached about 2%.

In 2015 a global capacity of 600 GW

is possible, by the end of 2020 at least

1500 GW can be expected globally

By the end of 2010 about 670,000 people were employed

worldwide, both directly and indirectly, in the various branches of

the wind sector. Within ve years, the number of jobs has almost

tripled, from 235,000 in 2005.

In spite of the need to reinforce national and international policies

and to accelerate the deployment of wind power, the appetite for

investment in wind power is strong and there are many projects in

the pipeline. Further substantial growth can especially be expected

in China, India, Europe and North America.

High growth rates can also be expected in several Latin American

as well as new Asian and Eastern European markets. In the mid-

term, also some of the African countries will see major investment,

after all in northern Africa and eastern Europe.

Based on the current growth rates, WWEA has revised its

expectations for the future growth of the global wind capacity. In

2015, a global capacity of 600 GW is possible. By the end of year

2020, at least 1500 GW can be expected to be installed globally.

Stefan Gsänger is secretary general of the World Wind Energy

Association (WWEA).

e-mail: sg@wwindea.org

This article is available on-line. To comment on it or forward it

to a colleague, visit: www.RenewableEnergyWorld.com

1998

29.2

31.7

41.7

34.8

28.2

26.0

21.3

23.6

31.7

28.7

26.7

25.6

23.8

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Global growth rates (%) for wind installations 1998–2010

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Renewable Energy World - magazine - 5/6-2011

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