The sampling basis
167
The third step is to give up this search, and to concentrate on comparing
the compositions of different assemblages. The assumption needed for such
comparisons to yield useful information about life assemblages is that the
relativities between life-spans of different types remain constant between
different but comparable assemblages. In concrete terms, if
in
one situation a
storage jar lasts for ten times as long as a drinking vessel, then in another
comparable situation this ratio should be preserved, although the life-spans
may
differ.
It is not necessary to know, or even estimate, the actual life-spans.
If even this minimal assumption cannot be made, then any
difference
between
life assemblages will be confounded with changing relativities in life-spans,
and while we would be able to observe differences, we would not know to
which source to attribute them. In which case, there would be little point in
studying pottery quantitatively at all, and much established methodology (for
example seriation, spatial analysis) would be without foundation. To avoid
despair, we accept this minimal assumption and proceed with courage,
looking first at the theoretical ideal and then at what may be practical in
particular circumstances.
The sampling basis
We are now in a position to treat our assemblages as samples from some
parent populations, about which we wish to make
inferences.
The traditional
statistical approach would be to talk about sampling fractions (the propor-
tion of the population that is present in the sample) or, looked at another
way, the probability that any particular member of a population is selected
for a sample. This we cannot do, because we have no idea of the original size
of the population. Further, it would not be an adequate description of the
sampling process, because it does not take into account the fact that the pots
are generally found broken and incomplete. To take account of this, we
introduce the idea of the completeness of a pot in an assemblage (Orton
1985a; the term completeness index
is
also used, see
Schiffer
1987,282) - this is
just the proportion of the original pot actually present in an assemblage (we
shall look later at how we might measure it). For example, a particular pot
might be 50 per cent complete in one assemblage and at the same time
10
per
cent complete in another; if the assemblages are combined, the pot becomes
60 per cent complete in the new assemblage. We can now describe the
sampling process in terms of the pattern of the distribution of the com-
pleteness; for example by saying that 10 per cent of the pots are between 10
per cent and 20 per cent complete, 5 per cent are between 20 per cent and 30
per cent complete, and so on. What we cannot do is to say how many are 0 per
cent complete, that is do not appear in the assemblage at all. I spent some
years trying to establish the shape of the pattern by computer simulation of
the breakage, disposal and retrieval of pots (Orton 1982a), only to find much
later that I did not need to know it. At about the same time, it was suggested