seen as a door opener for further expansion of exploration and production of oil
and gas in the area in line with worldwide oil dependency and for the economic,
geopolitical and developmental interests of the main Arctic states, in spite of the
vulnerability of the area.
The presence of hydrocarbons in the Arctic has already caused large-scale
developments in the Arctic, such as: in the Alpine and Prudhoe Bay at the North
Slope, Alaska; in the North West territories, Nunavut and Nunavik in Canada; at
Melkøya in the Northern Norway; and in the Yamalo-Nenets and Khantyt-Mansii
Autonomous Okrugs in Russia. The fact that there are few signals of a decline in
either the demand for oil and gas, or for security of the energy supply has become
one of the top political issues in the European Union (EU), the United States (US)
and other nations in recent years, creating an expectation of a further expansion
of oil and gas activities worldwide.
For many years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has systematically over-
estimated how much new oil will come out on the market outside the Organization
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
3
Most oil reserves are found in
only a few countries, but estimates of their size vary widely. The most available
and economical oil and gas fields in the world are already exploited. The main
future oil and gas fields are situated in remote areas with vulnerable environments,
where the costs of exploration and production are high, or within politically unstable
countries. In contrast to the other areas, most Arctic countries are politically stable,
but from a developmental perspective, there is uncertainty surrounding the
requirements of technology that is currently (2008) undeveloped or untested.
The US geological survey (USGS) world petroleum assesment 2000 estimates,
that approximately 25 per cent of the undiscovered petroleum reserves are in the
Arctic, makes Arctic oil and gas an important economic and geopolitical issue.
Map 1.1 shows assessed Arctic oil and gas provinces and potential Arctic oil and
gas provinces. The yellow areas constitute the areas where USGS estimates that as
much as 25 per cent of the world’s remaining undiscovered conventional oil and gas
fields may be found. The areas marked in blue are some other potential Arctic areas.
In addition to the four countries with operating fields today, Alaska/US, Canada,
Norway, Russia, Greenland/Denmark may also have huge oil and gas reserves.
Figure 1.1 presents the volume of the undiscovered resources in the
Arctic presented by the USGS 2000 assessment.
4
The total estimate for the world
is 268 billion Sm
3
o.e., or 1690 billion barrels o.e. of the 70 billion Sm
3
that is
stipulated to be in the Arctic. The major reserves seem to be in Western Siberia
on land, North Slope of Alaska offshore and East Greenland offshore. There has
been no exploration in East Greenland: only a few seismic lines have been
acquired, basically due to year-round sea-ice cover. Explorations conducted in
West Greenland for several years have made no exploitable discoveries. The
USGS estimates for the Lofoten area in Norway, which is equivalent to the
Norwegian Sea area, are considerably higher than the Norwegian Petroleum
Directorate’s estimate.
This shows that there is considerable uncertainty regarding how big the Arctic
reserves are, which the USGS has also confirmed. In fact, the estimate included
2 Aslaug Mikkelsen and Oluf Langhelle