Kissinger Henry. White House Years

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oneisnotpreparedtoacceptthelikelyresponse.)Theirreply,toSiscoin

WashingtonandBeaminMoscow,tookustotaskontheU‐2flights,whichwere

describedasa“newcomplicatingelement”;intheSovietviewtheycontradicted

thetermsofthecease‐fire,violatedEgyptiansovereignty,involved“extremely

seriouscomplications,”andalsoran“theriskofspecialsurprise.”Iinformedthe

President,pointing outthattheSovietsprobablyhadeveryreasontobe

concernedaboutverificatio nofthecease‐fireinimpartialhands.Itwouldbe

easierfortheSovietsandNassertorejectchargesofviolationsiftheywerebased

onlyonIsraelisurveillance.



ByAugust29theheadoftheStateDepartment’ sBureauofIntelligenceand

Research,RayCline,hadconcludedthatinsteadofoneSA‐2sitewithinthethirty‐

kilometerzone,aboutwhichwehadprotestedthepreviousweek,therewere

nowsevenoreight,aswellasthreeorfourSA‐3sites.Mostofthesesitesinhis

judgmentwerealmostcertainlybuiltafterthecease‐firewentintoeffect.On

August31aCIAassessmentconfirmedtheseconclusions.



AmeetingofthePresidentandhissenioradvisers—Rogers,Moorer,Laird,

Helms,andme—wasnowunavoidable,andittookplaceonSeptember1inSan

Clemente.ThePresidentdirectedthataverystrongprotestbemadeinboth

CairoandMoscow,andthatIsraelbeaskedtosenda representativetothe

JarringtalksinNewYork.OnSeptember3theStateDepartmentpublicly

confirmedtheviolations,thistimelessambiguouslybutstillwithconsiderable

restraint,andindicatedthatwewoulddealwiththematteronlyindiplomatic

channels;concurre ntly,StatekepturgingthattheJarringtalksbegin.



BothEgyptandtheSovietUnioncontinuedtorejectourprotests.Cairo

deniedthechargesonSeptember4,intheprocesschallengingourcontinued

militarysupplytoIsraelasinconsistentwithallegedassurancesofrestraint.On

September6,DeputyForeignMinisterSergeiVinogradovtoldBeamthatthe

SovietUnionhadconcludednocease‐fireagreementwiththeUnitedStatesand

wasthereforenotresponsibleforanyviolations.Vinogradovnotedthe“strange

arrangement“wherebytheUnitedStateswassupervisingthecease‐firewithout

anyrequestfromEgyptandviolatingEgyptianterritorybyoverflyingtheSinai.

Aboutthesametime,theSovietchargedeliveredamessageinWashington

expressingconcernoveranallegedlyimpendingIsraelipreemptiveattackonthe

missilesites.TheSovietsaskedustotakestepstopreventthis.Wehadnosuch

evidence.IthoughtitwaspartoftheperennialSovietefforttoputusonthe

defensive.ItoldSiscotopassthewarningtotheIsraelis withoutcomment,but

nottoconfirmtotheSovietsthathehaddoneso.Therewasnosenseinletting

themscoreeasypointsinCairoasprotectoroftheArabs.

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

IsraelBowsoutofNegotiations



fterallthedisputesandviolationsitwasnosurprisethatonSeptember6,

Israelannouncedthatitcouldnotparticipate inthesettlementtalksunder

Jarring.OnSeptember6,moreover,Palestinianguerrillashijackedthreeairplanes.

Whathadstartedasasteptowardpeaceamonthearlierwasprecipitatinga

confrontation.ItendedtosharetheviewofthechiefSovietexpertonmystaff,

HalSonnenfeldt,thenandlateraninvaluablecollaborator,whoinSeptember

sentmeananalysisdrawingananalogytotheCubanmissilecrisis:



…mydeepconcern[is]thatinthepresentMiddleEasternsituationwemayhave

(unwittingly)misledtheSovietstobelievethatcheatingontheceasefirewasamatterof

indifferencetousandthatwemayhavetherebycontributedtoapotentiallymuchdeeper

crisis…Thenature,timingandspeedofourcease‐fireinitiative,therelativeloosenessofits

terms,theinformalityofitsconsummation,ourreluctancetoconcedeviolationsandourother

statementsandactionsafterviolationsbegancouldhaveledtheSovietstoconcludethatall

thatreallymatteredtouswasaceasefireinapre‐electionperiodinwhichwepreferrednotto

confronttheawkwardchoicesofcontinuedopenwarfare…Theycouldthushavebeen

surprisedbyoursubsequentapparentlyrealindignationatwhatwashappening(having

meanwhilegiventheUARandthemselvesthegreenlighttoproceedwithviolationsandthus

puttheirprestigeontheline).Ortheymayevenyetbelievethatwearemerelyplay‐acting.



Atthesametime,theMiddleEastexpertonmystaff,HalSaunders,

informedmethatSovietandEgyptianviolationshadactuallyacceleratedafter

ourprotestsofearlySeptember.Saunders,anothersuperbanalystandfair‐

mindedadviser,wasnotknownforananti‐Arabbias.Yethewrotemethat,

accordingtoU‐2pho tographytakenafterourearlySeptemberdemarchesin

MoscowandCairo:



…itseemsclearthattheEgyptiansarecontinuingSAMactivityinviolationofthe

militarystandstillprovisionoftheceasefireagreement.Theyhavemadenomovetorestoreor

rectifythesituationonthe24siteswehaveprotested…Wehaveseenatleasta50percent

increaseinthenumberofoccupiedSAMsitessinceAugust10…Activityisnotlevellingoff…The

defensivemissilecomplexalongtheCanalwouldseemtomeanmoretotheEgyptiansthanthe

peacetalkssincetheIsraelishavemadeitveryclearthattheycannotgoonwiththetalksuntil

thepre‐ceasefiresituationisrestored….



Eventhen,somediehardanalystsweredeterminedtorestorethepeace

initiativebymakingthefactsfittheirpreferences.AninventiveDefense

DepartmentexpertcameupwiththeextraordinarytheorythatperhapsNasser

hadnotviolatedthestandstillafterall.Itcouldnotbeexcluded,itwasargued,

thatthemissileshadbeenhiddeninthefifty‐kilometerzonebeforethecease‐fire

wentintoeffectandhadbeensurfacedonlyafterward.Hence,theyhadnotbeen

“introduced”intothezone;thestandstillremainedpristine.Thissophisticated

reasoningdidnotexplainwhytheEgyptianswouldhidemissileswhentheir

deploymentwaspermittedandsurfacethemonlywhentheirdeploymentwas

proscribed.Norwasitpossibletofindthroughaerialphotographyshedsor

warehouseslargeenoughtohousesomuchmateriel,whiletohideitinthesa nd

wouldhaverequireda holethesizeofthepyramids. 



TherewassimplynoavoidingthefactthatbythemiddleofSeptemberour

initiativeshadreachedanimpasse.Inthebargain,wehadfulfilledtheIsraeliarms

requestheldinabeyancesinceMarch.Weendedupincreasingit,notsomuchto

winIsrael’sflexibilityinpeacenegotiationsastowardoffanIsraelipreemptive

attackagainsttheadvanceoftheEgyptianmissileswehadnotbeenabletostop;

wegainednocreditforitinIsraelandwemagnifiedthedispleasureoftheArabs.

TheSovietshadestablishedacombatpresenceinEgyptthatalreadythreatened

IsraelandwouldbeusefullaterincollusionwithNasseragainstanymoderate

Arabgovernment.Ouractionsdidnotdominateevents;theyfollowedthem,and

oftenseemedtobeoverwhelmedbythem.Andthegreatestdangerresidedin

theapparentSovietmisperceptionsofourfirmness.



Almostinevitably,furthercrisesdescendedontheAdministrationin

September.WewerefacedsimultaneouslywithacivilwarinJordan,aSoviet

attempttobuildasubmarinebaseinCuba,andthecomingtopowerofAllendein

Chile.Itwasatoncethemostdangerousanddecisiveperiodofthenew

Administration—farmoreperilousthantheCambodianincursion,forallthe

hysteriaandmediaattentionthatreceived.Onlyafterwehadbravedthatstorm

wouldthevariouscomponentsofourglobaldiplomacy, solaboriouslyassembled

overayearandahalf,begintofallintoplace.



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

XV



TheAutumnofCrises:Jordan



ithinathree‐weekperiodinSeptember1970threemajorcrises

descendedupontheAdministrationincornersoftheworldthousands

ofmilesapart.



Theycouldnothavebeenmo redifferent.Onewasacivilwarinadesert

kingdom—Jordan—betweentheroyalgovernmentandarmedguerrillasseeking

tosecureabasetoattackaneighboringcountry;thesecondwasthesudden

SovietattempttocreateanuclearsubmarinebaseinCienfuegos,Cuba,with

prospectsofdirectsuperpowerconfrontation;thethirdwasanelectionina

majorcountryofSouthAmerica—Chile—whichriskedatakeoverbyradicalsallied

withCommunists.Thecausesoftheseeventswerefundamentallydifferent,as

weretheconcernstheyraisedforAmericanpolicy.Andyettheyallrepresented—

orseemedtoustorepresent—differentfacetsofaglobalCommunistchallenge.

NonecouldhavesucceededwithoutCommunistimpetusorencouragement.The

SovietmilitarythrustintoEgyptanditsincitementofradicalArabsspawnedthe

crisisinJordan;thenavalbaseinCubawasadirectSovietchallenge;andChile’s

election,forallitsambiguity,presentedthepossibilitythatanationwouldjoin

theCommunistfamilybydemocraticprocessesforthefirsttimeinhistory.



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

CrisisinJordan



hroughouthistoryboundaries intheMiddleEasthavemovedwiththeshifting

sands.TheArabnation,gloriousinitspoliticalconstructionsduringthefive

hundredyearsafterthebirthofIslamina.d.622,founditself,foralmostaslonga

periodafterward,underthedominationofvariousforeignrulers.Nationhood

becameatonceamysticalconceptandanearlypropheticvision,adream

T

inspiringferventbelieversandheroicactionsbutseldomrealized.Thelastof

theseforeignempires,theOttoman,wasexpelledfromtheregionasaresultof

WorldWarI.Butitwasnotsucceeded,assomanyArabnationalistshadhoped,

byoneunifiedstate.Rather,foranothergenerationtheMiddleEastwasdivided

intosemi‐independentstatesunderthetutelageofEuropeanpowers.Eachof

thesecountriesstruggledforindependence;theyallachievedfullsovereigntyin

theaftermathofWorldWarII.



OneofthesestateswastheHashemiteKingdomofJordan.Called

Transjordanbefore1949,ithadcomeaboutafterWorldWarI,whentheLeague

ofNationsgaveBritaina MandatetogovernPalestine,whichthenincludedallthe

territoryfromIraqtotheMediterranean.In1921,Britainsplitofffromits

MandatewhatwasthenatracklessdeserttocreateakingdomforitsHashemite

allieswhohadbeendisappointedintheirhopesforotherrealms.Inthis 

unpromisingsettingtalentedrulersandanindustriouspeoplebuilttheJordanian

state,whichhasbeensinceitsbirthanelementofrestraint,progress,and

stabilityintheMiddleEast.ThepartitionofPalestinedrewtheHashemite

KingdomontotheWestBankoftheJordanRiver.Thereitgovernedwithits

characteristicenlightenmentuntil,fromanexcessofArabsolidarity,itinvolved

itselfinNasser’srecklessgambleof1967.Asaresult ,itlostthepopulousand

fertileWestBanktoIsraelioccupation.



Fedayeenguerrillas—PalestinianrefugeesfromthemanyAra b‐Israeli

wars—establishedthemselvesinJordan,especiallyafter1967,inwell‐organized

basecampsfromwhichtolaunchraidsintoIsraelandIsraeli ‐heldterritory.In

addition,17,000Iraqitroops,representingthemostradicalofArabregimes,

remainedencampedinEasternJordan,leftoverfromthe1967war.KingHussein

couldnotremoveeithergroupfromhiscountrywithoutbeingchallengedforhis

lackof“Arabsolidarity.”Thepresenceoftheseradicalarmedforcesboth

demonstratedtheascendancyofArabradicalismintheageofNasserand

perpetuatedtheweaknessofHussein’sauthority.Norwerethefedayeenand

Iraqisreluctanttowieldtheirpowerheavy‐handedly.TheguerrillasraidedIsrael

regardlessoftherisksthisposedforJordan;theIraqisconductedmilitary

maneuversonJordanianterritory.



TheJordanianarmy,descendantofthelegendaryArabLegiontrainedby

theBritishGeneralSirJohnGlubb(GlubbPasha)inthe1940s,wascomposed

largelyofBedouinfiercelyloyaltoKing Hussein.Butin1970itfounditself

engagedontwofronts;protectingtheKingagainstthefedayeen(andIraqis)and

safeguardingJordanianterritoryagainstIsraelireprisalsafterfedayeenraids.

Jordanlearned(asdidLebanonsixyearslater)thatcountriesthatharbor

guerrillasrunenormousrisks.Theyareinconstantdangeroflosingcontrolover

theirdestiniesbecauseothersdeterminethequestionofwarandpeace forthem.

Indeed,iftheguerrillasgrowsufficientlypowerful,theysoonerorlaterseekto

replacetheauthorityofthehostgovernment.



Bythesummerof1970theyoung,able,andcourageousKingwasingrave

peril.Theguerrillas,resentfulofhiseffortstopromoteapoliticalsettlementwith

Israel,increasinglychallengedhisarmy.OnJune9anattemptwasmadeto

assassinatehim.Husseindismissedsomeofhisarmyleadersandassumed

personalcommand.ButhewasreluctanttotakeonthePalestinians,whomhe

hadruleduntil1967andhopedtoreunitewithhiskingdom.Conditionsin

Ammandeteriorated.OnJune11IreportedtoNixonthatintheviewofour

chargéd’affaires(ournewAmbassador,DeanBrown,notyethavingarrived),“the

situationhasfallenapart.”OurEmbassyinAmmanwasgivenauthorityto

evacuatedependentsandnonessentialpersonnel(aboutfourhundredpeople,if

alldecidedtoleave) . 



ThatsamedayIcalledameetingoftheWSAG,ourinteragencymechanism

forcrisismanagem ent.Wefacedtwomajorcontingencies:first,evacuationof

Americans,ifnecessarybymilitarymeans;andsecond,ourresponseifKing

Husseinappealedforassistancetomaintainhisauthorityagainsteitherthe

fedayeenoroutsideinterventionfromIraqorSyria,bothgovernedbyleaders

evenmoreextremeandpro‐SovietthanNasser.



AttheWSAG,opinionsvariedwidelyastothewisdom,andindeedthe

feasibility,ofAmericanmilitaryaction.IftheJordanianarmyshouldlosecontrol

overtheairports,evacuationofAmericansmightrequirethelandingoftroops,a

prospectthatfilledneitherpoliticalnormilitaryleaderswithgreatenthusiasm.

Theproblem,andthereluctance,wouldbeevengreatershouldtheKingaskfor

Americaninterventiontoensurehiscontinuedrule.Therewassomehesitation

eventoplanforsuchcontingencies.TheCambodianoperationhadnotyetended,

ourforceswerestretchedthinaroundtheworld,andthepicketssurroundingthe

WhiteHousetestifiedtoourdomesticdisunity.MilitaryactioninJordanwasalso

technicallydifficultbecauseinthemorethantenyearssinceour1958landingin

Lebanonwehadlosteitherthestagingareasavailablethen(inLibya,Greece,and

Turkey)ortherighttousethemforMidEastconflicts.Reluctancetothinkof

Americanmilitaryinterventionwasreinforcedbytheconvictionofmanythat

evenifsuccessfulitwoulddiscreditHusseinintherestoftheArabworldand

perhapsbehispoliticaldeathsentence.



IfeltabiastowardsupportingHusseinifatallpossible.JustasIhadsought

tothwartNasseraslongashereliedsoheavilyonhisSovietconnectionand

supportedallradicalmovements,soitnowseemedtomeimportantto

demonstratethatfriendshipwiththeUnitedStateshaditsbenefits.Husseinhad

alwaysadvocatedmoderation,resistedtheradicaltide,andavoidedfashionable

anti‐Westernslogans.Hewasindifficultybecauseofhisreluctancetopermitthe

guerrillasfreerein.HiscollapsewouldradicalizetheentireMiddleEast.Israel

wouldnotacquiesceintheestablishmentofguerrillabasesallalongitsJordanian

frontier.AnotherMiddleEastwarwouldbeextremelylikely.Thus,Jordan,inmy

view,wasatestofourcapacitytocontroleventsintheregion.Nixonsharedthis

perception.AtaJune17NSCmeetinghesaid:



LetussupposelateinthesummerwegetarequestfromLebanonorJordanfor

assistance,orsomethinghappensinLebanon.Whatcanwedo?…Therecomesatimewhenthe

USisgoingtobetestedastoitscredibilityinthearea.Therealquestionwillbe,willweact?

Ouractionhastobeconsideredinthatlight.Wemustbeready…Isthequestionreallya

militaryoneorisitourcredibilityasapowerinthatarea?



OnJune22IreassembledtheWSAGtousethePresident’sexpressedwish

togetsomeplanningfinallyaccomplished.Bythattime,theimmediatedanger

havingeased,thedepartmentswerereadytoplanforcontingenciesthattheydid

notthinkwouldarise.EventhoughtheevacuationoftheAmericancitizenswas

proceeding,Husseinhademergedfromthecrisisgravelyweakened.Areportto

thePresidentdraftedbyHalSaundersofmystaffinearlyJulyaboundedwith

ominousphrases:“TheauthorityandprestigeoftheHashemiteregimewill

continuetodecline.TheinternationalcredibilityofJordanwillbefurther

compromised…Greaterfedayeenfreedomofactionwillinevitablyre sultinmore

seriousbreachesofthecease‐fireintheJordanValley….Husseinfacesan

uncertainpoliticalfuture.…”



ThetimeoftestingoverJordanthereforeseemedimminent.Our

contingencyplanning—howeverhalfheartedlyundertaken—stoodusingood

steadwhenearlyinSeptemberthetinderburstintoflameandalmostturnedinto 

ageneralMiddleEastconflagration.



<<Contents>>



****



Iraqi‐JordanianShowdown



nanyadministrationeventsoccurthatarenotforeseenbyintelligence;indeed,

theyareprobablyunforeseeablebecausetheyalsosurprisethevictimwhohad

thegreatestinterestinpreventingthem.Thedisturbanceoftheequilibriummay

beginasarelativelyminorevent;itsever‐wideningripplesturnitintoacrisisthat

eitherragesoutofcontrolorissuesintothatsuddencalmindicatingthatanew

equilibriumhasbeenachieved.Duringtheperiodofcrisistheelementsfrom

whichpolicyisshapedsuddenlybecomefluid.Intheresultingupheavalthe

statesmanmustactunderconstantpressure.Paradoxically,thisconfersan

unusualcapacityforcreativeaction;everythingsuddenlydependsontheability

todominateandimposecoherenceonconfusedandseeminglyrandom

occurrences.Ideallythisshouldoccurwithouttheuseofforce;however,

sometimesonecanavoidtheuseofforceonlybythreateningit.



Somemayvisualizecrisismanagementasafrenziedaffairinwhichkey

policymakersconvergeontheWhiteHouseintheirlimousines,whenharassed

officialsarebombardedbynervousaides rushinginandoutwiththelatestflash

cables.Oddlyenough,Ihavefoundthisnottobeaccurate;periodsofcrisis,tobe

sure,involvegreattensionbuttheyarealsocharacterizedbyastrange

tranquillity.Allthepettyday‐to‐daydetailsarestrippedaway;theyareeither

ignored,postponed,orhandledbysubordinates.Personalityclashesarereduced;

toomuchisusuallyatstakefornormaljealousiestooperate.Inacrisisonlythe

strongeststriveforresponsibility;therestareintimidatedbytheknowledgethat

failurewilldemandascapegoat.Manyhidebehindaconsensusthattheywillbe

reluctanttoshape;othersconcentrateonregisteringobjectionsthatwillprovide

alibisaftertheevent.Thefewpreparedtograpplewithcircumstancesareusually

undisturbedintheeyeofahurricane.Allaroundthemthereiscommotion;they

themselvesoperateinsolitudeandagreatstillnessthatyields,astheresolution

nears,toexhaustion,exhilaration,ordespair.



TheeventinJordanthattriggeredallforcesoccurredonSeptember1when

PalestinianguerrillassoughtforasecondtimeinthreemonthstoassassinateKing

Hussein,attackinghismotorcade.Fightingimmediatelybrokeoutbetweenthe

loyalarmyandthefedayeen.TheIraqisthreatenedtousetheirtroopsstationed

inJordanto“takeallnecessarymeasurestoprotectfedayeenaction.”Thenight

before,theKinghadalreadyinformedourEmbassyofficialsthathemightbe

forcedtotakemoredrasticsteps.TheKingexpressedthehopethathecould

countonUSsupport.Hethought astrongpublicstatementbytheUnitedStates

mightdiscourageoutsideintervention;evenbetterwouldbea jointstatement

withtheSovietUnion.



TheStateDepartment’sresponsetothismessagewashardlyelectric.

Concernedwithpreservingitspeaceinitiative,reluctanttoaddJordantoaplate

alreadyoverflowingwithcease‐fire violationsinEgypt,theresponsibleofficials

didnot(tomyknowledge)immediatelyraisethemattertotheWhiteHouseor

eventheinteragencylevel.Instead,anamazinglynoncommittalreplywas

dispatchedthenextday,informingtheKingthatpublicwarningsbytheUnited

Stateshadmanyimplications whichhadtobecarefullyweighed—atruismthat

wouldnothaveconveyedexcessivesuccortothebeleagueredHussein.One

reasonfortheinitialaloofnesswastheconventionalwisdomoftheMiddleEast

expertsthatArabsweresoexcitablethatanypublicwarningwaslikelytodrive

themintofrenzy.Thisjudgment,inmyview,confusesvolubilitywitherratic

behavior;incrisesIfoundmostArableaderstobecircumspectandcalculating.



LaterinthedayonSeptember1,Iraqissuedanotherultimatumwarning

thatifJordanianshellingofthefedayeendidnotceaseby11:00p.m.theIraqi

armywouldtakestepstostopit.ZaidRifai,closeadvisertotheKing(andaformer

studentofmineatHarvard),informedourEmbassyandrenewedtheKing’s

requestforabig‐powerstatement.HealsoinquiredwhetherweknewwhatIsrael

woulddoifIraqmoved.



Thelatterwasaquestionofgraveimport.ItwasimprobablethatIsrael

wouldpermitIraq,themostradicalArabstate,tomoveitsforcesclosertoher

borders;norindeedwasitlikelythatIsrael’sarmywouldbeinactivewhile