The Logic of Experimental Design
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Regression to the Mean. Statistical regression occurs when individuals are
selected for a study because their scores on some measure were extreme—
either extremely high or extremely low. If we were studying students who
scored in the top 10% on the SAT and we retested them on the SAT, then we
would expect them to do well again. Not all students, however, would score
as well as they did originally because of statistical regression, often referred
to as regression to the mean—a threat to internal validity in which extreme
scores, upon retesting, tend to be less extreme, moving toward the mean. In
other words, some of the students did well the first time due to chance or
luck. What is going to happen when they take the test a second time? They
will not be as lucky, and their scores will regress toward the mean.
Regression to the mean occurs in many situations other than research
studies. Many people think that a hex is associated with being on the cover
of Sports Illustrated and that an athlete’s performance will decline after
appearing on the cover. This can be explained by regression to the mean.
Athletes most likely appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated after a very suc-
cessful season or at the peak of their careers. What is most likely to happen
after athletes have been performing exceptionally well over a period of time?
They are likely to regress toward the mean and perform in a more average
manner (Cozby, 2001). In a research study, having an equivalent control
group of participants with extreme scores will indicate whether changes in
the dependent measure are due to regression to the mean or to the effects of
the independent variable.
Instrumentation. An instrumentation effect occurs when the measur-
ing device is faulty. Problems of consistency in measuring the dependent
variable are most likely to occur when the measuring instrument is a human
observer. The observer may become better at taking measures during the
course of the study, or may become fatigued with taking measures. If the
measures taken during the study are not taken consistently, then any change
in the dependent variable may be due to these measurement changes and
not to the independent variable. Once again, having a control group of
equivalent participants will help to identify this confound.
Mortality or Attrition. Most research studies encounter a certain amount
of mortality or attrition (dropout). Most of the time, the attrition is equal
across experimental and control groups. It is of concern to researchers,
however, when attrition is not equal across the groups. Assume that we
begin a study with two equivalent groups of participants. If more partici-
pants leave one group than the other, then the two groups of participants
are most likely no longer equivalent, meaning that comparisons cannot
be made between the groups. Why might we have differential attrition
between the groups? Imagine we are conducting a study to test the effects
of a program aimed at reducing smoking. We randomly select a group of
smokers and then randomly assign half to the control group and half to the
experimental group. The experimental group participates in our program
to reduce smoking, but the heaviest smokers just cannot take the demands
of the program and quit the program. When we take a posttest measure
regression to the mean
A threat to internal validity in
which extreme scores, upon re-
testing, tend to be less extreme,
moving toward the mean.
regression to the mean
A threat to internal validity in
which extreme scores, upon re-
testing, tend to be less extreme,
moving toward the mean.
instrumentation effect
A threat to internal validity in
which changes in the dependent
variable may be due to changes
in the measuring device.
instrumentation effect
A threat to internal validity in
which changes in the dependent
variable may be due to changes
in the measuring device.
mortality (attrition)
A threat to internal validity in
which differential dropout rates
may be obser
ved in the ex-
perimental and control groups,
leading to inequality between
the groups.
mortality (attrition)
A threat to internal validity in
which differential dropout rates
may be observed in the ex-
perimental and control groups,
leading to inequality between
the groups.
10017_08_ch8_p202-224.indd 209 2/1/08 1:26:47 PM