ptg6843605
Theta Model − Theta Model
Page 357 The Encyclopedia of Operations Management
the setup cost for a bottleneck resource is the opportunity cost of the lost gross margin and that the opportunity
cost for a non-bottleneck resource is nearly zero.
The “constraint” is the bottleneck, which is any resource that has capacity less than the market demand.
Alternatively, the constraint can be defined as the process that has the lowest average processing rate for
producing end products. The constraint (the bottleneck) is normally defined in terms of a resource, such as a
machine, process, or person. However, the TOC definition of a constraint can also include tools, people,
facilities, policies, culture, beliefs, and strategies. For example, this author observed that the binding constraint
in a business school in Moscow in 1989 was the mindset of the dean (rector) who could not think beyond the
limits of Soviet Communism, even for small issues, such as making photocopies
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.
The Goal (Goldratt 1992) and the movie of the same name, include a character named Herbie who slowed
down a troop of Boy Scouts as they hiked though the woods. Herbie is the “bottleneck” whose pace slowed
down the troop. The teaching points of the story for the Boy Scouts are (1) they needed to understand that
Herbie paced the operation (i.e., the troop could walk no faster than Herbie) and (2) they needed to help Herbie
with his load (i.e., the other Scouts took some of Herbie’s bedding and food so Herbie could walk faster). In the
end, the troop finished the hike on-time because it had better managed Herbie, the bottleneck.
According to TOC, the overall performance of a system can be improved when an organization identifies its
constraint (the bottleneck) and manages the bottleneck effectively. TOC promotes the following five-step
methodology:
1. Identify the system constraint – No improvement is possible unless the constraint or weakest link is found.
The constraint can often be discovered by finding the largest queue.
2. Exploit the system constraints – Protect the constraint (the bottleneck) so no capacity is wasted. Capacity
can be wasted by (1) starving (running out of work to process), (2) blocking (running out of an authorized
place to put completed work), (3) performing setups, or (4) working on defective or low-priority parts.
Therefore, it is important to allow the bottleneck to pace the production process, not allow the bottleneck to
be starved or blocked, focus setup reduction efforts on the bottleneck, increase lotsizes for the bottleneck,
and inspect products before the constraint so no bottleneck time is wasted on defective parts.
3. Subordinate everything else to the system constraint – Ensure that all other resources (the unconstrained
resources) support the system constraint, even if this reduces the efficiency of these resources. For example,
the other processes can produce smaller lotsizes so the constrained resource is never starved. The
unconstrained resources should never be allowed to overproduce.
4. Elevate the system constraints – If this resource is still a constraint, find more capacity. More capacity can
be found by working additional hours, using alternate routings, purchasing capital equipment, or
subcontracting.
5. Go back to Step 1 – After this constraint problem is solved, go back to the beginning and start over. This is
a continuous process of improvement.
Underlying Goldratt’s work is the notion of synchronous manufacturing, which refers to the entire
production process working in harmony to achieve the goals of the firm. When manufacturing is synchronized,
its emphasis is on total system performance, not on localized measures, such as labor or machine utilization.
The three primary TOC metrics are throughput (T), inventory (I), and operating expenses (OE), often called
T, I, and OE. Throughput is defined as sales revenue minus direct materials per time period. Inventory is
defined as direct materials at materials cost. Operating expenses include both labor and overhead. Bottleneck
management will result in increased throughput, reduced inventory, and the same or better operating expense.
See absorption costing, bill of resources, blocking, bottleneck, buffer management, CONWIP, critical chain,
current reality tree, Drum-Buffer-Rope (DBR), facility layout, future reality tree, gold parts, Herbie, Inventory
Dollar Days (IDD), lean thinking, opportunity cost, overhead, pacemaker, Pareto’s Law, process improvement
program, routing, setup cost, setup time reduction methods, starving, synchronous manufacturing, throughput
accounting, Throughput Dollar Days (TDD), transfer batch, utilization, variable costing, VAT analysis.
Theta Model – A forecasting model developed by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos (2000) that combines a long-
term and short-term forecast to create a new forecast; sometimes called the Theta Method.
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The Soviet Union was a secretive society, which meant that photocopies were rarely used.