Problems 113
3.3 In order to plan the volume of LAN traffic flow in a building, the system
administrator divided the building into three floors. Traffic volume trend in-
dicated the following hourly pattern. In the first floor, 60% of traffic is local,
30% of traffic goes to second floor, 10% of traffic goes to third floor. In the
second floor, 30% of traffic is local, 40% of traffic goes to first floor, 30%
of traffic goes to third floor. In the third floor, 60% of traffic is local, 30%
of traffic goes to first floor, 10% of traffic goes to second floor. Assuming
initially traffic volume is distributed as 10% in first floor, 40% in second floor,
and 50% in third floor,
(a) write the initial distribution vector for the total traffic
(b) construct the transition matrix for the Markov chain that describes the
traffic share of the three floors.
3.4 The transition matrix for a Markov chain is given by
P =
0.30.6
0.70.4
What does each entry represent?
3.5 A traffic data generator could be either idle or is generating data at five dif-
ferent rates λ
1
<λ
2
< ···<λ
5
. When idle, the source could equally likely
remain idle or it could start transmitting at the lowest rate λ
1
. When in the
highest rate state λ
5
, the source could equally likely remain in that state or it
could switch to the next lower rate λ
4
. When in the other states, the source
is equally likely to remain in its present state or it could start transmitting at
the next lower or higher rate. Identify the system states and write down the
transition matrix.
3.6 Repeat the above problem when transitions between the different states is
equally likely.
3.7 The market over reaction theory proposes that stocks with low return (called
“losers”) subsequently outperform stocks with high return (called “winners”)
over some observation period. The rest of the market share is stocks with
medium return (called “medium”). It was observed that winners split accord-
ing to the following ratios: 70% become losers, 25% become medium, and
5% stay winners. Medium stocks split according to the following ratios: 5%
become losers, 90% stay medium, and 5% become winers. Losers split ac-
cording to the following ratios: 80% stay losers, 5% become medium, and
15% become winners. The Markov chain representing the state of a stock is
defined as follows: s
0
represents loser stock, s
1
represent medium stock, and
s
2
represent winner stocks. Assuming an aggressive manager’s portfolio is
initially split among the stocks in the following percentages, 5% losers, 70%
medium, and 25% winners,
(a) write the initial distribution vector for the portfolio
(b) construct the transition matrix for the Markov chain that describes the
stock share of the portfolio.