Chapter 1
1-2 FM 7-0 12 December 2008
1-3. Operational environments will remain extremely fluid. Coalitions, alliances, partnerships, and actors
will change continually. Interagency and joint operations will be required to deal with this wide and intri-
cate range of players. International news organizations, using new information and communications tech-
nologies, will no longer depend on states to gain access to the area of operations. These organizations will
greatly influence how operations are viewed. They will have satellites or their own unmanned aerial recon-
naissance platforms from which to monitor the scene. Secrecy will be difficult to maintain, making opera-
tions security more vital than ever. Finally, complex cultural, demographic, and physical factors will be
present, adding to the fog of war. Such factors include humanitarian crises and ethnic and religious differ-
ences. In addition, complex and urban terrain will often become major centers of gravity and havens for
potential threats. Tomorrow’s operational environments will be interconnected, dynamic, and extremely
volatile.
TYPES OF THREATS
1-4. States, nations, transnational actors, and nonstate entities will continue to challenge and redefine the
global distribution of power, concept of sovereignty, and nature of warfare. Threats are nation-states, or-
ganizations, people, groups, conditions, or natural phenomena able to damage or destroy life, vital re-
sources, or institutions. Preparing for and managing these threats requires employing all instruments of na-
tional power—diplomatic, informational, military, and economic. Threats may be described through a
range of four major categories or challenges: traditional, irregular, catastrophic, and disruptive. While help-
ful in describing threats the Army is likely to face, these categories do not define the nature of an adver-
sary. In fact, adversaries may use any and all of these challenges in combination to achieve the desired ef-
fect against the United States.
1-5. Traditional threats emerge from states employing recognized military capabilities and forces in un-
derstood forms of military competition and conflict. In the past, the United States optimized its forces for
this challenge. The United States currently possesses the world’s preeminent conventional and nuclear
forces, but this status is not guaranteed. Many nations maintain powerful conventional forces, and not all
are friendly to the United States. Some of these potentially hostile powers possess weapons of mass de-
struction. Although these powers may not actively seek armed confrontation and may actively avoid U.S.
military strength, their activities can provoke regional conflicts that threaten U.S. interests. Deterrence
therefore remains the first aim of the joint force. Should deterrence fail, the United States strives to main-
tain capabilities to overmatch any combination of enemy conventional and unconventional forces.
1-6. Irregular threats are those posed by an opponent employing unconventional, asymmetric methods
and means to counter traditional U.S. advantages. A weaker enemy often uses irregular warfare to exhaust
the U.S. collective will through protracted conflict. Irregular warfare includes such means as terrorism, in-
surgency, and guerrilla warfare. Economic, political, informational, and cultural initiatives usually accom-
pany, and may even be the chief means of, irregular attacks on U.S. influence.
1-7. Catastrophic threats involve the acquisition, possession, and use of nuclear, biological, chemical, and
radiological weapons, also called weapons of mass destruction. Possession of these weapons gives an ene-
my the potential to inflict sudden and catastrophic effects. The proliferation of related technology has made
this threat more likely than in the past.
1-8. Disruptive threats involve an enemy using new technologies that reduce U.S. advantages in key op-
erational domains. Disruptive threats involve developing and using breakthrough technologies to negate
current U.S. advantages in key operational domains.
NATURE OF FUTURE CONFLICT
1-9. By combining traditional, disruptive, catastrophic, and irregular capabilities, adversaries will seek to
create advantageous conditions by quickly changing the nature of the conflict and moving to employ capa-
bilities for which the United States is least prepared. The enemy will seek to interdict U.S. forces attempt-
ing to enter any crisis area. If U.S. forces successfully gain entry, the enemy will seek engagement in com-
plex terrain and urban environments as a way of offsetting U.S. advantages. Methods used by adversaries