640 Topics in atmospheric thermodynamics
which we convert to ground and atmospheric temperatures with equations (13.56) and
(13.57).
We now use these equations to analyze the effects of some of the radiative energy transfer
parameters on average global temperature. Among these, the following are the ones that are
likely to be most variable.
(i) A
a,λt
, the long-wavelength absorptivity of the atmosphere, which is sensitive to the
atmospheric concentration of infrared active molecules such as CO
2
,H
2
O and CH
4
.
(ii) R
g,λs
, the reflectivity of ground for solar radiation (i.e. the albedo of the planet’s
surface), which is strongly affected by ice and snow cover, as well as by vegetation.
(iii) R
a,λs
, the fraction of solar radiation reflected by the upper atmosphere, which can
be affected by fine dust, soot and sulfur dioxide crystals such as can be produced by
volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts and missile-launch-button-happy individuals.
We study the effects of these three parameters, and assume that the absorptivity of the
atmosphere for solar radiation, which is controlled to a significant extent by oxygen con-
centration, and the absorptivity of the ground for infrared radiation have the constant values
A
a,λs
= 0.2 and A
g,λt
= 0.95 (hence, R
g,λt
= 0.05). We will also assume that the solar
constant equals its present-day value of 1368 Wm
−2
.
Figure 13.8 shows the effects of A
a,λt
and R
g,λs
. The solid circle on the leftmost panel
shows the equilibrium temperature for a black body Earth (∼ 278 K, see Worked Example
12.3). We then add A
a,λs
=0.2 and A
g,λt
=0.95 and reasonable values (taken from de Pater &
Lissauer, 2001, and Chamberlain & Hunten, 1987) for the present day surface albedo (R
g,λs
.
= 0.3) and atmospheric reflectivity (R
a,λs
=0.1). Without greenhouse warming (A
a,λt
=0)
the equilibrium ground temperature drops to ∼249 K, shown by the open circle. The diagram
shows that a temperature comparable to the present-day average surface temperature of the
Earth (∼288 K, shown by the diamond) is attained with A
a,λt
=0.9. This is our starting point
for the other panels in the figure. The one on top shows the effect of increasing A
a,λt
beyond
this value while holding the albedo, R
g,λs
, constant. An increase of ∼10% in the infrared
absorptivity of the atmosphere raises ground temperature by about 8 K. To put this number in
perspective, the increase in global temperatures since the Pleistocene is about 6 K, of which
1–2 K are the result of anthropogenic causes since the Industrial Revolution. Rising global
temperatures cause glaciers and sea ice to melt, lowering the planetary albedo. The effect
of decreasing R
g,λs
at constant A
a,λt
= 0.9 is shown in the bottom center panel. In reality
both parameters are coupled: as A
a,λt
increases so does global temperature, causing R
g,λs
to
drop. The functional relationship between the two parameters is complex and is in fact one
of several sources of uncertainty in global warming models. The coupling does not depend
on radiative heat transport, but rather on physical, chemical and biological interactions
between the atmosphere, the oceans and the solid surface. The figure suggests that a strong
coupling between the two parameters can plausibly raise average global temperatures by
10–15 K, which may result in ice-free conditions comparable to those that existed during
much of the Mesozoic.
The effect of changes in the solar radiation reflectivity of the atmosphere, R
a,λs
, is shown
in Fig. 13.9. Here we keep A
a,λt
constant at 0.9. In the top panel we vary R
a,λs
from 0.1
to 0.2, while keeping R
g,λs
constant. As global temperatures drop, one expects that ice
and snow cover will increase, raising the planetary albedo and thus further lowering surface
temperatures (bottom right panel).As in the previous case, coupling between the two effects
is very complex and I will not attempt to include it. Strong coupling in this case could lead